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Future International Environmental Security Issues and Potential Military Requirements over the period of 2010 to 2025 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Future International Environmental Security Issues and Potential Military Requirements over the period of 2010 to 2025. - for the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute -. Environmental Security. defined as environmental viability for life support with three sub-elements:.

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Future International Environmental Security Issues and Potential Military Requirements over the period of 2010 to 2025

- for the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute -


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Environmental Security

defined as environmental viability for life support with three sub-elements:

  • preventing or repairing military damage to the environment;

  • preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts; and

  • protecting the environment due to the moral value of the environment itself


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Purpose of the study

  • identify and discuss environmental issues that may affect the U.S. Army's Transformation efforts in the mid-term (2005-2010) and the long-term (2020-2025) time frames

  • anticipate potential military requirements that could emerge in response to these issues.


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Study Process

- Meeting with Military Attachés to Washington, D.C. to introduce the study

- A three-round Delphi:

  • Questionnaire - round 1: likelihood and importance of emerging environmental issues and when they might affect military policy or procedures due to security concerns, or statutory, regulatory, or treaty requirements

  • Three-day workshop with futurists, environmentalists, and scientists (day 1); military attachés (day 2); U.S. military personnel (day 3)

  • Questionnaire - round 3: Eight environmental security developments and potential military requirements to address them



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Environmental security developments - distillation used in Rd3 questionnaire -

1. Biotechnology is used to build new kinds of weapons.

2. A major military conflict over water is understood by world leaders as extremely plausible.

3. A new and/or reemerging disease threat or outbreak triggers conflict.

4. Increasing emphasis on the sustainable use of natural resources causes a complete revision of military operations including construction, base operations, and training management policies.

5. The aftereffects of biological, chemical, or nanotech weapons or a nuclear incident require a massive cleanup or other large-scale military response.

6. A post-conflict battlefield remediation treaty is implemented.

7. Military forces are given a new role in environmental conflict prevention and/or resolution.

8. Future conflicts will be driven by rogue states and terrorists, changing the nature of environmental challenges facing military forces. A rogue nation develops doctrine to target environmental quality as an objective of warfare.


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Four themeswere apparent in the list of requirements:

  • Need for collaboration with other agencies;

  • Need for training;

  • Need to develop new technology;

  • Possible emergence of new environmental-related missions.


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Highlights

  • the only development that was rated very high for both importance and likelihood was:

    A major military conflict breaks out over water resources/quality.

  • The developments with the highestdisagreement regarding the year it might occur were:

  • New sources and management of energy alter global political power relations.

  • A global push for environmental friendly non-lethal weapons emerges.

  • Artificial genetic pollution is recognized as a global environmental safety or occupational health threat


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Highlights (cont.)

  • disagreement about the degree of military responsibility vs. civilian responsibility for environmental security

  • strong sentiment that the role of the military is distinct from environmental issues

  • agreement that a military doctrine for the prevention of military attacks on the environment needs to be developed by the UN

  • national sovereignty issues must be faced and resolved

  • under what conditions could environmental damage be so severe to be of concern to all of humanity and intervention authorized by the UN Security Council?

  • high correlation between the implementation dates and the perceived effectiveness of the requirements


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Highlights (cont.)

  • divergent opinions of civilian vs. military over control of water systems to prevent a crisis or protect them during a crisis

  • creating effective “off-switches” for bio-weapons and nano-weapons will be an on-going intellectual arms race

  • protection against bio-weapons: preventing the motivation of their use through general education to enlighten the public, and the mitigation of hostilities among nations, societies, and social groups


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Meta recommendations

  • Perform a gap analysis

  • Expand simulation in training

  • Prevent environmentally related conflicts

  • Non-environmental impacting weapons

  • Improve the R&D cooperation

  • Increase consideration given to international existing and upcoming treaties