Николай Демидов, Генеральный директор IMS Health Россия и СНГ - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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«Тревожные сигналы для российского фармрынка летом 2013 года: дальше хуже или дальше только лучше?»

Николай Демидов, Генеральный директор

IMS Health Россия и СНГ

Общий прогноз развития мирового рынка был снижен (сентябрь) из-за корректировки прогноза по развивающимся рынкам

Global Sales and Growth, updated Sept 2013

US$ sales

Bn.

Growth

$1.2 trillion

1.200

10%

9%

1.000

8%

7%

800

6%

600

5%

4%

400

3%

2%

200

1%

0

0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 (f)

2014 (f)

2015 (f)

2016 (f)

2017 (f)

Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, update September 2013, at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts.

Moscow, 10th of December 2013

Рост в Восточной Европе определяется прежде всего ростом РФ и СНГ

Forecasted Sales and Growth

Sales US$ bn

Growth

75

8%

7,3%

6,7%

6,2%

60

5,7%

6%

5,2%

45

4%

30

2%

15

0

0%

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Russia + CIS

Balkans

CEE

Growth

Adriatics

Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, Sep 2013, at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts.

Макроэкономика России: затяжное пике основных индексов вызывает растущую тревогу

110%

103%

Ключевые выводы

Замедление темпов роста осн. индексов должно негативно сказаться на социальной сфере
Произошло ли это в России в 1-3 кв. 2013?

Source: Rosstat

Macroeconomic indexes in Russia: an emergency break in the middle of 2013 provides concerns

Key assumption

Macroeconomic slow down had still low effect on key social (“consumer”) indexes
The effect could be expected in the 4th quarter for retail and in the beginning of 2014 for state funded segments

Source: Rosstat

Pharma market growth in Jan-Sept 2013

Retail sector continued to drive the market

Value

Volume

+7%

-4%

473,2

3,74

3,60

443,4

-3%

316,6

12%

283,7

SALES BY VOLUME, BLN PACKS

Retail

3,19

3,11

SALES BY VALUE, RUB BLN

Hospital

-11%

Reimbursement

-10%

83,1

92,7

-5%

0,47

73,5

0,42

10%

67,0

0,08

0,07

YTDQ3 2012

YTDQ3 2013

YTDQ3 2012

YTDQ3 2013

Source: IMS Health. TRD prices

The market slowdown was firstly perceived as a remission after a high growth due to the Flu epidemic

Flu epidemic

comments

2012

Flu epidemic was the market driver in Q1: +19% (USD)
The growth reduction slowed the market down in Q2 to the critical +10%
2013 Q3 shows unusual pattern of growth, compared to 2011 & 2012, with sales increase in July but flat sales in August (typical start of the season)

2013

2011

Growth

YvY 0!

Source: IMS Health.*-data atTRD prices

Структура роста: различия ЖНВЛП и не ЖНВЛП

Structural shift and price increaseof Non-EDL drive retail market

ЖНВЛП

Рост розничного рынка

Преимущественно Rx

10,7%

3,0%

The shift of consumption structure has significant impact on both EDL and Non EDL segments
Price increase comes from Non EDL segment only
Structure shift is the only driver in EDL for a long time

Price growth on non-EDL products has probably a limited potential as a tool for margin’s increase for market players due to competition

10%

0,8%

1,5%

0,1%

Price

Structure

Volume

New products*

Total Growth

Преимущественно OTC

не ЖНВЛП

7,1%

13%

1,4%

3,6%

7,9%

0,0%

Price

Structure

Volume

New products*

Total Growth

Source: IMS Health. Data at TRD prices, Drop-out products are excluded due to low figures

Long term forecast

Navigating different alternatives we are positive about attractiveness of the Russian market

CAGR Retail

+12.7%

Drug

insurance

CAGR %(2007-17)13.7%

Total Pharmaceutical market Sales

LC$B (ex-mnf), 2006-2017

Drivers

Price increases for products not included in the EDL will drive price growth in the retail market
Introduction of Drug insurance in a mid/long term range

New pricing system 2010

10%

Crisis2009

Regionalisation of DLO

18%

Constraints

Slow economy recovery
EDL pricing/ Restrictions on price registrations
An investigation into state procurement and changes to the state procurement rules could result in lower prices in the DLO and hospital sectors

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E