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HOT TELECOM. The Future of Voice TOTAL TELECOM Breakfast Briefing June 2013. ‘Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated’ Mr. Voice. Net traffic add (billion minutes). Traffic growth. 16%. 10. 1996. 12%. 17. 2001. 5%. 24. 2012. 5%. 33. 2018F. Traffic: IDD + VoIP off-net.
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HOT TELECOM The Future of VoiceTOTAL TELECOM Breakfast BriefingJune 2013
‘Rumours ofmy death have been greatly exaggerated’ Mr. Voice
Net traffic add(billion minutes) • Traffic growth • 16% • 10 • 1996 • 12% • 17 • 2001 • 5% • 24 • 2012 • 5% • 33 • 2018F • Traffic: IDD + VoIP off-net
Voice traffic growth (%) vs net add (billion minutes) Traffic net add
DEVICE MIGRATIONFixed to mobile World fixed vs mobile IDD traffic ratio In 2006, 32% of the world’s telecom subscribers were subscribed to fixed services. In 2013 this ratio is expected to have decreased to 14%. In 2006, 60% of the world’s IDD traffic was generated by fixed subscribers. In 2013 this ratio is expected to have decreased to 38%.
TECHNOLOGY MIGRATIONTDM to IP World IDD vs VoIP International traffic In 2006, 20% of the world’s International traffic was VoIP traffic. In 2013, this ratio is expected to have reached 32%. In 2018, we are forecasting that 53% of the world’s International traffic will be VoIP traffic.
SOCIAL MIGRATION Calling yesterday Texting today Using apps tomorrow
SOCIAL MIGRATIONVoice to Data • The UK example • People in the UK are now more likely to text than to make a phone call • While 58% of people communicated via texts on a daily basis in 2011, only 47% made a daily mobile call. • For the first time, there was a fall in the volume of mobile calls - by just over 1% - in 2011, while landline calls were down by 10%. • Overall time spent on the phone fell by 5% in 2011. • * Data taken from Ofcom report
SOCIAL MIGRATIONData to OTT World sms vs OTT messages (billion) • * Source: MobiThinking, Portio Research, World Bank
THE GREAT DENIAL • Is that a telecom operator I see with its head in the sand?
“ When a person is faced with the reality of impending death or other extreme, awful fate, he or she will experience a series of emotional stages” THE 5 STAGES OF TELECOM OPERATORS’ GRIEF Denial Anger Depression Bargaining Acceptance
READY FOR THE FIGHT
HOW ARE OPERATORS REACTING The OTT Challenge • Do nothing (wait and see) • Block OTTs • Partner with or buying OTTs • Compete with OTTs • Create an app • RCS-e / Joyn • Grow other market segments
HOW ARE OPERATORS REACTING The IP Challenge • Ride the TDM wave until the end and focus on data • Get ready for the IP convergence (adopt IPX) • Grow into other segments (data, content, media)
SERVICE EVOLUTION • We're in the midst of an evolution, not a revolution
THE NEW VOICE • Voice will not die but it will look different
BUSINESS MODELSWhat’sTheFuture • Convergence of voice and data into a single pipe, offering, bundle. • Voice becomes one of a series of IP services. • Consolidation of the International wholesale market could be triggered by IPX and migration to IP. • Per minute billing for voice could evolve to a capacity based billing down the line.
‘The best way to predict the future is to create it.’ • Peter Drucker
CONTACTINFORMATION • Isabelle Paradis, President +1 514 270 1636 sales@hottelecoms.com www.hottelecom.com