Participatory simulations for developing scenarios in environmental resource management
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The FIRMA Project is supported by European Union's Framework 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its Key Action on Sustainable Management and Quality of Water programme (contract EVK1-CT1999-00016).

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Participatory simulations for developing scenarios in environmental resource management

The FIRMA Project is supported by European Union's Framework 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its Key Action on Sustainable Management and Quality of Water programme (contract EVK1-CT1999-00016)

Participatory simulations for developing scenarios in environmental resource management

Nigel Gilbert,Sarah Maltby

Tasia Asakawa

University of Surrey


Policy and applied research
Policy and applied research 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Inform

  • Inspire

  • Influence

  • Develop

  • Encourage

Decision-makers

(policymakers)

Communities


Academic social science context
Academic social science context 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Scepticism about the possibility of prediction

  • Theoretical abstraction important but application difficult

  • Increased demands for relevance and application


A new ish approach
A new(ish) approach 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Since the 1960s

    • Interactive social science

    • Participatory methods

    • Action research

  • In all these

    • Stakeholders learn from their peers as well as from social scientists

    • Academics are also stakeholders

    • Praxis

      • Tacit as well as formalised knowledge about action and its consequences


Interactive or participatory social science
Interactive or participatory social science 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Users and beneficiaries in collaboration with academics

  • Participatory methods have been advocated as a way of

    • Empowering the disadvantaged

    • Involving the powerful

    • Reducing the distance between academic and lay discourse


Advantages
Advantages 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Brings different perspectives

  • Brings different kinds of knowledge

    • Lay knowledge

    • Expert knowledge

    • Academic knowledge

  • Identifies crucial problems

  • Stakeholders have some ownership of results


Problems
Problems 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Representation of distributed stakeholders

    • E.g. ‘the public’

  • Dealing with conflict between stakeholders

  • Confidentiality and privacy

  • Maintaining the motivation of participants


Agent based social simulation
Agent-based social simulation 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Stakeholders are represented in the model as agents

  • The agents have the goals, beliefs, and capabilities of the real stakeholders (or some simplified version of these)

  • Then let the model run to see what happens

  • In order to develop scenarios, spot recurrent patterns of action, identify unanticipated consequences…


Participatory simulations for developing scenarios in environmental resource management
But… 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • At best, stakeholders can have a ‘God’s eye view’ of the model, observing its outputs, while what they want is to understand the setting from their own perspective

  • Hence stakeholders either have to do some translation or (perhaps more likely) they just ignore the model because the translation is too difficult.

  • The model doesn’t give them much help with an intuitive understanding of the dynamics


Putting the user in the model
Putting the user in the model 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

An alternative is to replace some or even all of the agents by real stakeholders (or their representatives)

  • The model becomes a multi-user strategy simulation

  • Analogous to single person vs. multi-player computer games


Advantages1
Advantages 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • More engaging for the users

  • More realistic

    • Instead of ‘looking down’ on the model, the player participates in a virtual setting

  • Users can treat the simulation like a flight simulator

    • Practice in circumstances that would be dangerous if carried out in real life

    • Scenarios can be established in the simulation as starting points and then users see what happens from there


More advantages
More advantages 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Conflict between stakeholders can be observed and/or modelled

  • Can provide data for researchers on what people would do

    • Elicits tacit knowledge

    • Not just what they say they would do

    • And on how they react to others’ actions that are in response to their actions (etc.)


Distributed multi user models
Distributed multi-user models 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Participants can be anywhere, provided that they have internet access

    • E.g. in their office

  • No duration restrictions

    • Can be involved while doing their ordinary work

  • But

    • Less motivation without face-to-face interaction

    • Technical difficulties less easy to solve

    • Requires internet access


Implementation options
Implementation options 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

  • Client-side

    • Needs to run on many differently configured PCs

    • Java, Javascript

    • Inter-player communication hard to implement and control

  • OR

    • Server side

      • All software runs on a central server

      • Server generates HTML pages dynamically

      • Client only needs a standard web browser

      • Inter-player communication is simple to implement


  • Server side implementation
    Server side implementation 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    • Apache web server

      • Standard web server

    • PHP

      • Scripting language

        • All normal programming constructs

        • Basic object orientated features

        • Good interfaces to other software and libraries

    • Relational database

      • PostgreSQL

      • MySQL

    • TCP/IP or other inter-process communication to other models

    • All this is open source, free and available under the GNU licence


    The server
    The server 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    Program

    Apache Web

    Server

    PHP

    module

    Page

    request

    HTML

    Data

    Read/write

    Web page

    PostgreSQL

    database


    Sample php

    PHP: programming language similar to C++ 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    Sample PHP

    <?php

    function show_scale($val) {

    /* display a bar to show value of $val */

    $val=round($val);

    if ($val > 10) $val = 10;

    if ($val < 0 ) $val = 0;

    $colour = ($val >= 5 ? 'grn' : 'red');

    echo "<td><img SRC=\"images/bar-$colour-$val.jpg\"

    ALT=\"Value=$val\"

    width=104 height=14></td>\n";

    }

    ?>

    Embedded HTML


    Interface between php and the database
    Interface between PHP and the database 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    $n_msgs = 3;

    /* get the last 3 public messages */

    $query = new query("SELECT id, sender, recipient,

    to_char(timesent, 'HH24:MI on DD Mon')

    as senttime,

    timeread, msg

    FROM msgs

    WHERE (recipient = 'All')

    ORDER BY timesent DESC LIMIT $n_msgs");

    display_msgs($query);

    SQL statement sent to database


    The context
    The context 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    • Drought in summer 1976 led to shock to Zurich’s water supply system

      • Capacity increased to guarantee a secure supply

      • But over-supply leads to risk of stagnant water

      • Water demand has since fallen as a result of water saving technology and changing business behaviour

    • Water utility regarded as inefficient due to high fixed costs

    • Demand management through pricing would allow parts of the system to be closed

      • But tariffs ultimately controlled by public through referenda


    Playing the game design choices
    Playing the game: design choices 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    • Roles

      • Stakeholder representatives play their own roles

        • They bring their own knowledge to game

      • Stakeholders play other roles

        • Not tied to prior positions and strategies

    • Time

      • Real-time

        • Too slow!

      • Game time

        • Player events drive time forwards

      • Simulated Clock time


    Computational agents
    Computational agents 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    • The model can include computational agents as well as ‘real players’ (people)

      • When real players are absent (on holiday, away from the office,…)

      • When real players have not or cannot be recruited

      • Test of modelling adequacy: Can they be distinguished by their actions from real players?

    • If all players are agents, game reverts to being a conventional multi-agent simulation


    Evaluating the model
    Evaluating the model 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    • Robustness

      • Yields policy advice that applies in a range of scenarios

    • Transparency

      • Model is understandable to stakeholders

    • Evaluating the process

      • Is it used?

      • Is effect lasting?

      • Has learning occurred?


    Summary
    Summary 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    • Computational models can be used for discovery or for policy

      • And possibly for both at the same time

    • If they are to be used for policy, their use must be carefully designed with an understanding of the policy context

    • That context consists of people with many different pressures, goals, experiences and interests

    • And often situations of deep-rooted conflict and power differences


    Participatory methods and simulation
    Participatory methods and simulation 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the European Commission as part of its

    • Multi-agent simulations can profitably be used as a component of participatory methods, with some agents being computational and others human

    • The design of the simulation will help to recover and formalise the knowledge of the participants

    • The use of the simulation will help to educate the participants about options and consequences of action

    • The method recognises (as many participatory methods do not) the inherent conflict in many settings