Global Climate Change and Risk Society

1. Global Climate Change as Globalizational Risk Society– Glocalizational Risk GovernanceChou, Kuei-TienNational Taiwan UniversityOctober 28 2005

2. Global Climate Change and Risk Society Five theses: 1. Why does global climate change emerge? 2. What does global climate change mean? 3. What are the characters of global climate change? 4. How does the threat of global climate change be resolved? 5. Where is the glocal risk governance in terms of tech-industrial policy?

3. Thesis 1: Why does global climate change emerge? • Development of sci-technological breakthrough since 1830 • Industrialization • Mass production and mass consumption • Modernization is driven by such tech-industrialized development

4. Industrial Society → Transportations • Horses, donkeys, and camels • Bikes

5. Industrial Society → Transportations 3.Automobiles 4.Ships 5.Planes

6. Thesis 1: Why does global climate change emerge? • From modern industrialization to modern tremendous environment pollutions • Global climate change is made by and in the industrial society

7. Next Factory Emissions

8. Factory Emissions Next

9. Next Incinerator Emissions

10. Back Coal-fired Train Emissions

11. Volcano Eruption Back

12. Industrial Society → Pollution • Smog 2.Drainage, 3.Global Ocean warming

13. Discovery of Acid Rain • In the outset of the 1950s, fishery production dropped without cause in North Europe countries such as Sweden and Norway. • Until the 1960s, Europe started to pay attention on problem of acid rain and set up Atmosphere Chemical Monitor Network. It is therefore proved that problem of acid rain is a cross-continental environmental issue. Main Menu

14. Five theses: 1. Why does global climate change emerge? 2. What does global climate change mean? 3. What are the characters of global climate change? 4. How does the threat of global climate change be resolved? 5. Where is the glocal risk governance in terms of tech-industrial policy?

15. Thesis 2: What does global climate change mean? • The industrialized Modernization confronts the huge threats and disasters made by itself • It constructs the industrialized risk society which is called half/broken modernity • Risk society of modern world faces radically its unintended consequence, threats not only locally but also globally

16. Thesis 2: What does global climate change mean? • Global climate change is regarded as one part of world risk society • The world risk society is constructed in terms of globalizational tech-industrial exchange and competition • Globalizational risk society of climate change becomes new self-threat civilization

17. Man-made Pollutions 圖片 • Sulfur dioxide (二氧化硫) • Nox (氮氧化物) • Hydrochloric acid (氯化氫) Back

18. Next Death of Fishes

19. Next Fish of Acid Lakes (酸湖魚)

20. Next Acid Soil & Decreased Production

21. Next Death of Plants

22. Next Death of Plants

23. Next Corroded architecture (Cultural diversity)

24. Corroded architecture (Cultural diversity) Next

25. Five theses: 1. Why does global climate change emerge? 2. What does global climate change mean? 3. What are the characters of global climate change? 4. How does the threat of global climate change be resolved? 5. Where is the glocal risk governance in terms of tech-industrial policy?

26. Thesis 3 : What are the characters of global climate change? • Scientific uncertainty of causing global climate change • Scientific contests of Resolution of global climate change • Global tech-industrial competition makes the problem more complex • But the threat and resolution of global risk climate change is urgent

27. Definition of Risk in the Industrial Society: Scientific view: Inherent uncertainty of science (Bacon). Industrial society: Risk is a side effect under ideology of progress and is controllable, countable, and amendable, thus risk assessment and risk cost externalization developed.

28. Definition of Risk Society: Industrial Risk Society:In the risk society, risk involves many technological, political, economic, ecological, and social ethical factors. Risks are considered uncontrollable, uncountable, and non-amendable.

29. Post-normal Science: High Post-normal science Interests of decision-making Professional consultation Applied science Low High Systematical uncertainty

30. Post-normal Science • High uncertainty of social system • High value disputes • Determination dilemma • Urgent decision-making • Global climate change as example due to scientific uncertainty

31. Old Paradigms v.s. New Paradigms • Old paradigm: Risk assessment of industrial society • Predictability • Controllability partial / limited risks • Accountability • Offset • New paradigm: risk assessment of risk society • Unpredictability • Uncontrollability regional / global risks • Unaccountability • Non-offset • Global climate change as example

32. Modes of Risk Spreading • Old paradigm: risk assessment of industrial society • Limited / partial regional spreading • With limited / partial spreading speed • With limited / partial affected regions • New paradigm: risk assessment of risk society • Regional global spreading • With rapid spreading speed / spread through global nerworks • With cross-field / multi-field impacts of risk spreading • Global climate change as example

33. Risk Assessment Disputes • Old paradigm: risk assessment of industrial society • Low to average technological complexity and uncertainty • Low to average organizational complexity and uncertainty • Low public disputes • New paradigm: risk assessment or risk society • High technological complexity and uncertainty • High organizational complexity and uncertainty • High public disputes due to uncertainty • Global climate change as example

34. Five theses: 1. Why does global climate change emerge? 2. What does global climate change mean? 3. What are the characters of global climate change? 4. How does the threat of global climate change be resolved? 5. Where is the glocal risk governance in terms of tech-industrial policy?

35. Thesis 4: How does the threat of global climate change revolve? • Globalizaitonal risk society of climate change could be resolved by governance • Risk governance includes the policies of states` environment and tech-industry as well as the movement of NGO/NPO • Glocal risk governance will influence dialectically the other country policy and development and take feedback to the globalizational level

36. Five theses: 1. Why does global climate change emerge? 2. What does global climate change mean? 3. What are the characters of global climate change? 4. How does the threat of global climate change be resolved? 5. Where is the glocal risk governance in terms of tech-industrial policy?

37. Thesis 5: Where is the glocal risk governance in terms of tech-industrial policy? • Checking the Taiwan environment policy: National Energy conference in 1998, 2005 • Checking the movement of local NGO/NPO • Checking the government policy of tech-industry

38. Checking the Taiwan environment policy: National Energy conference in 1998 and 2005

39. Checking the Taiwan environment policy: National Energy Conference in 1998 and 2005 • Total amount of CO2 emission in Taiwan in 1990 was 103 million tons. • Amount of CO2 emission in Taiwan in 2000 increased to 218 million tons. In 2004, it mounted to 250 million tons which ranked 22nd globally. • In Taiwan, regarding energy consumption, each person consumes high as 4468 KLOEs (公升油當量) per year (2002), per square kilometer consumes 2750 TOEs (噸油當量); positioned at the first in terms of energy consumption density. For energy consumption density of per person, it ranked only second to the US but higher than Japan and Germany. (Reported in China Times, June11.2004, 歐陽喬暉).

40. Checking the Taiwan environment policy: National Energy conference in 1998 and 2005 • Emission Reduction Measures of 1998 National Energy Conference (全國能源會議): - To reduce CO2 emission by 23 million tons in 2010 - To reduce CO2 emission by 71 million tons in 2015 - To reduce CO2 emission by 121 million tons in 2020 - To reduce Co2 emission by 170 million tons in 2025 • Kyoto Protocol became effect since Feb. 16th 2005. • 2005 National Energy Conference (June):Emission reduction goals set in 1998 were cancelled.

41. Checking the movement of local NGO/NPO

42. NGO protest picture

43. Checking the government policy of tech-industry

44. Checking the government policy of tech-industry • “Two Trillion Double Start ” Industrial Investment: Ministry of Economic Affairs announced to support Chinese Petroleum Corp.’s No. 8 Naphtha (中油八輕) and Formosa Petrochemical Corporation’s Steel Refining Planet (台塑煉鋼廠). • In 2003, greenhouse gas emission amount (溫室氣體排放量) of industrial units contributes 51.8% of the total Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Main are industries of steel-refining, petrochemical, electronics, cement, and papermaking, which contribute three-fourth of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of industrial units. • In 2010, CO2 emission will immediately increase 49.1 million tons after the implementation of these two “Two Trillion Double Start ” projects.

45. Conclusion: Tech-policy and Climate Change • Technocrats delay and ignore the global trend of dealing with threat of climate change • Logic of “valuing industrial development and ignoring risks” • Lack of long term vision on global trend of developing green technology • Ignore seriousness of Kyoto Protocol might lead to trade sanctions • NGO protest movements play weak roles, although they have invoked public awareness of wrongful tech-industrial policy in relation to global climate change

46. Thanks for paying attention