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U.S. EPA Global Change Research Program: Getting the Job Done Right. Board of Scientific Counselors U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Global Change Research Program Washington, DC – September 27, 2005. Kenneth A. Colburn Symbiotic Strategies, LLC [email protected]

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U s epa global change research program getting the job done right

U.S. EPAGlobal Change Research Program:Getting the Job Done Right

Board of Scientific Counselors

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Global Change Research Program

Washington, DC – September 27, 2005

Kenneth A. Colburn

Symbiotic Strategies, LLC

[email protected]

617-784-6975


Speaker background
Speaker Background

  • Business & Industry Association of NH, Energy & Environment

  • New Hampshire’s Air Director

    • First GHG registry & power sector “4-P” laws.

  • STAPPA Climate Chair

    • Represented states at UNFCCC COPs last 10 years.

  • NESCAUM Executive Director

  • Center for Climate Strategies, etc.

    • Climate planning processes: CT, ME, AZ, NM, NC…


GCRP: How’s It Doing?(How)

  • GOAL: Enhance likelihood of human health and environmental improvement by informing policy decisions in a timely fashion.

  • Cornerstone for effective state & local decisions: “If it’s not specific to here, it’s marginally useful.”

    • “Place-Based” state-specific approaches are the sine qua non for state & local decision making.

  • What information do decision makers need? Talk with them! (i.e., need stakeholder orientation)

    • Some education often needed, but not one way!

    • Creates upward spiral: Stakeholder questions & input => better assessments => more questions & input...


GCRP: How’s It Doing?(What)

  • Areas of focused assessment are very sound:

    • Air Quality

    • Water Quality

    • Human Health

    • Ecosystems

  • But… We don’t only want static assessments; “Teach us to fish…”

    • Leverage, empower decision makers with tools and models


and Opportunities

Water

Eco-

systems

Infra-

structure

Risks

Human

Health

Air

Opportunities

First-Mover

Advantage

“Tune” the

Economy

Competitive

Advantage

Climate Risks …

Climate

Impacts

Defense

(Respond)

Offense

(Lead)


Sustainability

Energy Efficiency & Renewables Path

(MORE jobs, reliable,

secure, clean, and

exportable)

Competitive Advantage

Lost to

Delay

Energy Intensity Path

(LESS jobs, reliable, secure, clean, and

exportable)

Now

Later

Example: Energy Opportunities

Higher

ECONOMIC

EFFICIENCY

Lower

TIME


Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program

Competitive Advantage Example

  • Who will be first “out of” paper, and “into” furniture?

  • UK has PRECIS; EU has PRUDENCE; Quebec has OURANOS; what do U.S. states have to “tune” their economies?


Global Climate

Models

Meteorology

Health/Valuation

Function

Policy Goal

Emissions

Energy

Ozone Model

O3; PM Models

Health Benefits

Emissions

Expenditures

Ambient

Concentrations

Economics

Wet/Dry

Deposition;

Ag/Forests

Health

Effects

Incidence &

Cost-

Benefit

Key

Economic

Indicators

Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality



Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality

Global Climate

Models

Regional-Scale

(or Finer)

Climate Models

Meteorology

Health/Valuation

Function

Policy Goal

Emissions

Climate

Impacts Models

Energy

Ozone Model

O3 & PM Models

Health Benefits

Emissions

Expenditures

Ambient

Concentrations

& Temp

Economics

Wet/Dry

Deposition;

Ag/Forests

Costs,

Benefits, &

Adaptations

due to

Climate

Change

Health

Effects

Incidence &

Cost-

Benefit

Key

Economic

Indicators

NE-MARKAL

CMAQ

COBRA & BenMAP

REMI? IMPLAN?


Meeting decision makers “where they’re at…”

Key Conclusions (1)

  • GCRP = underpinning state air quality progress.

  • GCRP is right-on-the-money with How; What.

    • Place-based approach

    • Stakeholder orientation

    • Areas of focused assessment

    • Development of / support for air quality, health, energy, and economic models

  • Bottom line: “When decision makers recognize that they need more info, you’re doing the right thing…”


Key Conclusions (2)

  • Success isn’t static; states need:

    • More assessments

      • Impact of climate change on air quality, especially ozone & PM nonattainment

      • Non-linear responses scare us greatly

    • More models, modeling

      • Economic modeling

      • Adaptation options modeling

      • Environmental health tracking

    • Broader application & communication

  • Greater Level of Effort => More Resources, but there’s literally no more important or productive effort underway.


Thank Youfor Your Timeand Attention!


Is It Working in the States?

  • Look at Connecticut (partial list):

    • CGA approved 2005 CT Climate Action Plan.

    • Clean cars (Pavley/LEV) & hybrid tax incentives.

    • Mandatory reporting, registry & inventory.

    • Energy Independence Act– EE, RE, CHP, DG, etc.

    • RPS & renewable energy purchases.

    • Energy efficiency standards for appliances.

    • Environmentally preferable products.

    • Agriculture, land preservation & local food.

    • NG Conservation Fund (proposed).

    • Oil Conservation Fund (proposed).

    • Diesel reductions (being proposed).


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