1 / 21

Sea A SIA CHARTERERS’ FORUM Singapore 2 April 2007

Sea A SIA CHARTERERS’ FORUM Singapore 2 April 2007. Peter M. Swift INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington. CHARTERERS’ FORUM. OIL SHIPPING Fleet development Chartering today Future demand ?. Tanker fleet development. m dwt. No. Assumptions for period until 2009:

mele
Download Presentation

Sea A SIA CHARTERERS’ FORUM Singapore 2 April 2007

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. SeaASIACHARTERERS’ FORUMSingapore2 April 2007 Peter M. Swift INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington

  2. CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Fleet development Chartering today Future demand ?

  3. Tanker fleet development m dwt No Assumptions for period until 2009: Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007 Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)

  4. Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt) 80 70 1993 and earlier sizes except 60 Handy VLCCs were defined differently Chem/Spec) 50 Panamaxes 40 Aframaxes 30 Suezmaxes VLCCs 20 10 0 1990 2006 2000 1998 2001 1988 1989 1991 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2002 2003 2004 1996 1993 2005

  5. Demolition: slowed in recent years(mdwt) 30 Others/NK Bangladesh 25 Pakistan India 20 Taiwan 15 Korea China 10 5 0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

  6. Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt) 16 14 12 10 8 6 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Years

  7. Double-hull percentage rising steadily 100 15 18 21 24 27 32 33 % dwt share* : 80 41 49 SH/DB/DS 78 60 94 DH 85 82 40 79 76 * Assumes 73 68 67 phase out 59 51 according to 20 regulations 22 (rounded 6 upwards, 25 0 years after 2010 1991 1997 End 06 End 10 End 03 End 04 End 05 End 07 End 08 End 09 End 02 . %

  8. (Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out- an “uncertainty” post 2010 70 MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH 60 until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 50 OPA90 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010. DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015

  9. Conversions to Double Hulla further “uncertainty”

  10. CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Chartering today

  11. Oil import by VLCCs - share of double hull % 100 90 80 70 Average 60 50 40 30 Europe US Atlantic 20 Far East Others 10 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source : Fearnleys

  12. Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

  13. Oil import by Aframaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

  14. Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

  15. Oil export by Aframaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

  16. Period contracts of one year and above No. *Projection 2007: 305 contracts Source: INTERTAKO

  17. CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Future demand ?

  18. India and China – growth markets

  19. Asia leads tanker demand rise

  20. CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Tonnage Supply & Demand Forecasts Average Annual Growth 2007-2009 Source: McQuilling Brokerage Partners

  21. THANK YOU For more information, please visit: www.intertanko.com www.shippingfacts.com www.maritimefoundation.com INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington

More Related