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Opatija. Tanker Chartering Report October 2008. Tanker Market Volatile. 2005-2007 2007-2008 BDTI - 60% + 70% BCTI - 61% + 82%. Baltic Dirty Tanker Index January 2005-October 2008. Baltic Clean Tanker Index January 2005-October 2008. Tanker Chartering Report. Bunker Prices in Rotterdam

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Opatija

Opatija

TankerCharteringReport

October2008


Tanker market volatile
Tanker Market Volatile

2005-20072007-2008

BDTI- 60%+ 70%

BCTI- 61%+ 82%


Baltic dirty tanker index january 2005 october 2008
BalticDirtyTankerIndexJanuary2005-October2008


Baltic clean tanker index january 2005 october 2008
BalticCleanTankerIndexJanuary2005-October2008


Tanker chartering report
TankerCharteringReport

Bunker Prices in Rotterdam

Rose from $390 to $557 per tonne

Plus 45.5%

Peaking @ $729.50 July ’08

Now $357


Tanker chartering report1
Tanker Chartering Report

  • Global Oil Demand up 1.3% yoy

  • Actual +0.97 (1.5m) b/d 2007

    +0.43 (2.2m) b/d 2008

  • Oil Price $90/bbl 2009

  • Now $72


Tanker chartering report2
TankerChartering Report

Low level of oil stocks – worldwide

Heavy refinery maintenance

High USA demand after hurricane damage

Increased OPEC output/oil on water

Japan + China restocking

Hebei Spirit – December 9 2007


Tanker chartering report3
Tanker Chartering Report

  • China + 4.6% yoy driven by

    Car ownership + 1,000 cars per day

    air travel

    construction

    agriculture

    petrochemicals

    oil stocks


Tanker chartering report4
Tanker Chartering Report

Oil Demand (2007)

India +5.0%

North America +0.47%

Europe -2.2%


Tanker chartering report5
Tanker Chartering Report

  • Clean Tanker Trades

    Directionless despite

    Refinery problems in the Atlantic basin.

    More exports from Europe

    Congestion problems in discharge areas

    India increasingly a supplier to Europe and Asia


Tanker chartering report6
Tanker Chartering Report

  • Growth of tanker fleet 2.7% dwt in first

    9 months of 2008 (net)

  • 66 single hull tankers gone for conversion to Storage, FPSO or VLOCs

  • Double Hull Fleet = 76% of existing fleet


Tanker chartering report7
Tanker Chartering Report

  • VLCC average earnings:

    • 2006 $60,289

    • 2007 $54,979

    • 2008 $100,500 (to date)

    • 3 Oct $85,693


Tanker chartering report8
Tanker Chartering Report

  • Future influences (Short Term):

    Alternative

    Suppliers & pipelines

    Fuel/coal/gas

    Response to “green” legislation


Tanker chartering report9
Tanker Chartering Report

  • Future influences (long term):

  • 15 years/+ end of production from the largest fields found in last 40 yrs:

    North Sea/Alaska/Sakhalin

    New deep water finds:

    Brazil/Gulf of Mexico


Tanker chartering report10
Tanker Chartering Report

  • Future influences (Long Term):

    Current finds are smaller capacity – indicating maintenance of high oil price = $ ???

    or no return to low oil price

    = $ 20


Tanker market
Tanker Market

Lookout

For the

Hurricane!