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James Salsman jim@talknicer Sustainability Jam 22-24 November 2013 CBi China Bridge, Shanghai PowerPoint Presentation
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A quick variety of business models promoting, effecting, and compatible with sustainability 一个快速多元的经营模式持续地相互促进,影响,兼容 talknicer.com/susjam. James Salsman jim@talknicer.com Sustainability Jam 22-24 November 2013 CBi China Bridge, Shanghai. Introduction to James Salesman 詹姆斯塞尔斯曼的简介.

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A quick variety of business models promoting, effecting, and compatible with sustainability一个快速多元的经营模式持续地相互促进,影响,兼容talknicer.com/susjam

James Salsman

jim@talknicer.com

Sustainability Jam

22-24 November 2013

CBi China Bridge, Shanghai

introduction to james salesman
Introduction to James Salesman詹姆斯塞尔斯曼的简介
  • Carnegie Mellon-trained statistician working since the 1990s on pronunciation assessment using speech recognition for language learning and at EF in Shanghai since May 2013.
  • 卡耐基梅隆训练有素的统计学者,自1990年开始从事语音识别软件开发工作。2013年5月来到上海,目前在英孚教育机构工作。
  • Hobbies include evaluating peer reviewed secondary academic journal literature, which uses statistics to describe the confidence and significance of inferences, and editing Wikipedia.
  • 业余爱好包括评论同行业的学术文献,通过统计数据来推论事物的发展方向,和编辑维基百科
  • http://talknicer.com/about

talknicer.com/susjam

this is what we must do to survive
This is what we must do to survive这是我们为了生存必须做的

45亿吨级的二氧化碳

在过去十年里没有放慢

要求减少50%的几率不超过2摄氏度

石油危机

战后繁荣

大萧条

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we will do it because solar and wind power are growing so fast
We will do it, because solar and wind power are growing so fast我们将能做到这一点,因为太阳能和风能电力增长非常快

能源生产(亿吨标准油)

石油

煤炭

天燃气

水电

核能

风能

生物燃料

太阳能

地热能

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even if solar power did not exist wind power alone is growing fast enough
Even if solar power did not exist, wind power alone is growing fast enough即使不存在太阳能、单凭风能的增长速度也足够快

全球累积风外推

十亿瓦特

talknicer.com/susjam

scope of this talk does not include
Scope of this talk does not include:这个话题的范围不包括:
  • Any business opportunities that existing companies are likely to be able to address
  • 公司有可能实现的经济价值
    • Traditional forms of renewable energy
    • 传统形式的可再生能源
    • Synthetic carbon neutral fuels: require large chemical engineering infrastructure
    • 合成碳中性燃料:需要的大型化学工程基础设施
      • Petro-conglomerates already have this佩特罗集团已经有这个
    • Batteries: very competitive industry电池:竞争非常激烈的行业
    • Pumped hydro storage: constrained by geography
    • 抽水蓄能存储:受地理限制
    • Compressed air storage: too new for likely success
    • 压缩空气存储:太新,可能成功

talknicer.com/susjam

shipping container based wind power
Shipping container-based wind power航运基于容器的风力发电
  • Makani Power (acquired by Google, 2012)
  • 马卡尼电力公司(被谷歌收购,2012)
    • http://www.makanipower.com/home/
    • Likely to very rapidly displace traditional tower-based wind farms, including by scrapping
    • 可能很快取代传统的塔式风力农场,包括撤掉
      • Because they cost less than half and produce twice as much per land area, and they can go on ordinary trucks
      • 因为在相同的土地面积里,他们产生的费用相对少了一半,产出却多了两倍,并且他们可以用普通的卡车运作
    • Logistics of marketing, sales, installation, grid integration, support and repair services vastly larger than current Makani staffing levels can support.
    • 物流的市场营销、销售、安装、网格集成、支持和维修服务远远大于目前的马卡尼员工可承受的水平。
      • Google is very likely to outsource these efforts
      • 谷歌很可能将这些工作外包出去

talknicer.com/susjam

shipping container based wind power1
Shipping container-based wind power航运基于容器的风力发电

M5规格

翼梁:碳纤维

翼皮肤: E-玻璃

额定功率:5mw

一代系统:8无刷直流电机

范围

满额定功率风速:11.5米/秒

操作高度范围:350 - 600 m

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结构:略高于钢制碳纤维

导体:铝

盘旋半径:265米

shipping container based wind power2
Shipping container-based wind power航运基于容器的风力发电

机翼面积是一个传统的沿其路径圈模仿的涡轮叶片。像一架飞机,襟翼在机翼上,由机载计算机推动控制飞行路径的翼。

翼装转子捕获风能因为它冲刷过机翼,并把它转化为电能,用小的,直流驱动发电机

范围是由一个核心的高强度纤维导体包围。缆索携带牵引力的机翼传输电力到地面

1,在启动前,在不利的条件下,翼是装在顶部的晶石浮标

3、在操作中,翼盘旋在一个圆形的在海拔400米路径上。

2、翼启动和平地盘旋像直升机那样

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shipping container based wind power3
Shipping container-based wind power航运基于容器的风力发电

AWT风筝农场安装

在缆索长度

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seawater carbon extraction
Seawater carbon extraction 海水碳萃取
  • Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) owns this:
  • 帕洛阿尔托研究中心(PARC)拥有这个:
    • http://talknicer.com/co2extraction.pdf
    • These will manifest as likely very large or outright giant plants on ocean ports
    • 这些都将表现为海岸的可能非常大或非常彻底的巨型植物
    • Very opaque commercialization prospects很不透明的商业化前景
      • PARC may be fielding lock-up offers from petroleum companies who are likely to be severely disrupted
      • 由于可能受到严重干扰,PARC也许会从石油公司发出禁售公告。
      • However, their DARPA funding contract almost certainly requires reasonable and customary licensing terms
      • 然而,他们的DARPA资金合同几乎肯定需要合理和符合惯例的许可条款
      • Coastal and island jurisdictions may choose to opt out of patent encumbrance on national security grounds
      • 沿海和岛屿国家的司法可能以国家安全为由选择取消专利阻碍

talknicer.com/susjam

seawater carbon extraction1
Seawater carbon extraction海水碳萃取

正极

负极

电极溶液出

膜堆

阳极(+)

海水在(底)

电极溶液进

BPMED单位

海水进(酸)

底座出

酸析

真空泵

电源

阀门

二氧化碳流量计

PH值传感器

BPMED单位

膜接触器

膜接触器

压力表

电极液

二氧化碳解析装置

输入罐(海水)

流量传感器

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抽水

电极溶液

废物收集箱

income equality
Income equality收入平等
  • Very complicated political history, but a mistake by Yale Professor Arthur Okun is the source of most of the confusion:
  • 非常复杂的政治历史,但是普林斯顿教授的一个错误困惑是有关于能源的问题
    • http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2011/09/berg.htm
  • Very profound and wide-ranging implications, especially in China
  • 非常深刻和广泛的影响,特别是在中国
    • New unoccupied property transaction tax: 20%
    • 新的空置房产交易税收:20%
    • Property tax announced last weekNew down-payment for second urban home:
    • 70% 上周宣布,房产税—新首付第二城市家庭:70%
  • Likely to cause continued sharp increases in the broad healthcare sectors•
  • 可能导致在广泛的医疗保健行业持续迅速增长

talknicer.com/susjam

income equality1
Income equality收入平等

收入增长周期的长短跟不同的影响因素有关,这就使得收入分配显得相当重要,而其他影响因素较小

(改变预期增长持续时间、百分比)

外国直接投资

汇率竞争力

外部债务

收入分配

政治机构

贸易开放

talknicer.com/susjam

high yield bond funds
High-yield bond funds高收益债券基金
  • Likely destination of most Chinese investment savings as real estate becomes less attractive
  • 大多数中国人利用储蓄投资房地产变得不那么有吸引力
  • Stock market is far too volatile under command economy
  • 在中央调控经济下的股市太动荡
  • Chinese bond market has been remarkably stable and consistent, including through crises
  • 中国债券市场一直相当稳定一致,包括经历危机的时候
  • Returns have been about half of investment grade U.S. high-yield bond funds with 30+ constituents
  • 回报率大约达到一半的美国投资型高收益债券基金与30+成分股

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high yield bond funds1
High-yield bond funds高收益债券基金

上海证券交易所综合

上海证券交易所债券指数

标准普尔500指数

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shareholder activism and resolution support services
Shareholder activism and resolution supportservices股东的积极性和决议的支持服务
  • As the “1% who stand with the 99%” age and become more active as shareholders, they are likely to become extremely successful
  • “1%的人掌握世界99%的财富,活跃的股东,可能会非常 成功
    • However, pushing shareholder resolutions requires delegate attendance at shareholder meetings and limited power of attorney actions
    • 然而,推动股东决议需要委托出席股东会议和有限力量的委托措施
    • Such actions are easy to outsource to service bureaus, if and only if such services are being offered
    • 这样的操作很容易外包给服务局,当且仅当可以提供这样的服务
    • Examples: fossil fuel divestment, CEO pay caps, strengthening social security, etc.
    • 例子:化石燃料撤资,CEO薪酬限制,加强社会保障等。

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questions
Questions?有问题吗?

jim@talknicer.com

Thank you!

talknicer.com/susjam