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Sustainable Energy Strategies for Thailand: CO2 Emission Reduction Targets

This workshop presentation discusses the effects of CO2 emission reduction targets in Thailand from 2000 to 2050. It covers the energy supply and demand, sectoral CO2 emissions, technology-mix in power generation, changes in power supply technology, final energy demand under reduction targets, and the impacts on NOx and SOx emissions. The presentation also highlights the co-benefits of the reduction targets on different sectors and the implications for energy import dependency. Key conclusions emphasize the role of CCS, combined cycle technology, renewable energy, and alternative fuel vehicles in achieving emission reduction goals in Thailand.

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Sustainable Energy Strategies for Thailand: CO2 Emission Reduction Targets

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  1. The 13th International AIM Workshop Tsukuba, February 13-15, 2008 Emissions Inventory and Modelling Applications for Thailand Effects of CO2 Emission Target in Thailand Ram M. Shrestha and Shreekar Pradhan Asian Institute of Technology Thailand Email: ram@ait.ac.th

  2. Thailand Model: Base Case Base Case assumptions: • Hydro Import: • 4000 ktoe (Assumption: 21 GW of hydropower electricity is available as electricity import in the base case by 2050) • Nuclear will be introduced by 2020: • 2500 ktoe (4000 MW) • Nuclear power generation will be available to the maximum of • 20,000 ktoe by 2050 • Biodiesel (B10) will be available up to • 40,000 ktoe by by 2050 • Gasohol (E10) will be available up to • 20,000 ktoe by 2050.

  3. Energy Supply and Demand during 2000-2050

  4. 15% CO2 target CO2 emission • 15% CO2 target introduced from 2015 • 2.7 billion tCO2 would be reduced during 2000-2050 (10%) and 186 billion tCO2 in year 2050 (15%).

  5. CO2 emission per capita in Base Case during 2000-2050

  6. Sectoral CO2 emission in the Base case • Industrial, Transport and Power sectors together account for 94% share in CO2 emission. • Residential, Commercial and Agriculture sectors together account for 6% share in CO2 emission

  7. Sectoral shares in CO2 emission • The power sector would achieve the largest CO2 emission reduction (73%) followed by Transport sector (15%) and Industrial sector (12%).

  8. Technology-mix in Power Generation Shares of different technologies in Power Generation CO2 target would (during 2000-2050) • introduce CCS based coal fired power generation (188 Mtoe). • reduce the shares of IGCC, PFBC and Cogeneration (150 Mtoe). • increase the levels of of combined cycle power generation (130 Mtoe) • decrease the levels of conventional coal and oil based power generation (69 Mtoe). • increase Hydro based power generation (24 Mtoe).

  9. Changes in Power Supply Technology under 15% CO2 Target 15% CO2 target would require (during 2000-2050) • CCS based coal fired power generation (188 Mtoe). • Combined cycle power generation (130 Mtoe) • Hydro based power generation (24 Mtoe).

  10. Final Energy Demand under 15% CO2 Reduction Target • Not significant changes under 15% CO2 target • Industrial and Transport sector would experience a small decrease in energy demand.

  11. Final Energy Demand under 15% CO2 target 8637 8380 • Industrial (108 Mtoe) and Transport sector (159 Mtoe) final energy demand would slightly decline.

  12. Share of technologies in the transport sector • Efficient gasoline/diesel vehicles (30%), hybrid vehicles (24%) would have a major share in the base case followed by bio-diesel (15%) and Gasohol (3%). • 15% CO2 target would increase the share of biodiesel (by 4%), gasohol vehicles (3%) and hybrid vehicles (3%).

  13. NOx emission under 15% CO2 target • 7 million ton of NOx is reduced during 2000-2050.

  14. SOx emission under 15% CO2 target • 40 million ton of SOx is reduced during 2000-2050.

  15. Co-benefits of 15% CO2 target • Power sector would achieve the largest NOx emission reduction followed by the industrial sector. • In transport, 0.4 million ton of NOx would be increased. • Industrial Sector would achieve the largest SOx emission reduction followed by the power and transport sector.

  16. Energy Import Dependency under 15% CO2 target • Energy import dependency reduces by 2% during 2000-2050 • The same would reduce by 4% in year 2050.

  17. Concluding Remarks • To achieve a target of 15% reduction in CO2 emission, • CCS and combined cycle technology in the power sector would play a major role. • Renewable energy would not be contributing significantly in CO2 reduction in the power sector. • In transport sector, bio-diesel, gasohol and hybrid vehicles would have significant role in emission reduction. • The results would be affected if modal shift to railways and other mass transport systems are considered.

  18. Thank you

  19. Thailand: Brief Background • Population:64.76 million • Population Density: 126 people/km2 • GDP: US $ 176 billion • GDP per capita: US $ 2727 (year 2005) • Economy: 2nd largest in ASEAN region • CO2 emission: 179.9 MtCO2 (2004) – 2nd largest emitter in ASEAN • High passenger vehicle ownership rate (Vehicles/thousand people: 324 in Bangkok and 100 (Thailand)) • Electricity generation mainly based on fossil fuels (gas, coal)

  20. TPES from 1971 to 2004 TPES Source: IEA (2006) • Fossil fuel use has been dominating TPES for many years and the fossil fuel use is growing by AAGR of 7.6% since 1991 whereas TPES has AAGR of 5.7% in the same period

  21. Structure of Final Energy Demand • Industrial and Transport sector together account for about 75% of total final energy consumption. Source: DEDE (2006)

  22. Power Sector Fuel Consumption Source: EGAT, 2007 • Natural gas has been occupying the largest share in the power generation

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