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Global Climate Change

Global Climate Change. What we know, what we are fairly confident about, and where the uncertainties lie. What do we know?. CO2, methane, CFC’s, water vapor trap heat (= “greenhouse gases”). Global average temperature has risen 0.3-0.6 C in the last 100 years.

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Global Climate Change

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  1. Global Climate Change What we know, what we are fairly confident about, and where the uncertainties lie.

  2. What do we know? • CO2, methane, CFC’s, water vapor trap heat (= “greenhouse gases”). • Global average temperature has risen 0.3-0.6 C in the last 100 years. • Global average sea levels rose 10-25 cm over the last 100 years. • The global climate system is very complex.

  3. What do we confidently conclude? • The rise in CO2 is the largely the result of human activity. • More CO2 will probably mean further rise in global average temperatures and sea levels. • Sulfate aerosols have been counteracting the warming trend.

  4. What do we not really know? • Regional changes are very hard to predict at present. Local conditions may change much more than the global average. • Whether regional weather patterns are becoming more extreme or variable.

  5. Major sources of uncertainty • Clouds: warming may mean more clouds, but these could cool or warm the planet. • Oceans: the fate of CO2 over the long term in the ocean is not known. • Interactive effects. Poorly known links in the climate system may lead to surprising changes.

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