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A Review of 2015 Weather and Climate Conditions in the Southeast US

A Review of 2015 Weather and Climate Conditions in the Southeast US. Victor Murphy NWS Southern Region Climate Service Program Mgr. Introduction. A brief look at temperature and rainfall departures for 2015. Embedded within this are several anomalous extreme events.

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A Review of 2015 Weather and Climate Conditions in the Southeast US

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  1. A Review of 2015 Weather and Climate Conditions in the Southeast US Victor Murphy NWS Southern Region Climate Service Program Mgr.

  2. Introduction • A brief look at temperature and rainfall departures for 2015. • Embedded within this are several anomalous extreme events. • What role will the strong El Nino play for the rest of 2015 into early 2016.

  3. Through October, FL is poised to have its 2nd warmest year on record. Upper tercile warmth in GA and Carolinas. TN, AL, and MS near normal.

  4. 2015 is tied with 2012 for the 2nd warmest year on record in FL, behind only 1990. +2.0F above normal.

  5. So far this month, through 11/17, nearly every major city in FL is having record/near record warmth.

  6. Puerto Rico not immune from the top 5 heat.

  7. Entire southeast has been warm in November, but FL has been enfuego.

  8. With Sea Surface Temperatures Running Anomalously Warm, the Warmth Should Linger. Will El Nino abate this?

  9. Rainfall has by and large been near normal, but several extreme events are embedded within this.

  10. Since the inception of the USDM in 2000, Puerto Rico has never seen severe (D2) drought. This year, nearly 45% of island in severe (dark brown) drought at the end of summer. Has improved. Improvement should continue, due to El Nino.

  11. Similarly, in the middle of summer (typical peak of wet season), nearly all of southeast FL was in severe drought.

  12. Much of South Carolina saw 1 in 1000 year rainfall in 72 hours associated with Hurcn Joaquin.

  13. US Seasonal Drought Outlook. Valid on February 28, 2016

  14. IMPACTS • What Impacts will El Nino bring to the table in winter and spring? • Should greatly alleviate lingering drought in FL and PR. Dryness in FL peninsula going into El Nino should give water managers greater leeway in managing water levels (i.e. COE in Lake Okeechobee). • Threat of drought returning to parts of the southeast US through May is near zero. Concern will be with increased risk for flooding and severe weather. • Impacts of (near) record heat in FL and coastal waters to the local ecosystems?

  15. Summary • Southeast US warmer than normal in general, but FL and PR likely to see top 5 warmest years on record, with FL likely to be the top 1 or 2 warmest on record due to proximity of above normal sea surface temperatures in the offshore waters. • While rainfall has been near normal as a whole, embedded within this has been record setting summer time droughts across PR and in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties of FL. • Also, much of South Carolina saw a 1 in 1000 year rainfall event in early October.

  16. Contact Info Victor W. Murphy@noaa.gov 817-978-1100 x 130

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