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Michael D. Jackson Scott Fable Shyam Venkatesh TIAX, LLC 1601 S. De Anza Blvd, Suite 100 Cupertino, California 95014-536 PowerPoint Presentation
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VIABILITY OF UREA INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SCR SYSTEMS U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Diesel Engine Implementation Workshop CHICAGO, ILLINOIS August 6-7, 2003. Michael D. Jackson Scott Fable Shyam Venkatesh TIAX, LLC 1601 S. De Anza Blvd, Suite 100 Cupertino, California 95014-5363

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VIABILITY OF UREA INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SCR SYSTEMS U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyClean Diesel Engine Implementation WorkshopCHICAGO, ILLINOISAugust 6-7, 2003

Michael D. Jackson

Scott Fable

Shyam Venkatesh

TIAX, LLC

1601 S. De Anza Blvd, Suite 100

Cupertino, California 95014-5363

408.517.1550

slide2

SCR Urea ImplementationSummary

  • Urea can be distributed at prices comparable to the price of diesel
    • Focus urea distribution to the large public and private diesel retailers serving the Class 7 & 8 trucks sector and consuming nearly 97 percent of the diesel
    • The current world and domestic production capacity of urea is sufficient to cover the increased demand from mobile SCR urea
    • Cost to retail urea is reasonable for the largest retailers and is less than the price of diesel
    • There is a small segment in terms of diesel consumption (3%) that will see urea at prices around $3/gallon
    • SCR urea is very competitive with NOx adsorber in the early years (2007) and markedly cheaper in later years (2015)
    • For SCR urea to be implemented successfully, all stakeholders must work in a concerted manner

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L - Local; < 200 miles

MR - Medium Range; 200 - 500 miles

LR - Long Range; > 500 miles

CF - Central company-owned fueling station; Fleet Stations

SC - Single contract fueling facility located off site; Cardlocks

P - Public fueling station; Truck stops and conventional retail stations

O - Other fueling habit

SCR Urea ImplementationDiesel Consumption

2002 On-Road Diesel Consumption: 35 billion gal

85 % of all

diesel consumed

Medium

Class 3-5

10,001 - 19,500 lb

Light

Class 1-2

< 10,000 lb

Light-Heavy

Class 6

19,501 - 26,000 lb

Heavy

Class 7&8

> 26,001 lb

L

50%

LR

19.7%

LR

LR

LR

MR

14.9%

L

6.9%

MR

L

3.7%

MR

L

2.9%

MR

CF

5.6%

CF

3.7%

CF

14.3%

CF

CF

CF

CF

CF

CF

CF

CF

CF

S = 23.6%

SC

1.3%

SC

1.1%

SC

4.5%

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

S = 6.9%

P

31.2%

P

8.1%

P

14.9%

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

S = 54.2%

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

1.1%

O

O

O

O

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SCR Urea ImplementationFueling Station Profiles

Profiles of Fueling Stations Serving the Class 7 & 8 Truck Market

Station Size

(Monthly Diesel Consumption)

# of Public &

Private Stations

Diesel Consumption

Large

(2,000,000 — 1,000,000 gal/month)

2,200

77%

Medium

(200,000 – 80,000 gal/month)

3,500

20%

Small

(<80,000 gal/month)

>25,000

3%

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projected annual urea consumption

1,200

High NOx engine out

1,000

800

Urea Consumption (million gallons of

urea 32.5%wt solution)

600

Low NOx engine out

400

Urea consumption if SCR-

Urea consumption if SCR-

urea implemented

200

urea implemented

starting with MY2010

starting with MY2007

0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Calendar Year

SCR Urea ImplementationProjected Annual Urea Consumption

Projected Annual Urea Consumption

2007 Total Diesel Consumption ~43 Billion Gal

2015 Total Diesel Consumption ~57 Billion Gal

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SCR Urea ImplementationUrea Supply vs. Demand

World & Domestic Urea Supply vs. Demand

MM Tons/Yr

* -- Corresponds to 250 - 1,100 MMgal of 32.2% Aqueous urea

Domestic demand includes stationary side SCR usage

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retail urea cost by diesel station throughput

SCR Urea ImplementationRetail Urea Cost

Retail Urea Cost by Diesel Station Throughput

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

Cost, $/gal

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Urea Throughput, gal/month

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Cost Comparison Parameters for Line-haul Application

2007

2010

2015

SCR-Urea Implementation StrategiesSCR Urea-NOx Adsorber Break-Even Analysis

Assumptions:

  • $1.55/gal diesel
  • 1 million miles over vehicle life
  • High EGR used on alternative systems for MY2007-09 and on all vehicles for MY2010+
  • Maintenance costs same for all systems

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breakeven urea prices for various scenarios

Breakeven Urea Price $4.91-$6.89

Breakeven Urea Price $2.51

SCR Urea ImplementationPrice of Urea Compared to Competing NOx Technologies

Breakeven Urea Prices for Various Scenarios

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SCR Urea ImplementationStakeholders

All stakeholders must move in a concerted manner

  • Truck Operators - key stakeholders since aggregate fueling habits almost evenly distributed between public fueling facilities and private central fueling facilities. Will require installing a urea dispensing facility in their central fleet refueling facilities and need to leverage infrastructure at public facilities. Will require assurance from truck and engine manufacturers on the availability of urea and SCR systems before investing in vehicles or infrastructure.
  • Urea Retailers - primary retailers of diesel to the Class 7 & 8 truck market. The large truck stops and central fleet fueling facilities are best early adopters. Will require strong signals from customer (truck operators) to carry infrastructure.
  • Urea Distributors - these are likely to be existing diesel distributors, ag urea distributors and new entrants. Are key to coordinating supply and demand and will require early strong signals from upstream and downstream members in the value chain to make investments.
  • Systems Providers - vendors of urea distribution, storage, and dispensing equipment. Existing players servicing the petroleum industry are well situated to handle urea. Some niche urea systems developers already exist in Europe.
  • Engine & Truck Manufacturers - providers of SCR technology. Must initiate strong signals to all downstream members in the value chain on impending this emerging technology.

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SCR Urea Implementation

Thank you for you attention

Acknowledgements

TIAX would like to acknowledge the Engine Manufacturers Association and the National Renewable Energy Labs for making this study possible

  • Further Published References:
  • “Development of a Urea Infrastructure to Support MY2007+ Heavy-duty Emission Requirements,” TIAX report to NREL, Contract # ADZ-3-33020-01, May 2003
  • “Selective Catalytic Reduction Urea Infrastructure Study,” Arthur D. Little report to NREL, Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337

Contact

Michael D. Jackson - jackson.michael@tiax.biz

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