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Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand (2007/08 – 2012/13)

This report, presented by Patrick Heffer at the 76th IFA Annual Conference in Vienna (May 2008), provides an in-depth analysis of the global agriculture and fertilizer demand outlook from 2007/08 to 2012/13. It covers trends in world cereal production, livestock product consumption, and the evolving dynamics of fertilizer demand, particularly in East and South Asia. The report highlights the implications of biofuels on fertilizer use and the trajectory of crop production growth rates.

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Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand (2007/08 – 2012/13)

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  1. Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand 2007/08– 2012/13 Summary Report Patrick Heffer, IFA 76th IFA Annual Conference 19-21 May 2008, Vienna, Austria

  2. Outlook for Biofuels World Ethanol Output (Bg) World Biodiesel Output (Bg) Source: FAPRI

  3. World Cereal Production (Mt) Source: USDA

  4. +0.1% +0.7% 438 Mt 478 Mt 932 Mt +13% -4.8% +8.3% +78% 147 Mt 132 Mt 41 Mt Regional Cereal ProductionChange 2008 vs. 2007 (%) Source: FAO

  5. World Cereal Production and Utilization (Mt) Source: FAO

  6. World Cereal StocksStock-to-Use Ratio Source: FAO + USDA

  7. Crop Prices Relative Price Evolution from 1995 to 2008 Index: January 1995 = 100 Price Prospects Source: ABARE

  8. Livestock Projections Consumption of Livestock Products Meat Production Milk Production Source: FAO

  9. World Fruit and Vegetable ProductionHarvested Area (Mha) Source: FAO

  10. +3.1% p.a. +3.1% N: +3.2%P2O5: +2.8%K2O: +3.0% N: +3.6%P2O5: +2.7%K2O: +2.2% World Fertilizer Demand Forecasts (Mt nutrients) +4.1% 174.7 169.4 194.3 162.7

  11. Evolution of Regional Fertilizer Demand (Mt nutrients) Two thirds of the total increase is expected to occur in East Asia and South Asia together

  12. Estimates of Global Fertilizer Use on Biofuel Crops (Mt nutrients) 4.2% 2.1% 1.9%

  13. Significant Change in Trends

  14. Thank you! www.fertilizer.org

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