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The NCAR Earth System Laboratory (NESL). Greg Holland Director. The Mission of the NCAR Earth System Laboratory is to advance the understanding of weather, climate, atmospheric composition and processes; to provide facility support to the wider community; and to apply these to benefit society.

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The NCAR Earth System Laboratory (NESL)

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    1. The NCAR Earth System Laboratory(NESL) Greg Holland Director The Mission of the NCAR Earth System Laboratory is to advance the understanding of weather, climate, atmospheric composition and processes; to provide facility support to the wider community; and to apply these to benefit society. NESL Overview NSF 0110

    2. Summary • Introducing NESL • NESL Strategic Imperatives • Working with the Community • Understanding and Predicting the Earth System: Some Science Highlights NESL Overview NSF 0110

    3. NESL Structure Admin and Systems Support; Report to Lab Executive; Staff Embedded into Divisions Laboratory Executive Members Lab Science, Research, Facilities, and Applications Structure; Reporting through Division Directors NESL Overview NSF 0110

    4. Atmospheric Chemistry DivisionBill Randel, Director • Conducts research aimed at quantifying and predicting the role of atmospheric chemistry in the Earth system • Foci • Evaluating effects of emissions, deposition, transport, and chemical transformations on atmospheric composition • Quantifying coupling with the physical climate system across a broad range of scales • Leads development and use of NCAR chemistry instrumentation for aircraft and satellite measurements • Develops and maintains state-of-the-art community chemistry modeling tools • WACCM • WRF-Chem NESL Overview NSF 0110

    5. Climate & Global Dynamics DivisionBill Large, Director • Conducts research into key climate system processes • Foci • Understanding the component of the Earth's climate system and the interactions among them • Developing a capacity to represent these interactions in odels and thus provide a basis for prediction of climate • Applying understanding and models to scientific problems of societal relevance • Extensively involved in leadership positions for national and international Climate Observing and Research Programs • Works with DOE/community to develop/maintain CCSM & CESM plus provide climate model data NESL Overview NSF 0110

    6. Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology DivisionRich Rotunno, Director • Conducts collaborative Earth-System Science Research • Foci • Advancing the knowledge of earth-system processes • Advancing the science of atmospheric prediction across all scales • Conduct leading-edge research and development in multi-scale interactions, dynamics and prediction, precipitation processes, atmospheric chemistry and biology, and boundary layers • Communicating forecast information to the public • With the community develops and refines advanced, state-of-the-art science research and application tools • Models • Instrumentation • Data sets NESL Overview NSF 0110

    7. NESL Staff Profile NESL Overview NSF 0110

    8. FY2009 ESL Staff Achievements • Published 389 Publications • UCAR Only: 66 • UCAR & University: 114 • UCAR & Other: 59 • UCAR, University & Other: 150 • Education & Outreach • Held 16 teaching positions • Served as advisors for 56 graduate students • Served as dissertation or thesis committee members for 57 graduate students • Supported 13 student & post-doc positions • Community Service • Hosted 13 colloquia, symposia, tutorials • Conducted 34 workshops • Served on 173 scientific, technical, policy &/or educational committees • Gave 749 scientific & technical presentations • Gave 21 informal science education presentations • Participated in 25 Field Projects • Received 17 external awards & honors NESL Overview NSF 0110

    9. NESL Strategic Imperatives NESL conducts collaborative Earth-System Science Research, Facility Development and Societal Outreach aimed at • Sustaining and nurturing fundamental disciplinary programs, while reaching out to engage other disciplines in accomplishing our goals • Undertaking transformational research, which involves an element of risk but is essential to improving our understanding of the earth system and to our development of major community facilities • Engaging with community leaders and policy makers to convey research findings, to develop new research directions, and to emphasize the importance of investment in research and major facility development • Investing wisely in the maintenance and continuing development of community modeling, instrumental and experimental facilities • Developing next-generation tools and techniques utilizing cutting-edge research and in collaboration with the wider community • Encouraging and promoting new, diverse talent into our field through participation in educational programs from K12 through graduate university, and by mentoring students and young scientists. NESL Overview NSF 0110

    10. Prediction Across Scales Program Supporting Major NSF Facilities Weather Research and Forecasting WRF WRF-Chem, WRF-Fire Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) Advanced Hurricane Research WRF (AHW) High-impact Weather Research, Communicating Forecast Information Data Assimilation EnKF (DART) 4D-Var 3D-Var Nudging Data Assimilation Research Human Activity in an Earth System Model Hierarchy • Global Climate System Research & Development • CCSM • CESM • WACCM • Global Diagnostics • Regional Climate Prediction • NRCM • High-Impact Weather • Chemistry & Air Quality • Water Resource • Societal Impacts • Model for Prediction Across Scales • Next-generation Modeling System • Developing a capacity to run on massively parallel computing systems NESL Overview NSF 0110

    11. Community Climate System Model: Contributing to the IPCC Characteristic & Probablistic Predictions Over 2,700 sites from 120 countries, 7000 active users, 150 Tb downloaded since 2006 NESL Overview NSF 0110

    12. Weather Research and Forecasting Model A Major International Facility Probablistic& Explicit Prediction WRF Registered Users The leading atmospheric modeling System in the world, used in: 125 Countries >50 Operational Forecast Centers >11,000 registered users NESL Overview NSF 0110 4145 active subscribers to

    13. UCAR Community Survey Program Interaction Details UCAR-NCAR Interactions Applicability of UCAR-NCAR Research NESL Overview NSF 0110

    14. Understanding and Predicting the Earth System: Science Highlights • Boundary-layers and Turbulence • Atmospheric Chemistry and Biology • Cloud Processes • Climate Variability and Change • Weather and Climate Prediction • Preparing for the Petascale NESL Overview NSF 0110

    15. Boundary Layer and Turbulence NESL Overview NSF 0110

    16. Coupled Canopy-Soil-Atmosphere Modeling Across Scales Ned Patton MMM • Tall canopies cover about 30% of the Earth’s surface • Impact turbulent exchange through enhanced mixing and distributed sources/sinks of momentum and scalars • Weather and climate models can’t currently resolve canopy processes • Canopy-resolving LES – canopy scalar source/sink typically prescribed NESL Overview NSF 0110

    17. Canopy-Resolving NOAH LSM Coupled Canopy-Soil-Atmosphere Modeling Across Scales Hourly-averaged heat budgets driving the canopy-LSM with 5-min averaged CHATS observations. • Driven by wind, temperature, humidity and radiation profiles from models or observations • Predicts within-canopy profiles of:leaf temperature, radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, chemical sources NESL Overview NSF 0110 measured modeled

    18. Coupled Canopy-Soil-AtmosphereModeling Across Scales • Canopy-focused observations • CHATS, Manitou Forest Observatory, ACME, … • Turbulence-resolving calculations with land-surface coupling (LES-LSM) – incorporating canopies, clouds, and chemistry • Integrating process-level studies into 1D PBL models for use in weather and climate models (e.g., WRF, CCSM) NESL Overview NSF 0110

    19. Atmospheric Chemistry Pollution in the Mexico City Valley (Photo taken from the NASA/UND DC-8 Aircraft) NESL Overview NSF 0110

    20. OASIS OASIS experiment to understand halogen-induced Arctic ozone depletion Barrow, Alaska Spring 2009 NCAR Contributions: OH, HO2, RO2, VOC/OVOC, CH2O H2SO4, aerosol properties, radiation Fast O3, NOx/NOy, PAN Models Surface Measurements Satellite BrO Measurements O3 x BrO NESL Overview NSF 0110

    21. NESL Overview NSF 0110

    22. Ozone observations from OASIS Surface ozone Ozone depletion events Time (~33 days) NESL Overview NSF 0110

    23. Advancing knowledge on Mega-cities: Shanghai NCAR-SMB pilot field study Sept. 2009 Satellite NO2 measurements

    24. 2009 Pilot Field Study (1-21 September, 2009) Shanghai Meteorological Bureau NCAR/NESL/ACD Texas A&M University, Peking University, Fudan University Rural Remote Edge of Urban Urban Urban center Chemical Industry

    25. Initial results from Shanghai hydrocarbon measurements

    26. Mar. 06 Satellite Instruments Carbon Monoxide from MOPITT (flying on Terra since 1999) NESL Overview NSF 0110

    27. North American Monsoon2006 WRF-Chem Simulation NESL Overview NSF 0110 Mary Barth and Alma Hodzic

    28. Cloud Processes • Two-moment scheme (predicting mixing ratios and number concentrations of hydrometeors) produced much more extensive trailing stratiform precipitation that one-moment version of the same scheme (predicting mixing ratios only) • Differences in the results were mainly attributed to different treatments of the rain-size distribution and evaporation rate. Strong impact on storm dynamics through cold-pool strength Morrison et al. (2009, MWR) Time-distance plot of surface precip. rate the two-moment scheme one-moment scheme Stratiformprecip (between 0.5 and 5 mm h-1) gray-shaded NESL Overview NSF 0110

    29. Aircraft-Induced Hole Punch and Canal Clouds Hole-Punch & Canal Clouds: Overlooked in past but now becoming more ubiquitous due to the flight altitudes of turboprops and regional jets Weatherwise (1966)

    30. C130 C130 C130 cloud radar looking up-down along track Lidar looking up: Hole in cloud produced by aircraft is above blue vertical band. Radar Up Radar Down Line Echo Lidar Up <Hole Imagery 2D probe • High ice concentrations were noted in the snow band and snow fell to the ground. • The mechanisms producing the feature are due to thrust generated by the turboprop aircraft, generating expansion and cooling of the air to <-40C where the cloud droplets homogeneously nucleate. NESL Overview NSF 0110

    31. Climate Variability and Change Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) NESL Overview NSF 0110

    32. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) • A comprehensive climate model to: • Investigate and predict seasonal and interannual variability in the climate • Explore the history of Earth’s climate • Estimate future of environment for policy formulation • Contribute to assessments • Collaborations are critical • Developed by NCAR, National Laboratories and Universities • Fully documented, supported and freely distributed • One code base: runs on multiple platforms and resolutions • Higher resolution and increasing complexity NESL Overview NSF 0110

    33. Present Activities • NCAR and partners will make a major contribution to IPCC AR5 through • simulations performed with the latest versions of the CCSM • Following CMIP5 Experimental Design (Taylor et al. 2009): • A set of coordinated climate model experiments; • Five-year design, but majority completed in 2010; • Initialized decadal prediction and climate change (through 2300) • Includes carbon cycle, paleoclimate and whole atmosphere Release Schedule • April 1, 2010: CCSM4.0 release • full documentation, including User's Guide, Model Reference • Documents, and experimental data • June 1, 2010: CESM1.0 release • ocean ecosystem, CAM-AP, interactive chemistry, WACCM NESL Overview NSF 0110

    34. Increasing Complexity Surface Energy Fluxes Hydrology CLM3 NESL Overview NSF 0110

    35. Increasing Complexity Surface Energy Fluxes Hydrology Carbon/Nitrogen Cycling Urbanization CLM4 Vegetation Dynamics Land Use & Change Permafrost Bonan (2009) NESL Overview NSF 0110

    36. Simulation of Future Climate Abrupt Transitions In Summer Sea Ice • Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease • Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years • Relevant factors: • Ice thinning • Arctic heat transport • Albedo feedback • Winter maximum shows smaller, gradual decreases NESL Overview NSF 0110

    37. Predicting Weather and Climate • Chemical Weather • Wildland Fire • Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction Program • High Impact Weather • Hurricanes • Severe Local Storms • Regional Climate • CCSM Initialized Predictions • Nested Regional Climate Model NESL Overview NSF 0110

    38. Chemical Weather Prediction • Daily chemical weather forecasts now available via ACD web site • Forecasts and analysis for field campaigns • Chemical data assimilation and satellite development studies David Edwards Gabi Pfister Louisa Emmons NESL Overview NSF 0110

    39. Antarctic Mesocale Prediction System (AMPS) • Supports NSF’s Larissa Effort • AMPS: Real-time, experimental NWP system to support Antarctic forecasting and science using WRF • • Funding/Support • NSF Office of Polar Programs • UCAR and Lower Atmospheric Facilities Oversight Sec. • Partners: NCAR, The Ohio State University, Colorado Univ. • Users • U.S. Antarctic Program (USAP) forecasters • Researchers, Grad students • International community • Scientific field campaigns NESL Overview NSF 0110

    40. AMPS Regular WRF Domains 15 km 5 km 5 km 45-km/15-km/5-km/1.67-km 45 km ● Christchurch 5 km 15 km LARISSA 1.67 km McMurdo ● South Pole ● McMurdo NESL Overview NSF 0110

    41. AMPS Larissa: Grid and Products SLP 3-hrly Precipitation Winds and Wind Speed (shaded) 1000 ft AGL streamlines AMPS LARISSA Forecast Initialization: 00 UTC 21 Jan 2010 Hr 36

    42. CCSM4.0: Initialized (Decadal) Predictions Reduced North Atlantic biases Sea Surface Temperature (ºC) Barotropic Streamfunction (Sv) Initialized Ocean DART Anderson et al. (2009) Hindcast Yeager et al. (2010)

    43. Multi-decadal Regional Climate Predictions of Mountain Precipitation, Wind Energy and Hurricanes 36 km 12 km 4 km 4 km Supported by: NSF, DOE, Offshore Oil Industry, Willis Re • Global Model: 3 Ensembles from 1950-2060 • NRCM: 995-2005, 2020-2030, 2045-2055, 3 ensembles at 36km, 1 at 12 km, specific cases at 4 km • Use of statistical downscaling to fill in intermediate periods NESL Overview NSF 0110

    44. April Snow Depth Observations NRCM 12km National Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center 2005 (m) (cm) CCSM3 T85 2046 NESL Overview NSF 0110

    45. Equatorward Movement of Hurricanes Longer periods over warmer oceans implies more intense tropical cyclones and a substantial increase in the most intense ones. Note the increase in “Cape Verde Hurricanes”! (Holland et al 2010) NESL Overview NSF 0110

    46. Preparing for Petascale • Next-generation scientific problems will push limits of complexity (resolution, physics, and model coupling…) • Applications must scale efficiently on HPC systems with O(105) processors to achieve petascale computing rates (1015 flop/second) • WRF Nature Run • Gordon Bell Finalist at SC07 • 150K processors Cray XT5 at ORNL NESL Overview NSF 0110

    47. Preparing CCSM for Petascale Computing Real Planet: 1/8º Simulations (56K cores) Lat-lon grid based CAM dycore is largest bottle- neck to parallel scalability Aim is to improve scalability by introduction of cubed-sphere based dycores (from HOMME) into CAM AMIP simulations show scalability is preserved in CCSM  expectation of scaling to 340K processors Capability for ultra-high resolution simulations Courtesy Mark Taylor NESL Overview NSF 0110

    48. Hurricane Bill(18-23 August 09)Simulations on ALCF Blue Gene/P NESL Overview NSF 0110

    49. Model for Prediction Across Scales:MPAS Modeling system for unstructured icosahedral (hexagonal) meshes using selective grid refinement Jointly developed, primarily by LANL and NCAR. MPAS infrastructure - NCAR, LANL, others. MPAS - Atmosphere (NCAR) MPAS - Ocean (LANL) MPAS - Ice, etc. Bill Skamarock, NCAR Todd Ringler, LANL Joe Klemp, NCAR John Thuburn, Exeter University Michael Duda, NCAR Max Gunzburger, Florida State University LiliJu, University of South Carolina • Applications • Weather • Regional climate • Climate NESL Overview NSF 0110

    50. MPAS formulation is demonstrably accurate and efficient at both large and small scales, and should scale well on next-generation supercomputers. Global model Prediction Across Scales Hex cloud model 500 m cell spacing Supercell at 2 hours Vertical velocity contours at 1, 5, and 10 km (c.i. = 3 m/s) 30 m/s vertical velocity surface shaded in red Rainwater surfaces shaded as transparent shells Perturbation surface temperature shaded on baseplane Jablonowski and Williamson baroclinic wave test case. Relative vorticity (s-1), day 16 (jet level)