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2009 Energy Market Forecast: Natural Gas, Electricity, and Global Oil Dynamics

The 2009 energy market outlook highlights a tight supply/demand balance for natural gas, driven by industrial sector demand weakness due to the recession. Despite weak pricing, support for natural gas prices is anticipated as deregulated power markets follow market trends. Global oil and diesel prices are depressed amidst economic downturns, but future stabilization calls for recovery in pricing. Watch for regional nuances in pricing, especially in Texas, California, and New York. Insights from Tim Statts, VP of Risk Management at Summit Energy.

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2009 Energy Market Forecast: Natural Gas, Electricity, and Global Oil Dynamics

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  1. Commodities Covered • US Natural Gas • US Electricity • Global Crude Oil • US Diesel

  2. Natural Gas

  3. Price History

  4. US Production Pullback

  5. Canada Production Decline to Continue

  6. Global LNG Supply to Increase in 2009

  7. Weather-Driven Heating Demand

  8. Gas-Fired Generation Capacity Growth 2009 EIA Estimates

  9. Recession Hinders Industrial Activity

  10. US Natural Gas Price Forecast

  11. Electric Power

  12. Power Generation by Source Texas California New York PJM

  13. Northern California 2009 Forwards

  14. ERCOT 2009 On-Peak Wholesale Forwards

  15. New York Zone J 2009 On-Peak Forwards

  16. PJM (PA-NJ-MD) 2009 On-Peak Forwards

  17. Crude Oil

  18. Price History

  19. OECD Demand Plummets

  20. China Signals Non-OECD Weakness

  21. Non-Opec Supply Growth Struggles

  22. Opec Cuts Aggressively *Bloomberg Data

  23. Strong US Crude Oil Stock Position

  24. Crude Oil Price Forecast

  25. Diesel Fuel

  26. Where to Watch

  27. Decoupling Falls Apart - China

  28. Chinese Diesel Demand Falters

  29. Has China Stabilized?

  30. Still Awaiting the US Turnaround…

  31. Demand Growth Depends on Econ Recovery

  32. Retail Diesel Price Forecast

  33. Overview • The deteriorating economy has reduced the demand outlook for natural gas, particularly by the industrial sector. Weak pricing and tighter credit conditions have reduced the supply outlook. As a result, the supply/demand balance is expected to be tight, providing support to prices from currently weak levels. • Look for most deregulated power markets to largely follow the natural gas market, although some regional nuances could drive prices for short periods of time near settlement. • The global recession is weighing heavily on global oil demand and prices. Low prices create a challenging environment for supply development, however, which sets the stage for a strong price recovery when demand returns. • Global diesel prices will continue to perform poorly as long as the global economy is in a tailspin. Once economic growth stabilizes, we expect the market to begin to recover in fairly short order.

  34. Tim Statts Vice President, Risk Management tstatts@summitenergy.com www.summitenergy.com 502.753.3148

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