Identity Management in a National Preparedness Framework: Validation and Beyond

1. Identity Management in a National Preparedness Framework: Validation and Beyond Duane C. Caneva, MD DCaneva@who.eop.gov

2. Disclaimer • The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter, and not to be construed as the view or position of any part of the US Government. • Terminology used is not necessarily standard (or guaranteed semantically correct)

3. Impetus for Design and Development: Networked Architecture Are we “ready”? …What is “Readiness”? Are we “prepared”? …What is “Preparedness”? What are our current resources? How do we manage risk? What can we sustain? How does current status impact other plans, programs, or missions? What is our visibility of resources against any given set of dynamic requirements? What is the best use of our resources? What is, or would be, the impact of a mission on readiness, preparedness, operations, other missions, budget constraints? Answers needed in real time, all the time, to all nodes in chain of command with need to know

4. Ontology Primer(Wikipedia.com) • Individuals: instances of objects (the basic or “ground level” objects) • Classes: sets, collections, concepts, or types of objects • Attributes: properties, features, characteristics, or parameters that objects (and classes) can have • Relations: ways that classes and objects can be related to one another • Function terms: complex structures formed from certain relations that can be used in place of an individual term in a statement • Restrictions: formally stated descriptions of what must be true in order for some assertion to be accepted as input • Rules: statements in the form of an if-then sentence that describe the logical inferences that can be drawn from an assertion in a particular form • Axioms: assertions (including rules) in a logical form that together comprise the overall theory that the ontology describes in its domain of application • Events: the changing of attributes or relations

5. Theory of Ontologic Relativity Einstein: E=m*c2 • All Factors affecting people have relevant relativity and relative relevance. • The success of collaboration within a system design is proportional to the sense of centeredness of each participant in that system: I=(m*e)3

6. Current Events Demographics of events Type of Incident Location, time Size, Scope, and Scale Intensity Incident Management System (NIMS) Phases ICS/Unified Command System Levels of government response Functional Elements of Response National Response Plan Emergency Support Functions Department and Agency Roles Readiness/ Preparedness Critical Infrastructures (17) Federal Departments Planning (Capabilities, Resource, Scenario, & Threat-based planning) Time People Programs of Record (AT, FP, CIP, IVA, CBRNE IPP/ IPP, NBC DP, EMP…) Standards (of care, of programs) Strategies (National Security/ Defense/ Military; Combating WMD/ Terrorism) Statutes/ Law, Legal issues Training (baseline, equipment, squad,… ) Chains of Command (Ad, Op, Tac) Assessments Risk; Threat; Hazard Vulnerability; Exercise Risk (assess., ORM, communication) CIP: 13 Critical Infrastructure Sectors 4 Key Resources Professional Disciplines Research, Development, Test, and Eval. Tiering Urbanization: Urban to rural to wilderness Mores, values Random and Higher order effects Chaos Theory Inter-, Trans-, Sub-national/ National Government Jurisdictions (Fed, state, local, tribal) Private Sector/ Non-Gov Orgs/ Faith Based Orgs Information management Political Economic Social Technological Religious Military Historical Weather Geographical Media: Print/TV/Radio/Blogosphere News Reporting Prophecy, Luck, karma, Murphy’s Law DOTLMPF The Framework: Dimensions, Layers, Spectra, & Quanta

7. Ontology Groupings—Dimensions, Layers, Spectra, and Quantaaka, Classes, Sets, Collections, Concepts, or Types of Objects System of Systems, modular, to capture complexity Relationships: Applying dimensions as “lenses” and “filters” in a matrix format to study connectedness Links: Programmed, organizational connections between Nodes (e.g., “Chain of Command”) Tethers: Connections formed informally or naturally based on necessity, shared interests, goals, convenience, chance, personal relationships, nefarious reasons, or other Depend on the perception of that individual node Lenses: Analysis of connectedness based on that particular quality Filters: Analysis of connectedness with that particular quality excluded

8. Basis for Development: Operationalize aNational Preparedness Framework (NPF) Apply Taxonomy and Ontology to NPF Analyze Connectedness Understand Dimensions, Layers, Spectra, and Quanta Which Dimensions really matter? Identify and understand “nodes” or “items” in the matrix Understand how items are connected—rules, roles, and roll-ups Analyze Incident, Action, and Reaction Effects Apply Dimensions appropriately as “Filters” and “Lenses” Action/ reaction/ interaction between and through nodes Cascading, higher order effects Responses to actions Develop Processes for Prepare, Respond, Recover Identify Resources Valid Readiness, Preparedness Metrics Ensure Operational Visibility Best Fit Selection of “resources” Manage Operational Risk Semantic Web provides a common framework that allows data to be shared and reused across application, enterprise, and community boundaries Work in the Semantic Web Environment

9. Proper Development of a National Preparedness Framework • Taxonomy: Define a rich set of syntactic and semantic rules for specifying concepts that are members, items, or elements of one dimension, and relationships among them • Develop sub class of XML for data brokering, communications, and integration • Ontologies: System of Systems Engineering Architecture • Capabilities-based • Deconstruct the resource capabilities to points of irreducible complexity • Measure, collect, analyze outcomes • Evidence-based Outcome Target Metrics • Roll up capabilities to National Preparedness metrics • Roles of Chaos, Control, Network, Game,… Theories Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than the exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise. John Tukey

10. Framework Goal: Critical Nodes as Homeland Security Operational Platforms Systematic, matrixed approach Applying lenses and filters Appropriate Management of Standardization Standard Program Approach: “C MORE TEAMS” Metrics for “Readiness” and “Preparedness” Critical Nodes are “COOP’ed” HLS Response Resources Always Visible and “Ready” Near real time, verifiable data Identify common, minimum standards, methodologies Operational Risk Management Programmed analysis of the system MTF= Military medical treatment facility

11. Model for Emergency Management All models are bad. Some are useful. Allow Assimilation across various dimensions Functional elements (e.g, Admin, Ops, Log, Finance) Hierarchical Command Chains Disciplines Jurisdictions Critical Infrastructure/ Industrial Sectors Government/ Private Sector Regions Geography Phases of Management Rigorous to be useful in various planning constructs Capabilities-based Planning Requirements-based Planning Scenario-based Planning Threat-based Planning Flexible to be useful in Response Provides “Readiness” and “Preparedness” data Real time, reflective of current events, threats, lessons learned Provides Operational Risk Management capability Analyze data for real-time predictive modeling Analysis of Outcome Metrics provides evidence for improving the model, system System learns and evolves, tracks, and alerts Probabilities, trends,

12. Coming to Terms Readiness Factor: Statistical representation of a unit’s readiness to respond to a particular incident mission type Same unit may have different RF for a different incident type depending on equipment and training requirements Incident Types act as a filter for Readiness Factor Resource Utility Factor: Statistical representation of a unit’s likelihood of success for a given mission Includes risk management considerations Includes impact on donating agency or region Preparedness Factor: Statistical representation of the state of preparedness for a particular node or organization for a particular dimensional quality (e.g., incident type, region, geographical type)

13. Systems of Systems Architecture: Develop a “Taxonomy” for Homeland Security/ Emergency Management, and Disaster Response Org 1 Provide Policy Chemical Triage Decon EMP Capability Biological Org 2 Save life Mission Decon AT/FP Manning Radiological Do Now Scope Detection Org 3 Organization CIP Nuclear Do This Purpose Security Decon Recognition Org 4 MAPs Explosive Do Safely ConOps Litter Bearer Decon Equipment Extreme Weather Daily Ops Plan Annex Provide Rad Survey Training Seismic Rad Remed Exercise References Save life Direct Attack Entry/Exit Contr Assessment Epi Team Maintenance Vacc Team Sustainment PHEO Pharm Emerg Trauma Team Aux Sec Force Point of irreducible complexity “Adaptive Force Packages” Component “Capabilities” Components Sub-Comp. Organization Program Data… “Preparedness Factor” “Readiness Factor” • Org Filters: • Services • Department • Programs • Tier • Location • ESF’s/ Incident Types • Org “Readiness” for Incident Type • Org “Preparedness” Overall • (Resource) Capability “Readiness” • Resource Utility for Incident Response • Data points • “Wt Factors” • -Attributes • -Objectives • -Capabilities • -Components

14. Components and Sub-components Capability Organization Recognition Equipment Manning C M O R E Maintenance Sustainment Assessments Exercises Training T E A M S References Scope Mission ConOps TCL link Universal Task List Command Chain Comms Protocol Comms Plan Family of Systems Equipment On Hand Storage Location JCAHO Service specific ATFP training time (RVUs) Equipment Personnel Training/ RVUs Depot level Maint User levels Maint SLEP Teamworking Reputation Interoperability TTPs Critical Actions List Essential Task List Job Action Sheets MAAs/ MOUs Squad Roster Leader Assistant Equipment Mgr Training Mgr Supply Mgr Competencies OSHA/NFPA Quals RVU’s Baseline Tr Advanced Tr Sustainment Tr Expert Tr Equipment Tr Squad Tr Zone Tr Func Trng Exersise AAR HVA Observations LessonLearn JCAHO JSIVA Service IVA CQI Life-cycle mgmt SLEP POM Funding RVU Equipment/ Supplies/ Training Exercises Notional costs AAR = After Action Report ATFP = Antiterrorism/ Force Protection CQI = Continuous Quality Improvement HVA = Hazard Vulnerability Assessment JSIVA = Joint Staff Installation Vulnerability Assessment LL = Lessons Learned MAA = Mutual Aid Agreements MOU = Memorandum of Understanding POM = Program Objective Memorandum RVU = Relative Value Unites TCL = Target Capabilities List TTP = Tactics, Techniques, Procedures

15. Weighting Factors (Wx) Wx= f(Sig) x f(Rel) x f(Tar) x f(Dcy) x f(N) x Flags • Functions are applied at various layers in the system of systems approach

16. Weighting Factor Components, (Wx) • Relative Relevance Functions f(Rel): Comparison of items within their grouping (e.g. C MORE TEAMS, incident types) • Significance Functions f(Sig): Probability of item as a “Critical Point of Mission Failure” • Performance Based Metrics • Target Function f(Tar): Comparison of performance Output Metrics vs. standards—evidence based • Time Decay Function f(Dcy): Recognizes decay of skills, relevance, or continuity over time • Normalizing Functions f(N): 100 Point Scales • Flags: Binary 0/1 factor. Lack of item (pers/ equip) prevents mission

17. Significance Functions, f(Sig) • “Irreplaceable”--High cost or prolonged time to replace item • Probability of particular item becoming a “critical point of mission failure” • Ability or difficulty to work around item failure • High incidence of contribution to mission failure seen in exercises, training • Importance in current (regional, jurisdictional) threat or vulnerability analyses • Determined by outcome metric analysis, lessons learned, after action reports

18. Relative Relevance Functions, f(Rel) C MORE T E AMS • Comparison of relative significance of items within a systems architecture grouping • Eventually, might be particular to a layer of command, community, function, jurisdiction, geographic region, etc. • Viewed through lenses and filters • Determined by outcome metric analysis, lessons learned, after action reports

19. Target Functions and Outcome Metric Targets Corresponding Decay Curves for Target Outcomes Fully Mission Ready Time Weighting Factor Critical Level for Minimal Functionality Target Performance (e.g., # Personnel Ready) Time (e.g., 6 mos. Training Cycle)

20. Framework must be Dynamic, Multi-dimensional, Pragmatic Views Across the Framework Current status Hazards/ Vulnerabilities Risk Interdependencies Strengths Trends 90 92 94 95 90 Benchmark Thresholds 87 85 80 Time

21. Capability Sets Classification FrameworkBaseline Mass Casualty Capabilities Type Capabilities Program* Group Class Cardiac Arrest Triage Baseline Baby Abduction Litter Bearer Security EmergencyManagement Fire Hazard Specific Immediate Care Bomb Threat Minimal Care Hazmat Spill Patient Transport Core Violence/Security Morgue Force Protection Patient Admin Mass Casualty Delayed Care Severe Weather Manpower Pool Anti-terrorism Departments PAO Contingent Staff Functions Pastoral Care Functional CISR C4ISR Reactionary Surge Emerg Power HICS * Program= Programs, Plans, Operations, or Emergency Support Functions Public Works CISR= Critical Incident Stress Response HICS= Hospital Incident Command System Severe weather includes tornado, blizzard Comms

22. Capability Sets Classification FrameworkCBRNE Core Group Capability Sets Type Capabilities Program Group Class Chemical Triage Decon Baseline Biological Decon Radiological Detection EmergencyManagement Hazard Specific Nuclear Security Decon Explosive Litter Bearer Decon Extreme Weather Rad Survey Seismic Core Rad Remed Force Protection Direct Attack Entry/Exit Contr Epi Team MasCal Surge Vacc Team Anti-terrorism Evacuation PHEO Restr. of Mvmnt Contingent Pharm Emerg Functional Mass Care Mass Casualty Mass Fatality Reactionary Security Public Works HazMat EPI= Epidemiological Investigation Team PHEO= Public Health Emergency Officer Extreme weather includes hurricane, flooding, tornado Seismic includes earthquake, tsunami, mudslide, volcano as subtypes Stress Mgmt Trauma Team Physical Security Aux Sec Force

23. Chemical Incident Type Activation Triage Decon Triage Decon Baseline Capabilities Core Capabilities Incident Types Litter Bearer Detection Chemical Security Security decon Biological Immediate Care Litter Bearer decon Radiological Minimal Care Rad Survey Nuclear Patient Transprt Rad Remed Explosive Morgue Entry/Exit Contr Extreme Weather Patient Admin Epi Team Seismic Delayed Care Vacc Team Direct Attack Manpower Pool PHEO Surge PAO Pharm Emerg Evacuation Pastoral Care Trauma Team Restr. of Mvmnt CISR Baseline Types Aux Sec Force Mass Care Surge Response Cardiac Arrest Mass Fatality HICS Baby Abduction Stress Mgmt Comms Fire Physical Security Hazmat Team Bomb Threat Departments Security Team Hazmat Spill Staff Functions F & ES Violence/Security C4ISR Mass Casualty Power Failure Severe Weather Public Works

24. Biological Incident Activation Triage Decon Triage Chemical Decon Baseline Capabilities Core Capabilities Incident Types Litter Bearer Biological Detection Security Radiological Security decon Immediate Care Nuclear Litter Bearer decon Minimal Care Explosive Rad Survey Patient Transprt Extreme Weather Rad Remed Morgue Seismic Entry/Exit Contr Patient Admin Direct Attack Epi Team Delayed Care Surge Vacc Team Manpower Pool Evacuation PHEO PAO Restr. of Mvmnt Pharm Emerg Pastoral Care Mass Care Trauma Team CISR Baseline Types Mass Fatality Aux Sec Force Surge Response Stress Mgmt Cardiac Arrest HICS Physical Security Baby Abduction Comms Departments Fire Hazmat Team Staff Functions Bomb Threat Security Team C4ISR Hazmat Spill F & ES Violence/Security Mass Casualty Power Failure Severe Weather Public Works

25. Radiological Incident Activation Triage Decon Triage Chemical Decon Baseline Capabilities Core Capabilities Incident Types Litter Bearer Biological Detection Security Radiological Security decon Immediate Care Nuclear Litter Bearer decon Minimal Care Explosive Rad Survey Patient Transprt Extreme Weather Rad Remed Morgue Seismic Entry/Exit Contr Patient Admin Direct Attack Epi Team Delayed Care Surge Vacc Team Manpower Pool Evacuation PHEO PAO Restr. of Mvmnt Pharm Emerg Pastoral Care Mass Care Trauma Team CISR Baseline Types Mass Fatality Aux Sec Force Surge Response Stress Mgmt Cardiac Arrest HICS Physical Security Baby Abduction Comms Departments Fire Hazmat Team Staff Functions Bomb Threat Security Team C4ISR Hazmat Spill F & ES Violence/Security Mass Casualty Power Failure Severe Weather Public Works

26. Nuclear Incident Activation Triage Decon Triage Chemical Decon Baseline Capabilities Core Capabilities Incident Types Litter Bearer Biological Detection Security Radiological Security decon Immediate Care Nuclear Litter Bearer decon Minimal Care Explosive Rad Survey Patient Transprt Extreme Weather Rad Remed Morgue Seismic Entry/Exit Contr Patient Admin Direct Attack Epi Team Delayed Care Surge Vacc Team Manpower Pool Evacuation PHEO PAO Restr. of Mvmnt Pharm Emerg Pastoral Care Mass Care Trauma Team CISR Baseline Types Mass Fatality Aux Sec Force Surge Response Stress Mgmt Cardiac Arrest HICS Physical Security Baby Abduction Comms Departments Fire Hazmat Team Staff Functions Bomb Threat Security Team C4ISR Hazmat Spill F & ES Power Failure Violence/Security Mass Casualty Power Failure Severe Weather Public Works

27. High Yield Explosives Incident Activation Triage Decon Triage Chemical Decon Baseline Capabilities Core Capabilities Incident Types Litter Bearer Biological Detection Security Radiological Security decon Immediate Care Nuclear Litter Bearer decon Minimal Care Explosive Rad Survey Patient Transprt Extreme Weather Rad Remed Morgue Seismic Entry/Exit Contr Patient Admin Direct Attack Epi Team Delayed Care Surge Vacc Team Manpower Pool Evacuation PHEO PAO Restr. of Mvmnt Pharm Emerg Pastoral Care Mass Care Trauma Team SPRINT Baseline Types Mass Fatality Aux Sec Force Surge Response Stress Mgmt Cardiac Arrest HICS Physical Security Baby Abduction Comms Departments Fire Hazmat Team Staff Functions Bomb Threat Security Team C4ISR Hazmat Spill F & ES Violence/Security Mass Casualty Power Failure Severe Weather Public Works

28. Capability Sets Classification FrameworkContingent Group Capabilities Type Capabilities Program Group Class Earthquake Baseline Tsunami NEO EmergencyManagement Hazard Specific Flooding Core Force Protection Anti-terrorism Contingent Patient Reception Area Functional Reactionary NEO= Noncombatant Evacuation Operation

29. Resource Utilization andDecision Support Optimize best mix of resources against tyranny of time & distance, requirements gap (and cost) Selects best team(s) most likely to arrive soonest and ready to execute mission while minimizing impact to donating institution Application of the Resources should not incur more liability than would failure to use the resource (NFPA 1600) Based on Readiness (RF), Responsiveness (RsF), Deployability (DF), and Resource Provider Impact (RPIF) Factors Resource UtilityFunction = (RF) x (RsF) x (DF) RPIF x Cost RF = Readiness Factor RsF= Responsiveness Factor DF = Deployability Factor RDIF = Resource Provider Impact Factor

30. Readiness Factor Readiness achieved by meeting Program Objectives/ Attributes for a given capability Each Program Attribute is weighted Allows for refinement of tool through measures of effectiveness, assessment process Attributes allow partial crediting of program standards (C MORE TEAMS) Weighting factors determined by consensus initially, then on evidence Analysis to optimize Implemented system wide Resource Readiness Factor*, (RF) = ∑ PS x WtF PS = Program Standards achieved score WtF= Weight Factor associated with significance of program standard Readiness Factor 90 92 94 95 90 Benchmark Thresholds 87 85 80 Time ∑ Weighting Factor Program Standards Weighting Factor Points Score Benchmarks 0.1 0.05 Capability- 100 0.1 Capability Readiness Factor 10.0 5 0.1 0.15 Manning- 91 0.1 Manning 13.65 9.1 0.05 0.1 Organization- 100 0.1 Organization 5 10.0 0.1 0.05 Recognition- 100 0.1 Recognition 10.0 5 0.1 0.2 0.1 Equipment- 82 Equipment • Benchmark thresholds adjusted for program management goals • MIssions • Achievable thresholds • Program Standards stabilize • Training • Family of Systems • Mission requirements • Funding 8.2 16.4 0.1 0.2 Training- 76 0.1 Training 15.2 7.6 0.1 0.1 Exercise- 89 0.1 Exercise 8.9 8.9 0.1 0.1 Assessments- 74 0.1 Assessments 7.4 7.4 * Actual computation uses Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis and a probabilistic model. 86.45 86.45 0.05 0.1 0.1 4.95 9.9 Maintenance- 99 Maintenance 91.0 0.1 0.05 Sustainment- 99 0.1 Sustainment 9.9 4.95

31. Responsiveness Factor Responsiveness Factor, RsF = 1 . [Tmuster + Tload + TAPOE + Tat + Ttravel + Tdebark +Tobj + Tsetup] Tmuster= Time to recall members, ready equipment Tload= Time to load equipment onto road vehicle for local movement T APOE = Time to travel to a port of embarkation (e.g. airport or seaport) T at = Time awaiting transportation Ttravel = Travel time including considerations (e.g., weather, traffic flow, detours, Hazmat requirements) Tdebark = Time to debark at port of debarkation Tobj = Time traveling to objective site Tsetup = Time to setup and be ready to perform capability on site

32. Deployability Factor:How easy is it to deploy a resource? Ruggedness of equipment x Condition of Personnel (Weight, Cube, Log Support requirements, Hazmat Material restrictions*) Example scale for Equipment Ruggedness: [1-3] 1: Critical equipment fails drop test, temperature range limited to room temperatures 2: Critical equipment likely to survive drop test, water resistant, temperature range 32F – 120F 3: Critical equipment ruggedized, water proof, -30F – 160F Example scale for Condition of Personnel: [0.00 -1.00] Example scale for Hazmat Restrictions*: [1-3] 1: Carries no hazardous material, or there is no impact (no flight, tunnels, restricted bridges) 2: Carries hazardous material, but alternate routes do not significantly lengthen transport time 3: Carries hazardous material causing alternative transport routes or methods *Alternatively, alert to TPFDD logisticians for consideration in calculating travel times or air transport considerations.

33. Resource Donor Impact Factor (RDIF) Higher order effects Identify Key Essential Equipment/Personnel Resource (KEE/PR) Impact on institution donating the resource Degradation of baseline and core capabilities Risk incurred in losing capability locally Impact on regional capabilities Impact on war-fighting support missions

34. Operational Risk Management “Readiness Factors”, RF, provide statistical measure of risk of mission success/ failure for given incident types Modeling, simulations, and analysis provide insight beyond the 15 National Planning Scenarios Resource Donor Impact Factor, RDIF, incorporates risk from perspective of donating organization Provides visibility of the impact on “Preparedness Factor” of donating organization or region Higher order effects For given incident types Visibility on other teams (“C” MORE TEAMS)

35. Resource Utility Function = W1(RF) x W2(RsF) x W3(DF) W4(RDIF) x cost RF = Readiness Factor RsF = Responsiveness Factor DF = Deployability Factor RDI = Resource Donor Impact Factor Wx = Weighting factors

36. 7 Layer Model for Command Structure

37. Capabilities Information Management ToolsMedical Capabilities Assessment and Status Tool (M-CAST) Database Systems IT Tools: PHAST, MRDSS, EMPARTS,… Information Network M-CAST Operational Decision Support Systems Manpower Equipment Training Exercises & Assessments Maintenance Sustainment M-CAST provides a Dashboard capability through Data-Brokering to connect and synchronize information and data to appropriate administrative and operational command chains within the Navy and the Department of Defense. Medical Facility based resources are tracked for Preparedness, Readiness, and Utility qualities to support the installation Emergency Management Program, local, immediate response, or Defense Support of Civil Authority with a Common Operating Picture. Data Repository Strategic Headquarters Layer 7 Admin Headquarters Layer 6 Regional Layer 5 Regional Resources & Operational Response Institution (MTF) Layer 4 *Capabilities defined by C MORE TEAMS Institutional Readiness & Preparedness First Receiver Layer 1 Zone/ Group/ Dept/ Division Layer 3 Squad*/ Team Layer 2

38. Data Sharing Across a National Hierarchy Database Systems IT Tools Information Network M-CAST Operational Decision Support System • Capability-based Planning for Global Sourcing • Enterprise Readiness, Preparedness • Requirements, Scenario-based Planning • Regional vulnerabilities, Liabilities • Operational Risk Management • Logistical support requirements • Time Phased Force Deployment Data Planning • Analysis: Trends, Lessons Learned • Evidence-based Outcome Metrics Strategic Headquarters Layer 7 Admin * Headquarters Layer 6 • MTF & Regional Readiness, Preparedness • DoD, Service, Federal Regulation Compliance • Standardized Capabilities Development • Operational Risk Management • Flags: Reports • Lessons Learned Program Analysis • Continuous Quality Improvement Regional Layer 5 • Real-time Dashboard Snapshot • What are our resources? • Are they “Ready”? • Are we “Prepared”--Can we meet expected scenarios and threats? • Where are our vulnerabilities? • What are our surge and sustainment abilities? • Can we support local, national, and global directives? • Squad C MORE TEAMS data • Readiness, Preparedness Factors • Responsiveness, Utility Factors • Resource provider Impact • Squad Deployment Status • USN/ DOD/ JCAHO Compliance • Risk Assessment • Hazard Vulnerability Assessments • Flags: Warnings & Reports, Forecasting • Operational Risk Mgmt • Squad messaging, alerts, activation Institution (MTF) Layer 4 Zone/ Group/ Dept/ Division Layer 3 • Squad C MORE TEAMS data • Readiness & Preparedness Factors • Flags: Warnings, Reports • Operational Risk Management • Squad messaging, alerting • Standardized Capability • Unit Type Code • C MORE TEAMS data input • Readiness Factors • Ticklers, Notices, Warnings • Electronic Muster • Squad messaging, calendars Squad/ Team Layer 2 First Receiver Layer 1 • Training File • Schedules and messages

39. Preparedness Roll-ups Preparedness characterized by geographical/ regional matrices Pop Zones Region States Access Hazards Jurisdiction Geograp Feat All Areas Urban Suburban Sprawl Exurban Industrial Zone Technology Cor Rural Parkland Wilderness Ext Wilderne Ocean All Regions FEMA 1 FEMA 2 FEMA 3 FEMA 4 FEMA 5 FEMA 6 FEMA 7 FEMA 8 FEMA 9 FEMA 10 All States Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana … Roadways Tunnels Bridges Ferries Rail Commuter Freight Waterway Canal River Lake Ocean Aviation Fuel Farms Pipelines Chem Plant HazMat Stor Dams Flood Plains … All Jurisdicti Local Precinct District Burrough City Township County State EMAC FEMA Reg. Federal NGO Coastal Hurricane Tsunami Plains Prairie Flood Hills Mountains Desert Jungle Forest Marsh Seismic Fault Dynamic Dimensions Tiering Weather Traffic Time Cost Course & Harm Political, Economic, Social

40. Preparedness Roll-Ups Preparedness characterized by functional matrices Incident Type Critical Sector ESF Programs Objective Capabilities Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear Explosive Ext Weather Hurricane Snow Storm Tornado T-storm Rain/Flood Siesmic Volcano Earthquake Tsunami Drought Wild Fire Cyber Direct Attack Food & Agriculture Monuments Banking/ Finance Chem/HazaMat Defense Industry Water Medical Energy Emerg Services Information Tech Telecomm Postal & Shipping Transportation ESF # 1 ESF # 2 ESF # 3 ESF # 4 ESF # 5 ESF # 6 ESF # 7 ESF # 8 ESF # 9 ESF # 10 ESF # 11 ESF # 12 ESF # 13 ESF # 14 ESF # 15 All Programs Antiterrorism (AT) CBRN Defense CBRNE IPP COOP Counterprolif. Counterterrorism Crit Infra Protection Emerg Mgmt F&ES Force Protection Homeland Defense Intelligence Counterintelligence Haz Mat HVA Programs MACA Search and Rescue Security/ Law Enf … All Objectiv Capabilities Manning Organization Recognition Equipment Training Exercises Assessment Maintenance Sustainment Triage/ Decon Decontamin Detection Security/ Decon Litter Bearing Rad Survey RadRemed Entry/Exit Cont Epidem Team Vax Team Pub Health EO PharmSurg Trauma Team Aux Sec Force PODS Team

41. Doogle All Programs Antiterrorism (AT) CBRN Defense CBRNE IPP COOP Counterprolif. Counterterrorism Crit Infra Protection Emerg Mgmt F&ES Force Protection Homeland Defense Intelligence Counterintelligence Haz Mat HVA Programs MACA Search and Rescue Security/ Law Enf … Triage/ Decon Decontamin Detection Security/ Decon Litter Bearing Rad Survey Rad Remed Entry/Exit Cont Epidem Team Vax Team Pub Health EO Pharm Surg Trauma Team Aux Sec Force PODS Team All FEMA 1 FEMA 2 FEMA 3 FEMA 4 FEMA 5 FEMA 6 FEMA 7 FEMA 8 FEMA 9 FEMA 10 Pop Zones Roadways Tunnels Bridges Ferries Rail Commuter Freight Waterway Canal River Lake Ocean Aviation # 1 Transp # 2 Comm # 3 PW&En # 4 Fire # 5 EM # 6 Mass C # 7 Log # 8 PH Med # 9 SAR # 10 Oil HM # 11 Ag & Nat # 12 Energy # 13 Pub Safe # 14 Recovery # 15 Ext Affrs Dashboard View of Preparedness Region FEMA State County Resource Type State Taxonomy Provides Views as Filters & Lenses C/w Framework Programs Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear Explosive Ext Weather Hurricane Snow Storm Tornado T-storm Rain/Flood Siesmic Volcano Earthquake Tsunami Drought Wild Fire Cyber Direct Attack Incident Specific Support Function Geographical Features ESF Local Resources Federal Medical Chemical Capabilities Capabilities Dynamic Dimensions Tiering Weather, Traffic Cost Time, Course & Harm Work/ Rest Cycles, Battle Rhythn Capability Deconstruction

42. Doogle Sector Pop Zones Resource Data Tags Dashboard View of Preparedness Region FEMA State County Resource Type State Taxonomy Provides Views as Filters & Lenses C/w Framework Programs Incident Type Support Function Geographical Features ESF Local Federal Medical Chemical Capabilities Capabilities Dynamic Dimensions Tiering Weather, Traffic Cost Time, Course & Harm Work/ Rest Cycles, Battle Rhythn Capability Deconstruction

43. Doogle Resource and Operational Risk Management Requirements Prioritized Resources 3x Security Tm 4x Emerg Serv. 5x Medical Tr Skilled Labor Teams 5x Electrician 5x Carpenter 5x Plumber 5x Roofer 3x Concrete - Masonry 8x Welder 5x Iron Worker 10x Mach. Oper 3x Mechanic 7x InfoTech. 5x HVAC - Painter 2x Legal 7x Religious … Type State # Triage Tm NY3 Decontamin Tm NY3 Detection Tm CA6 Secty/ Decon Tm CA45 Litter Bearing Local Rad Survey Tm NM4 RadRemed Tm CA6 Entry/Exit Cont Local Epidem Team GA1 (CDC) Vax Team USN1 Pub Health EO HHS1 PharmSurg MI6 Trauma Team TX36 Aux Sec Force AL6 PODS Team Local … Resource Utility Factors Location Weather Traffic

44. Recruitment: Resource Node Capabilities with GIS Overlay Reg Regional Command HQ 1 Tier 1 Large MTF, Strategic Installation Tier 2 Hospital, large clinic on strategic installation 2 Tier 3 large clinic 3 Tier 4 Small Branch Medical Clinic 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 3 4 NSC 4 2 4 3 3 4 1 2 B P 4 2 NCA 4 2 4 3 3 CFFC 4 JFCOM NME 1 3 NC 4 4 3 4 4 1 2 3 2 3 NMW 3 4 3 3 1 2 3 3 2 4 2 3 3 1 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3

45. DoD Response to Mass Casualty IncidentMTF Capability Employment Database Systems IT Tools: PHAST, MRDSS, EMPARTS,… Services HQ Agencies Information Network M-CAST Operational Decision Support Systems Overseas:DoS Coordinating Homeland: DHS Coordinating Executive Secretary DoD Cooperating SecDef OSD HD Joint Staff OSD HA Joint Defense Office of Military Support (JDOMS) Requirements Process COCOM Defense Support of Civil Authority (DSCA) JFCOM Incident Occurs 7 7 6 Service Components FCC Joint Field Office JTF CS (US) TriCare Mgmt Activity JRMPs/ EPLO Inter-regional DSCA to regional MTF ICS/ UCS JTF Response 5 MTF 4 Region 4 TF Medical 5 4 1 1 2 MTF 3 MTF 2 2 3 1 3 Region 1 4 2 MTF 4 JRMPs/ EPLO 4 MTF 1 MTF 1 3 MTF 1 5 Inter-regional DSCA to JTF Region 3 4 MTF 4 1 4 FCC MTF 1 JRMPs/ EPLO 5 MTF 3 2 JRMPs/ EPLO MTF 3 3 Inter-regional DSCA to local MTF MTF 2 JRMPs/ EPLO Intra-regional, immediate response Region 2 MTF 4 FCC MTF 2 Resource Sharing DSCA= Defense Support of Civil Authority EPLO= Emergency Preparedness Liaison Officer FCC= Federal Coordinating Center JRMP=Joint Regional Medical Planners ICS/UCS= Incident/ Unified Command System MTF = Military medical treatment facility FCC MTF 2 MTF 3 Local, Immediate Response FCC Intra-regional DSCA to JTF

46. “Ends” Don’t Justify the Means Analysis must drive evolution of outcome metrics “Means” impacted by strategies, policies, goals, and evidence AAR’s typically focus on the “ends”—what went well, what went badly LL’s focus on the layer of management at which they are conducted Focus on means and nudge them in the appropriate direction Tighten the curve (Standardization, focused training/ exercises) Target “Units” Of MORE TEAMS Outcome Metrics Data

47. Control Loops in the Framework Lessons Applied Lessons Identified, Observations, Findings, Issues Risk Analysis Threat Vulnerability Criticality Hazard/ Vulnerability Assessments SME Consensus Evaluation & Learning NowCasting & ForeCasting Action C2, Action Field Caneva After Action Reports COTS IT Engines: Bayesian Analysis, Fractal Phasing Information Exploitation, Novel Intelligence from Massive Data, Inductive Machine Learning SME Data Analysis TEAMS Training, Exercise Assessments, Actual Response Evidence Readiness, Preparedness, & Planning “C” MORE Resources Program Administration Lessons Learned Changes To Policy Or Program • Changes to System include: • Weighting factors (Probabilities) • Program Attributes • Benchmark Thresholds • Calculus • Capabilities Lessons identified, analyzed, associated changes to system made, and Lessons Learned are date/time/group stamped and logged

48. Northern Azimuth : “Optimized Preparedness” Readiness Given current state, our capabilities should be trained, organized, and equipped to these standards. No more and no less. Readiness Factors, Preparedness Factors, Responsiveness Factors, Resource Donor Impact, Resource Utility Factor Bayesian Analysis, Chaos Theory, Control Theory Information Exploitation, Novel Intelligence from Massive Data, Inductive Machine Learning Probability of Mission Success Identify Issues that Cause Mission Failure • Changes to System include: • Weighting factors • Program Objective Attributes • Benchmark Thresholds • Calculus • Capabilities added/ deleted Lessons identified are analyzed, associated changes made to system, and Lessons Learned are date/time/group stamped and logged

49. Future Considerations National Center For Disaster Medicine and Public Health (HSPD 21, para. 38) Joint Program for Disaster Medicine and Public Health Core curricula, training, and research related to medicine and public health in disasters. Oversight of SME panel for analysis??? Dynamic management of dynamic processes Partnership Program Wiki approach to program development Program Management via IT tools Paperless management of programs Theoretical Applications Game Theory Control Theory Network Theory Chaos Theory & System Behavior Critical Limits and Thresholds Fractal Phasing

50. Future Considerations • National Resource Typing System • Is it necessary/ possible? • Should it be “Federal”? • FEMA Regions • Should there be “borders”? • Do borders cause seams?