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Regional Climate Model Results for Climate Impacts Applications

Regional Climate Model Results for Climate Impacts Applications. Eric Salathé Science & Technology Program, UW Bothell Climate Impacts Group, UW Seattle Alan Hamlet (UW), Neil Banas (UW), Brian Lamb (WSU). Regional climate change scenarios. “Downscale” global scenarios to add local details

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Regional Climate Model Results for Climate Impacts Applications

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  1. Regional Climate Model Results for Climate Impacts Applications Eric Salathé Science & Technology Program, UW BothellClimate Impacts Group, UW Seattle Alan Hamlet (UW), Neil Banas (UW), Brian Lamb (WSU)

  2. Regional climate change scenarios • “Downscale” global scenarios to add local details • There is a hierarchy of methods depending on the details needed • More sophisticated methods can expand the class of impacts problems we can consider • Should downscaling change the large-scale trends from the global model?

  3. Delta Method:Simplest Climate Change Scenarios Composite IPCC AR 4 Simulations for the Pacific Northwest A1B Medium High B1 Low Jan Jul Figure shows change compared with 1970 -1999 average Climate Impacts Group 2009, WA Assessment, Ch. 1 http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml

  4. Application of Delta Method:Change in Long-Term Mean April 1 Snowpack

  5. Regional Climate Model12-km WRF Snohomish River Near Monroe, WA

  6. Multi-scale and Ensemble Modeling of Global Change and Air Quality

  7. Differences from 1990s to 2050s Summer Temperature PCM-MM5 A2 ECHAM5-WRF2 A1B ECHAM5-WRF3 A1B Change in T (°C) CCSM3-WRF2 A1B CCSM3-WRF2 A2

  8. Differences from 1990s to 2050s Summer Mixed-layer Depth Change in PBL (m)

  9. A1B_Base – Current Decade Average Daily 8-hr Maximum O3June through August • Several ppb increase in O3 throughout most of the country • Slight decrease in O3 along west and east coastal zones

  10. Linking Climate, Ocean, BiologyNOAA ECOHAB Steph Moore, NOAA NWFSC Eric Salathé, UW Bothell Cheryl Greengrove, UW Tacoma Neil Banas, UW APL Nate Mantua, UW Fish AlexandriumCatenella

  11. Delta Method:Future HAB projections The “Window of Opportunity” for Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB-WOO) Projected to become more frequent and last longer Moore, Mantuaand Salathe, 2011

  12. Projected changes in summertime along-shore winds Stronger northerly winds -> more upwelling

  13. Conclusions • Different approaches are needed for different applications • What information can we get from climate models? • What is left out that we need to know • How can we add that information?

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