Residential New Construction And Codes and Standards High Level Findings And Ongoing Studies

1. Residential New Construction And Codes and Standards High Level FindingsAnd Ongoing Studies Mary Kay Gobris PG&E September 22, 2004 CALMAC Meeting

2. Listing of Completed Statewide Studies • Projected Impact of 2001 and 2005 Code Changes –Itron – June 2001 and March 2004 • Baseline Characteristics and Code Compliance – Itron – September 2001 and 2002 – Homes Built in 1999 and 2000 • Phase One Evaluation of 2002 RNC Program – RLW and Itron –March 2004

3. Listing of On-Going Statewide Studies • Baseline Characteristics and Code Compliance Study – Itron - Homes Built in 2003 • New Construction Potential Study – Itron and RLW • Phase Two Evaluation of 2002 RNC Program and Evaluation of 2004-5 Program – RLW • 2006 Strategy Assessment – RLW, KEMA and Itron

4. Project Advisory Teams • RNC Evaluation and Potential Teams: SCE – Shahana Samiullah, Rich Pulliam, Cathy Chappell (HMG); SDG&E – Henry De Jesus, David Blanke; PG&E – Rafael Friedmann, Mary Kay Gobris; CPUC – Eli Kollman and Jay Luboff • Codes and Standards Team: SCE – Rich Pulliam, Tony Pierce, Cathy Chappell and Doug Mahone (HMG); SDG&E – Henry De Jesus, Mary Wold; PG&E – Pat Eilert, Gary Fernstrom, Misti Bruceri, Steve Blanc, Mary Kay Gobris; CEC – Bill Pennington; CPUC – Eli Kollman

5. Overview of C&S and Residential New Construction • Title 24 energy codes establish standard energy budgets • Energy budgets specify maximum kbtu/sq foot of energy usage • Builders are allowed to trade-off between measures • Typical tradeoffs are installation of more glazing vs. installation of EEF appliances

6. Title 24 Code Changes • Title 24 codes are updated about every three years • Database of actual homes to estimate statewide impact of code changes – 1998 -- Minimal changes – 2001 -- Decreased energy usage by 15% – 2005 -- Decreased energy usage by 20% • 25% to 50% impact in inland areas and desert for both 2001 and 2005 code changes

7. Code Compliance Analyses • Code compliance analyzed three times: 1995, 1998, 2001 codes • Analyses used on site data – 1995 codes based on 648 homes built in 1998-99 – 1998 codes based on 575 homes built in 2000 – 2001 codes based on 575 homes built in 2003 • Data collection includes all major items in the Micropas CEC approved compliance model. • Micropas models run for each home

8. Building Characteristics Comparison • Significant changes from 1999 to 2003 – Increased square footage of 17% – Number of homes without A/C reduced from 20% to 12% – Percent glazing reduced from 17% to 15% – Increased use of low-E widows from 10% to 83% – Increased AFUE of furnaces from 80.4 to 81.2 • Increased use of >11 SEER HVAC in Central Valley and Desert from 4% to 60%. • Minimal changes from 1999 to 2003 – Water heating efficiencies, radiant barriers, insulation

9. Compliance Analyses Results

10. Compliance Analyses Results By Climate ZoneFor 2001 Codes

11. Energy Star New Homes Program (ESNHP) • Statewide program first implemented in 2002 • Prior to 2002, each utility was offering rebates for the installation of specific measures • Current program requires 15% energy reductions from the current code

12. Phase 1 Evaluation of ESNHP • Phase 1 Evaluation of ESNHP • Evaluation based on title 24 Micropas simulation models, when builders applied to the program • Overall ESNHP exceeded code by 20% – 26% in north coastal – 22% in desert – 20% elsewhere

13. Phase 2 Evaluation of ESNHP • Evaluation based on fully constructed and inspected homes • Evaluation conducted when 60% of homes are built • Analyses will compare ESNHP with “the code home” and actual non-participant homes • Anecdotal evidence that windows are more efficient than in compliance documentation

14. New Construction Potential Study • Study Conducted for Residential, Commercial and Industrial Sectors • Study Identifies Measure Bundles to Achieve 15% to 25% Better than 2001 and 10% to 15% Better than 2005 Standards • Study Identifies Economic Potential • Study Also Incorporates Codes and Standards Component • New Construction Potential Included in the Summary Potential Study

15. Strategy Assessment for 2006 – RNC program • Initial assessment based on the results from the Potential Study • Strategy assessment interviews with Title 24 consultants, architects, builders, turnkey service providers • Evaluate the following strategies for 2006 – Continue the statewide ESNHP as is – Geographically based (coastal vs. inland) requirements for ESNHP – Prescriptive program – rebates for specific measures

16. Strategy Assessment Continued • Each strategy will include the following assessments/ projections: – Measures most likely to be installed to meet the 2005 Title 24 code and to qualify for the program – Projected energy savings and measures costs – Builders’ reaction to the proposed strategy – Potential marketing strategies – Advantages and disadvantages of each strategy

17. Ability To Predict Builder Responses • Strategy assessment includes prediction of which measures builders most likely to install to meet new standards. • Predictions were made in advance of the 2001 standards. • Title 24 consultants predictions • Accurate regarding equipment efficiency • Under predicted the incidence of low-e windows • Over predicted the levels of insulation • Builders had less knowledge than Title 24 consultants.