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Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry. WMU Climate Change Workshop 7-8 June 2007 Malmo Tim Wilkins Regional Manager Asia Pacific / Environmental Manager tim.wilkins@intertanko.com. INTERTANKO. International Association of Independent Tanker Owners

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possible effects of climate change on the shipping industry

Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry

WMU Climate Change Workshop

7-8 June 2007

Malmo

Tim Wilkins

Regional Manager Asia Pacific / Environmental Manager

tim.wilkins@intertanko.com

slide2

INTERTANKO

  • International Association of Independent Tanker Owners
    • Trade Association for tanker owners
    • 260 members, 40 countries, 2500 tankers,
    • 300 Associate Members
    • INTERTANKO office 25 persons
    • Representation – IMO, Brussels Washington
    • Information advisory service
    • Oslo – London - Washington – Singapore
  • Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of:
    • Zero fatalities
    • Zero pollution
    • Zero detentions
slide3

Overview

  • Shipping effects on Climate Change
    • IMO discussions on Annex VI – CO2 and other GHGs
    • Fuel consumption enhancement
  • What will/does Climate Change mean?
  • Are we already witnessing the evolution of Climate Change effects?
  • Climate Change effects on Shipping
    • Based on the ‘Assumptions’
    • What can the shipping industry expect
slide4

Climate Change

  • Assumptions (generalised)
    • Warmer Seas
    • Sea Level Rise
    • Unpredictable Weather Patterns
slide5

Climate Change

  • Warmer Seas
      • Invasive Species Risk Increase
        • Ballast water e.g. Great Lakes Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia
        • Continued importance of finding treatment systems for ballast water
        • Greater and increased vigilance by coastal states
        • Biofouling
        • Crucial role of anti-fouling systems and hull fouling management
        • Increased requirements on shipping industry associated with biofouling
slide6

Climate Change

  • Warmer Seas cntd.
      • Ice sheet reductions
        • Opening up of new sea routes
        • Oil spill response
        • Tug escort and ice breaker capability
      • Mammal population changes e.g. North Atlantic Right Whale
        • New navigation considerations
  • Sea Level Rise
      • Physical change of coastal zone
        • Change in port infrastructure and expansion
      • Physical change of water basin
        • Opening up of new inland navigable routes
slide7

Climate Change

  • Unpredictable Weather Patterns
      • Increased Storm intensity
        • Wave and swell height / periodicity increases
        • 100 year storm design criteria may need to be revised
      • Increased storm frequency
        • Raises question of fatigue analysis and design life of structure
      • Weather Routing
        • Increasing dependency in weather routing
        • Recognition of increased intensity of storms by commercial entities (consumer and charterer)
slide8

Climate Change

  • Unpredictable Weather Patterns cntd.
      • Warmer climate
        • Reduction of ice sheets leading to increased evaporation in smaller sea areas e.g. Great Lakes
        • Drought conditions
        • Reduced under keel clearance and reduced cargo loading capability
      • Terrestrial Matters
        • Drought / Storm frequency leading to increased sedimentation
        • Increased sediment loading of navigable channels
        • Increased dredging to maintain under keel clearance or
        • Reduced cargo carrying capabilities
        • New designs e.g. Stena V-Max
        • Emerging markets e.g. new agricultural, shifting oil demand
        • Changing trading patterns to be envisaged
slide9

Climate Change

  • Unpredictable Weather Patterns cntd.
      • Seasonal Changes
        • Tropical storms August to November now to January
        • Design life and fatigue issues (Atlantic storm/Pacific storm)
        • Shortened winters and decreased severity of winters will effect iced waterways
        • Increased trade opportunities
slide10

Conclusions

  • - Industry will need to know and understand the perceived physical and biological changes which climate change will bring
  • Time frame assessment – design and commercial consideration when investing in tonnage
  • Monitoring and assessment should begin on what can reasonably be attributed to climate change
  • Regional variations will be a major concern for an international industry
slide11

www.intertanko.com

thank you for your time…