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Assessment and Communication of Chemical Risks. IGOR LINKOV ICF Consulting, Inc., U.S.A Ilinkov@icfconsulting.com. NATO 27 March 2002. Preparation (Several Years). Execution 1 Day. Diagnosed case 3 days. First Death. Multiple Deaths. Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack.

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Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Assessment and Communication of Chemical Risks

IGOR LINKOV

ICF Consulting, Inc., U.S.A

Ilinkov@icfconsulting.com

NATO

27 March 2002


Anatomy of a terrorist attack

Preparation(Several Years)

Execution 1 Day

Diagnosed case 3 days

First Death

Multiple

Deaths

Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack

Terrorist Activities

Parallel Response Activities

  • Threat Planning Identification

  • Threat Prevention

  • Early Detection of Event

  • Impact Mitigation


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

R&D Prior to Sep 11

Agent Monitoring Methods Validation

Chem/Bio Foam Decontaminant

2001

Chemical Demilitarization

Agent Neutralization System Design/Fabrication

Personal Monitor

1990s

Military Operations in Urban Terrain

Monitoring Labs

Design/Fabrication

Alternative Agent Destruction Tech Demo/Validation

1980s

M-55 Rocket Risk Analysis

Historical Focus on Event Detection/ Impact Mitigation

Demilitarization

1970s

Proprietary Information


Conclusion message
Conclusion/Message

  • Risk of terrorism is a public health issue

  • Threat planning identification and prevention could result in significant decrease in risks

  • Risk assessment can be used as a tool to prioritize and focus research

  • Spending restricted to specific issues may not be useful; projects must benefit public health in general

  • Risk communication and education are among most important areas


Overview
Overview

  • Lessons Learned from Chemical Risk Assessment

    • Acute risks (chemical plants, infrastructure risk)

    • Chronic risks (contaminated land)

    • Risk communication and stakeholder involvement

  • Terrorism: New Challenges

    • Threat planning identification

    • Threat reduction

    • Impact mitigation

    • Risk communication

  • Research Priorities

  • International Aspects


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Risk Assessment Formulation

What can happen

(go wrong)?

How likely is it?

Kaplan &

Garrick

1981

What are the

consequences?

Risk Assessment Formulation Works for Bio/Chem Terrorism


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Regulation

Contract

Applications of Risk Assessment:Types of Situations to Which Risk Assessment is Applied

Infrastructure

Interruption

Health &

Safety

Regulatory

Business/

Comemrcial

Environmental

Individualbehaviour


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Acute Risks

Hazard

Identification

Event

Probability

Assessment

Risk

Quantification

Consequence

Analysis

Toxicity

Assessment

Risk

Characterization

Hazard

Identification

Exposure

Assessment

Risk Assessment Process

Chronic Risks

National Research Council, 1983


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Toxic release

to Atmosphere

Toxic release

to Flare

PSV Lifts

x

Release

to Flare

V-1

Distribution of numbers of Incidents per Year

30%

LT

Gas or HC

breakthrough

25%

Operation upset

by high HC

y

20%

1-x

LT

Proportion of Losses

15%

Problem

PSV fails

10%

1-y

5%

Vessel

rupture

LCV-2

0%

LIC

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Number per Year

LAL LAH

LCV-1

LIC

LAL LAH

Risks/Hazard Control Options

Scenario

Analyses

Risk


Chronic persistent risks
Chronic Persistent Risks

  • US EPA Superfund Program

    • established in 1980 to locate, investigate, and clean up the worst contaminated sites in the USA

    • risk assessment is used to help in deciding how to clean up sites.

  • Community Advisory Group (CAG)

    • represents diverse community interests

    • provides a public forum for community members to present and discuss their needs and concerns related to the Superfund decision-making process

    • provides local information and assist in making better decisions on how to clean up a site

    • offers EPA a unique opportunity to hear—and seriously consider— community preferences for site cleanup and remediation.


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Funding Public Involvement

  • Technical Assistance Grant (TAG) program, intended to promote public involvement in decisions on site-specific cleanup strategies under Superfund.

  • An initial grant up to $50,000 is available for community at any Superfund site that is on the EPA's National Priorities List


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Example 1: Former Mining Site,Vermont

  • Significant Metal contaminants

  • Significant impacts to surface water quality

  • Important historical preservation issues

Community: Rural low income community

Initial reaction: Leave us alone!


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Example 2: Lake in Urban Area, Massachusetts

  • Low-level contamination from Army facilities

  • Marginal localized impacts to sediment quality

Community: Affluent, well educated

Initial reaction: You are going to pay for it!


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Communicating Chronic Risks

  • Approach to risk communication:

    • Monthly community meetings

    • Quarterly newsletters

    • Annual environmental open house

  • Results

    • Developed trust with community

    • Community acceptance of remedial actions at Site 1

    • Advanced risk assessment (including probabilistic assessment) at Site 2

  • Conclusion: Risk communication requires time and patience!

    • Risk education is very important

    • Involvement of technical experts and broad community representatives


Anatomy of a terrorist attack1

Preparation(Several Years)

Execution 1 Day

Diagnosed case 3 days

First Death

Multiple

Deaths

Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack

Terrorist Activities

Parallel Response Activities

  • Threat Planning Identification

  • Threat Prevention

  • Early Detection of Event

  • Impact Mitigation


Threat planning identification
Threat Planning Identification

  • Homeland Municipal Defense Network

    • pilot study to link existing environmental monitoring network (soil, air, water) with public health/medical networks in a single grid


Threat planning identification internet civil defense network
Threat Planning Identification:Internet Civil Defense Network

  • Concept developed by R. Laporte (University of Pittsburgh)

  • Trusted Internet networks of friends working together on the outlook for bioterrorism related precursors.

Estimated 50,000,000

participants

in the USA

+

+

+


Threat planning identification1
Threat Planning Identification

  • Research Need: Simulation of the System Design

    • What is the level of background noise?

    • What is the lowest detectable signal?

    • How to implement Geospatial analyses and time dynamics?

    • How to optimize network design to reduce false-positive detection rates?


Risk education e learning

Establish Learning Strategy and Manage Change

Develop

Strategy

Strategy

Manage Change

  • Benchmark current reality

  • Establish boundaries & scope

  • Define Ambition Driven Strategy

  • Communicate strategy

  • Develop implementation plan

  • Monitor and measure progress

Manage Content and Delivery

Sources

Technologies

Styles

Outcomes

Develop

Solutions

  • Standard

  • In-house

  • Customized

  • Outsourced

  • Web

  • Multimedia

  • Classroom

  • Hybrid/blend

  • Self-paced

  • Instructor-led

  • Flexible

  • Courses

  • Degrees

  • Certificates

Manage Individual and Organizational Performance

Learning Management System

Student Support

ImprovePerformance

  • Career mapping

  • Courses

  • Curriculum

  • Teaching resources

  • Performance programs

  • Learning portals

  • eLearning and study aids

  • Online tutors

  • Learning communities

  • Local language support

Risk Education: E-Learning

  • e-learning, innovative curricula

E-learning approach provides a framework for flexible customized bioterrorism education.


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Innovative and InteractivePedagogy

= user groups

= curriculum modules

= continuing education

exam/evaluation

Modes ofDissemination

FEMA

E-learning

Needs

Assessment

Guided learning

Trainer manual

Evaluation

Curriculum Development

Customized for different user Groups

Input fromstakeholder

agencies

Risk Education Example: Curriculum for Agricultural Bioterrorism


Threat prevention making it harder to implement
Threat Prevention(Making it Harder to Implement)

  • Increased training

    • helps First Responders to recognize and respond to possible chemical and biological agent attacks.

  • Tighter control of potential chemical and biological threat materials

    • both material precursors and active agents are being put in place to reduce availability to potential terrorists.

  • Change in U.S. medical infrastructure

    • monitoring, reporting and treatment is being expanded and tested to ensure readiness in preparation for possible future bioterrorism events.


Threat prevention examples
Threat Prevention: Examples

  • Food packaging

  • Thru-wall sensors

  • Unmanned Reconnaissance

  • Individual Protection (Clothing)


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Early Detection of Event

  • Detection Technologies originally developed for the U.S. military are being adapted to civilian applications

    • CBW Detection in the Washington D.C. subway system

    • Handheld chemical agent detectors are available to first responders

  • Near-time Biological Detection is rapidly advancing, but is focusing on “Detect to Treat” scenarios, not “Detect to Warn”, due to the delayed impact of the treats.

    • The first indication of anthrax in the U.S. Senate letters was the medical consequences.


Early detection of event
Early Detection of Event

  • Chemical Agent Detectors

  • Non-Reagent Based Viral Detection Technology

  • Rapid Detection of Bacteriological Agents

Artists Concept of a Portable

Virus Detection Device being

developed by ADL


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Impact mitigation

  • Technologies originally developed to contain Improvised Explosive Devices are being expanded to counter Chemical and Biological dispersion threats

  • Vaccines to counter potential biological threats are being fast-tracked to ensure a timely response capability

  • Several decontaminant products are under development to counter civilian chemical and biological warfare agent attacks

    • ADL CB decontaminant foam

    • Sandia decontaminant foam




Organizations capable of producing bio chem warfare agents
Organizations Capable of Producing Bio/Chem Warfare Agents Soviet Union

Research Objective: Database Creation?


Assessment and communication of chemical risks

Teacher in Pittsburgh Soviet Union

Teacher in Almati

Teacher in Kiev

Teacher in New York

Teacher in Novosibirsk

Teacher in Moscow

International Risk Education:Use of Internet


International risk education example supercourse
International Risk Education Example: Supercourse Soviet Union

  • SUPERCOURSE-collection of lectures on prevention, shared for free by the best faculty in the world. Developed by Dr. LaPorte and the Supercourse team (University of Pittsburgh)

    URL: www.pitt.edu/~super1

  • RUSSIAN SUPERCOURSE, collection of lectures in Russian, designed to target audience in Russia and other countries of former Soviet Union

  • Current Status

    • 620 lectures

    • 5000 faculty members from 120 countries

      SUPERCOURSE on Terrorism?


Conclusion message1
Conclusion/Message Soviet Union

  • Risk of terrorism is a public health issue

  • Threat planning identification and prevention could result in significant decrease in risks

  • Risk assessment can be used as a tool to prioritize and focus research

  • Spending restricted to specific issues may not be useful; projects must benefit public health in general

  • Risk communication and education are among most important areas