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«Тревожные сигналы для российского фармрынка летом 2013 года: дальше хуже или дальше только лучше?». Николай Демидов, Генеральный директор IMS Health Россия и СНГ. Общий прогноз развития мирового рынка был снижен (сентябрь) из-за корректировки прогноза по развивающимся рынкам.
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Николай Демидов, Генеральный директор
IMS Health Россия и СНГ
Global Sales and Growth, updated Sept 2013
US$ sales
Bn.
Growth
$1.2 trillion
1.200
10%
9%
1.000
8%
7%
800
6%
600
5%
4%
400
3%
2%
200
1%
0
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 (f)
2014 (f)
2015 (f)
2016 (f)
2017 (f)
Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, update September 2013, at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts.
Moscow, 10th of December 2013
Forecasted Sales and Growth
Sales US$ bn
Growth
75
8%
7,3%
6,7%
6,2%
6,2%
60
5,7%
6%
5,2%
45
4%
30
2%
15
0
0%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Russia + CIS
Balkans
CEE
Growth
Adriatics
Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, Sep 2013, at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts.
Moscow, 10th of December 2013
Макроэкономика России: затяжное пике основных индексов вызывает растущую тревогу
110%
103%
103%
Ключевые выводы
Source: Rosstat
Moscow, 10th of December 2013
Macroeconomic indexes in Russia: an emergency break in the middle of 2013 provides concerns
Key assumption
Source: Rosstat
Moscow, 10th of December 2013
Pharma market growth in Jan-Sept 2013
Retail sector continued to drive the market
Value
Volume
+7%
-4%
473,2
3,74
3,60
443,4
-3%
316,6
12%
283,7
SALES BY VOLUME, BLN PACKS
Retail
3,19
3,11
SALES BY VALUE, RUB BLN
Hospital
-11%
Reimbursement
-10%
83,1
92,7
-5%
0,47
73,5
0,42
10%
67,0
0,08
0,07
YTDQ3 2012
YTDQ3 2013
YTDQ3 2012
YTDQ3 2013
Source: IMS Health. TRD prices
Moscow, 10th of December 2013
The market slowdown was firstly perceived as a remission after a high growth due to the Flu epidemic
Flu epidemic
comments
2012
2013
2011
Growth
YvY 0!
Source: IMS Health.*-data atTRD prices
Moscow, 10th of December 2013
Структура роста: различия ЖНВЛП и не ЖНВЛП
Structural shift and price increaseof Non-EDL drive retail market
ЖНВЛП
Рост розничного рынка
Преимущественно Rx
10,7%
3,0%
10%
0,8%
1,5%
0,1%
Price
Structure
Volume
New products*
Total Growth
Преимущественно OTC
не ЖНВЛП
7,1%
13%
1,4%
3,6%
7,9%
0,0%
Price
Structure
Volume
New products*
Total Growth
Source: IMS Health. Data at TRD prices, Drop-out products are excluded due to low figures
Moscow, 10th of December 2013
Navigating different alternatives we are positive about attractiveness of the Russian market
CAGR Retail
+12.7%
Drug
insurance
CAGR %(2007-17)13.7%
Total Pharmaceutical market Sales
LC$B (ex-mnf), 2006-2017
Drivers
New pricing system 2010
10%
Crisis2009
Regionalisation of DLO
18%
Constraints
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
Source: IMS Health, Market Prognosis Sept 2013
Moscow, 10th of December 2013
