ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN
Download
1 / 23

ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 382 Views
  • Updated On :

ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY. Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious Dimensions Session I : Differential Fertility I (LSD: Room S50 ) September 29, 2006.

Related searches for ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY' - medwin


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Slide1 l.jpg

ETHNIC DIFFERENCES INFERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY

Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious Dimensions

Session I : Differential Fertility I(LSD: Room S50 )September 29, 2006

Sutay Yavuz Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock/Germany (PhD Candidate)[email protected]


Slide2 l.jpg

ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY

1. Introduction: Fertility Transition

2. Brief information on Ethnic Composition

3. Differential Fertility Behavior of Ethnic Groups:

Period Fertility Measures and Childbearing Behavior

4.The threshold in Fertility Transition: Determinants of the Third Births by Ethnicity

5. Conclusion


Slide3 l.jpg

The natural fertility: the reproductive behavior characterized by the absence of deliberate birth control.

The modern family limitation: fertility behavior turns into a matter of the calculus choice.

Modern Fertility

Behavior

Natural Fertility

MODERNIZATION (?)

Mortality decline

Socio-economic development

Innovation & Diffusion

Institutional change

Late Stage:

Modern contraceptive methods

Postponement and limiting of births

Early Stage:

Increasing age at marriage

Celibacy

Traditional contraceptive methods: Withdrawal

Introduction: Fertility Transition

Fertility Transition: natural fertility behavior shifts to modern family limitation (parity-specific birth limitation )


Slide4 l.jpg

2.1

Fertility Transition in Turkey - I

Total Fertility Rate:The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman (or group of women) during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year.

Replacement level fertility:2.1 children per woman's life time. 2 children to replace the parents, with one-tenth of a child extra to make up for the mortality of children


Slide5 l.jpg

Brief information on Ethnic Composition: Percent Distribution

Percentage Distribution of Ethnic Groups in Turkey

1 1935 Population Census2 Mutlu, 1995(1965 Population Census)

3 Mutlu, 1995 (projection)4 Özsoy, Koç and Toros 1992 (projection)5 (Koç et al.1999)TDHS-1993 (ever-married women)

6 (Koç et al.2000) TDHS-1998 (never- married and ever-married women)

7 (own estimation) TDHS-1993 (ever-married women)

* Other ethnic groups: Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jew etc.


Slide6 l.jpg

Absolute Numbers (in thousand)

http://www.tuik.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do

1Other ethnic groups: Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jew etc.


Slide7 l.jpg

Inter-marriage among ethnic groups in Turkey

Source: TDHS-2003 (own estimation)

1 Other ethnic groups: Arabs, Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jews etc.


Slide8 l.jpg

Differential Fertility Behavior of Ethnic Groups: Age Specific Fertility Rates

Age Specific Fertility Rate (2000-2003) By Mother Tongue (Turkey TFR is 2.2)

Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): The number of live births to women in a specified age group and period per 1,000 women in the same age group.


Slide9 l.jpg

Fertility Differentials : Welfare Status and Ethnicity Specific Fertility Rates

Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman


Slide10 l.jpg

Fertility Differentials: Education Level and Ethnicity Specific Fertility Rates

Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman


Slide11 l.jpg

General Pattern of Childbearing Patterns by Ethnicity Specific Fertility Rates

Cumulative proportion of ever-married women who progress to next parity within five years of the previous birth, by the mother tongue of women.

M* refers to marriage (parity 0). Source: TDHS-2003 data file (own estimation)


Slide12 l.jpg

Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth Specific Fertility Rates

The progression from second to third birth is as a critical component of the fertility transition. The third births were seen as a marker of a strong two-child family norm in modern societies

As two-child family norm is becoming more and more widespread, the third child mothers are forming a special group with different motivations and fertility ideals.

We use event-history approach for examining the determinants of the third births; (piecewise constant) proportional-hazard (or intensity-regression) models .

Data is originated from 2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey

How progression risks (intensities) are dependent on different combinations of characteristics of the women?


Slide13 l.jpg

Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth Specific Fertility Rates

A relative risk of 1 for the level of a covariate indicates that the estimated third birth risk is the same as that of the reference group of the same covariate.

A relative risk estimated to be greater (smaller) than 1 indicates a higher (lower) third birth risk than for the reference category.

A woman’s third birth risk is defined as the probability that she will

experience a third birth the next month, given her individual characteristics and given that she has not had such a birth by the beginning of the month.


Slide14 l.jpg

Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth Specific Fertility Rates

The progression to a third birth, as with any other type of life-course transition, does not occur at random or in isolation, but in relation to certain to structures in society.

Thus we cover certain areas of life that assumed to be related fertility behavior of women:

1. Childhood Socialization

2. Socio-economic Characteristics

3. First Marriage Specific Cultural Characteristics

4. Past Fertility Experience

5. Husband Charactersitics

6. Context Variables


Slide15 l.jpg

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants Specific Fertility Rates

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

CHILDHOOD SOCIALIZATION

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1


Slide16 l.jpg

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants Specific Fertility Rates

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS

1 For Turkish Speaker women the levels are: Not worked/Worked without social security

Worked with social security

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1


Slide17 l.jpg

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants Specific Fertility Rates

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

FIRST MARRIAGE SPECIFIC CULTURAL CHARACTERISTICS

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1


Slide18 l.jpg

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants Specific Fertility Rates

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

PAST FERTILITY EXPERIENCE

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1


Slide19 l.jpg

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants Specific Fertility Rates

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

HUSBAND CHARACTERISTICS

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1


Slide20 l.jpg

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants Specific Fertility Rates

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

CONTEXT VARIABLES

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1


Slide21 l.jpg

Interaction: Period and Mother Tongue Specific Fertility Rates


Slide22 l.jpg

Conclusion Specific Fertility Rates

The fertility behavior turns out to be parity specific limitation behavior for Turkish speaker women after parity one and more significantly, after the parity two.The educated Turkish women may be now ‘pioneer’ of the lowest-low fertility behavior.

In contrast, the Kurdish speaker women who do not speak Turkish, could not read and who did not work, married traditionally compose ‘laggard’ group in fertility transition process of Turkey.

The results can be seen as supportive of the argument that the segments of the population that have been more integrated into social, economic and political modernization and urbanization trends are changing their fertility behavior more rapidly.

The socio-economic determinants of important however effect is modified by mother tongue (ethnicity) and cultural characteristics (dimensions of the patriarchy)

The fertility dynamics of Kurdish parents is an important factor in determining when and how the demographic transition in Turkey will be completed


Slide23 l.jpg

Thank you very much Specific Fertility Rates

Sutay Yavuz (PhD Candidate) [email protected]

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock

www.demogr.mpg.de


ad