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Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football. ECE 539 Presented: 12/14/2010 Joseph Quigley. Objective. Train a multi-layer perceptron network to predict the regular season records of NFL Football teams. (Within a range.) Wins in a season: 0-3 4-8 9-12 13-16.

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Predicting nfl team performance a closer look at fantasy football

Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football

ECE 539

Presented: 12/14/2010

Joseph Quigley


Objective
Objective Football

  • Train a multi-layer perceptron network to predict the regular season records of NFL Football teams. (Within a range.)

    • Wins in a season:

      • 0-3

      • 4-8

      • 9-12

      • 13-16


Purpose
Purpose Football

  • Creates a simple way to turn projected fantasy football statistics into projected wins and losses.

  • To have the ability to create hypothetical teams and estimate how many games they would win in a season.

    • What if the 2008 Lions (winless) went back in time and traded defenses with the 2000 Ravens (one of the best defenses in recent history)?

    • What if the 2007 Patriots (only 16-0 team ever) traded defenses with the 2006 Redskins (one of the worst defenses in recent memory, and in the last 10 years of fantasy football)?


Predicting nfl team performance a closer look at fantasy football
Data Football

  • Fantasy Football statistics (2005-2010):

    • Quarterback

    • Running back

    • Wide Receiver

    • Tight End

    • Kicker

    • Defense/Special Teams

  • Team Vector


What if analysis
What-if Analysis Football

  • Can’t just add another teams fantasy defense/ST value.

    • Needed to modify offensive production based on turnovers.

    • Calculated number of offensive possessions in a season, then the fraction of fantasy points per possession.

    • Multiplied this by the difference in turnovers between the new and the old defense.


Preliminary what if results
Preliminary What-if results: Football

  • 2008 Lions/2000 Ravens – Win: 6.6-9.6 games

  • 2008 Lions/2000 Broncos – Win: 7.4-10.4 games

  • 2007 Patriots/2006 Redskins – Win: 6.4-9.6 games.



Questions
Questions? Football