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Simulation of an Artificial Society with crime and punishment . José Roberto Iglesias, Instituto de Física e Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas, UFRGS, Porto Alegre, Brasil. econofis’10, são paulo, march 2010. Co-authors. Viktoriya Semeshenko (Buenos Aires) Jean-Pierre Nadal (Paris)

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simulation of an artificial society with crime and punishment

Simulation of an Artificial Society with crime and punishment

José Roberto Iglesias,

Instituto de Física e Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas, UFRGS, Porto Alegre, Brasil

econofis’10, são paulo, march 2010

slide2

Co-authors

  • Viktoriya Semeshenko (Buenos Aires)
  • Jean-Pierre Nadal (Paris)
  • Mirta B. Gordon (Grenoble)
  • Gordon, Iglesias, Nadal, Semeshenko, Crime and Punishment: the economic burden of impunity, European Physical Journal B 68, 133–144 (2009)
crime is as old as humankind
Crime is as old as humankind
  • “Passional (non-rational) crimes”:
    • Cain and Abel
    • Don José and Carmen
  • Economic crimes
    • Jacob and Esau
    • Ronald Biggs and the Great Train Robbery (8 august 1963)
    • Bernrad Madoff and “financial pyramids”(2009)
crime is as old as humankind4

“Passional (non-rational) crimes”:

    • Cain and Abel
    • Don José and Carmen
  • Economic crimes
    • Jacob and Esau
    • Ronald Biggs and the Great Train Robbery (8 august 1963)
    • Bernrad Madoff and “financial pyramids”(2009)
Crime is as old as humankind
multidisciplinary explanations and solutions for crime philosophy law sociology ethics economics
Multidisciplinary explanations and “solutions” for crime: philosophy, law, sociology, ethics, economics...
crime and punishment the economic burden of impunity
Crime and punishment: the economic burden of impunity

The main hypothesis of the model:

  • Crime, particularly economic crimes – stealing, robbery - has an economic mobile.
  • Each person is characterize by an “honesty” coefficient that, when high, has dissuasive effect of the decision of committing an offense.
  • This “honesty” label is a global characterization of education, risk-aversion, fear, moral standards, fear, etc…
  • The probability of punishment depends on the stolen amount.
  • Offenders are punished, if caught, with fines an prison, both proportional to the stolen amount.
  • The average honesty of the population changes as a function of the perception of the society of the level of control of criminality.
becker s utility
Becker’s Utility

We add the “honesty” factor as an additional constraint

initial configuration
Initial configuration
  • Each agent i is characterized by
    • a monthly wage
    • Wi [Wmin,Wmax]
    • triangular, [1,100]
    • a time-dependent honesty
    • index Hi [Hmin,Hmax]
    • triangular, [0,100]
when and how a crime is committed
When and how a crime is committed?
  • Criminal attempts
  • At each attempt
    • select potential criminal k and a victim v
    • success of the attempt depends on k’s honesty and the expected gain or booty* (cf. *G.Becker, P. Shikida)
    • If the crime is performed the offender gets S and the victim losses S

So that

  • Crime: k robs a victim a random amount
    • S ≤ Kv !
arrested offenders and punishment
Arrested offenders and punishment
  • Probability of punishment:
    • p0 – … of small offences
    • p1 – … of large offences
  • Offender kgoes to prison for months
  • Retribution: Offender k pays a fine f x S,
monthly results
Monthly results
  • Simulation setting:
    • N=1000, 240 months, Nc=5%
    • S=r*10*Wv, f=0.25S
    • Various p0, p1
crime and punishment results
Crime and punishment: results
  • averages over 240 months

Left: With prison after-effects Right: Without

hysteresis
Hysteresis

What happens if the probability of punishment changes in time?

slide21

Conclusions

  • There is a first order phase transition in the criminality as a function of the probability of punishment
  • This transition is accompanied by changes in the assets and inequality of he full society.
  • Honesty coefficient (education) is an essential ingredient, along with the economic motivation of crime
  • Punishment is not just fines and prison but also economic aftereffects. The after-effects of prison may increase criminality. If prison do not recover the offenders, crime is the only issue
ongoing and upcoming
Ongoing and upcoming…
  • Rehabilitation: effects of incarceration on honesty indexes and wages
  • Treatment of recidivism
  • Underlying networks (social and criminal)
  • Comparison with the empirical data
    • Data from Rio Grande do Sul: correlations between size of the city, average education and criminaliry.
    • Shikida interviewed inmates in Paraná: Economic crime is the rule. But criminality seems not to be correlated with poverty
    • It is difficult to obtain the fraction of punished crimes to evaluate p0 and p1
slide23

Muito obrigado por vossa atenção

«The degree of civilization in a society can be judged by opening the doors of its prisons»

(F. M. Dostoievski: House of the Death)

www.if.ufrgs.br/~iglesias