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Emerging Technologies to Watch

Emerging Technologies to Watch

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Emerging Technologies to Watch

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  1. Emerging Technologiesto Watch • Ballistic Magnetoresistance (BMR)-based drives: 50+ DVDs on a hard drive the size of a credit card • Wireline: 10GB Ethernet (802.3ae) approved by IEEE in 2002 • Wireless • “3G” cell phones: 11.4 million by 2003; 66.4 million by 2005; 250 million+ by 2007 • TI expects single-chip cell phones by end of 2004 • WIFI continues to expand in corporate and community settings • Radio Frequency ID (RFID) – new “Auto ID” standards • Biometrics: face, fingerprints, hand geometry, handwriting, iris, retinal, vein and voice • Network Services Architecture-bases systems (UDDI, WSDL, XML, and more) • E-paper, Smart-paper, Flexible Displays

  2. Standing At the Crossroads • Variable-Price Vending Machines at Amusement Parks • Explosion in e-mail (2002: 31 billion/day, 2006: 60 billion/day) • By 2010, over 27 million e-workers in European Union (est. 3 million in 2000) • Online consumer sales ($1.5 billion/week in late August 2002) continuing to accelerate • Households paying e-Bills to reach 52 million by 2006 (up from 18 million in 2001) • Smart-Paper, wireless signs in department stores and elsewhere • Computerized, implanted, drug-delivery chips

  3. Words of Wisdom • Clinging to the Past and Present: • “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons” (Popular Mechanics, 1949) • “640K ought to be enough for anybody.” (Bill Gates, 1981) • Seeking the Future: • "At every crossroads on the path that leads to the future, tradition has placed 10,000 men to guard the past."   -- Count Maurice Maeterlink • Life is what's coming, not what was.

  4. Through the Looking Glass… WFS Technology Timeline • 2005: • Retinal implants linked to video cameras • 100 teraflop computers • All patients tagged (RFID) in hospitals • Voice synthesis quality up to human standards • 80% of U.S. homes have PCs

  5. Through the Looking Glass… WFS Technology Timeline • 2010: • 25% of TV celebrities are synthetic • All government services delivered electronically (2008) • Optical neurocomputers mimic brain functions • Electronic supercomputers as fast as human brain • First Net War fought between cybercommunities • Effective prediction of most natural disasters • Emotionally responsive toys & robots (2006)

  6. Through the Looking Glass… WFS Technology Timeline • 2015: • Satellite location devices implanted into pets • 3-D videoconferencing • Desktop computer as fast as human brain • ID cards replaced by biometric scanning • DNA computer

  7. Through the Looking Glass… WFS Technology Timeline • 2020: • Machine knowledge exceeds human knowledge (2017) • Electronic life forms given basic rights • Only 15% of deaths worldwide due to infectious diseases • Sensors widely used in countryside to monitor environment • Computers linked to biological sensory organs • Reservations required to use some key roads • Computer-enhanced dreaming

  8. Through the Looking Glass… WFS Technology Timeline • 2025: • Fully functioning artificial eyes • Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computers • Robots surpass developed-world population • VR becomes popular entertainment in nursing homes • Holographic TV