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Simplified time accounting for ILUC

Explore the challenges of integrating land use change (ILUC) factors into greenhouse gas intensity calculations for biofuel production. The paper suggests methods to account for ILUC emissions with minimal assumptions and the implications of delayed actions on emissions.

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Simplified time accounting for ILUC

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  1. Simplified time accounting for ILUC Michael O’Hare University of California, Berkeley July 2010 EWG VII-10 O'Hare

  2. Variables • Gv = “direct” – variable emissions from one MJ production • Gc = ILUC – capital investment emissions for one MJ production capacity EWG VII-10 O'Hare

  3. Challenge • Amortizing Gc into a variable cost • requires knowing production period • Ignores atmospheric persistence & cumulative warming • Should include a discount rate • combine Gv and Gc with minimal assumptions to generate a per-MJ GHG intensity EWG VII-10 O'Hare

  4. Kløverpris & Mueller: ILUC accelerates conversion EWG VII-10 O'Hare

  5. Implication of K-M model A single year of biofuel production, if cropland is overall increasing for other reasons, displaces ILUC that would occur anyway to one year earlier. EWG VII-10 O'Hare

  6. Note that: • All discharges in this model occur within a year of each other, so residence time, analytic horizon, etc. don’t matter • There is no avoiding a discount rate, for any action with a time delay component EWG VII-10 O'Hare

  7. If ILUC is land clearing that will occur anyway next year, (annual land clearing > biofuel ILUC) Example: US corn ethanol, Hertel et al Gc Gtotal = 60 + (800 x .05/1.05) = 98 EWG VII-10 O'Hare

  8. Refinements • Production discharges might be discounted half a year (as though occurring in the middle of the year) • Delayed afforestation needs to be handled with a complete time model EWG VII-10 O'Hare

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