Fuel Treatment Trade-Offs Using SIMPPLLE and MAGIS modeling systems

1. Fuel Treatment Trade-Offs Using SIMPPLLE and MAGIS modeling systems Problem: Design and Evaluate Fuel Treatment Alternatives at the Landscape Scale Strategy: Use both stochastic simulation (SIMPPLLE) and optimization (MAGIS) to plan and evaluate fuel treatment options. This approach takes advantage of the strengths of each type of model system and provides analysis that neither can provide alone. MAGIS SIMPPLLE Simulating Vegetative Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales Multiple-Resource Analysis and GeographicInformation System SIMPPLLE is a stochastic simulation model that predicts changes in vegetation patterns over time and space using interrelationships of fire and other natural processes. MAGIS is a decision support system which optimizes land management and transportation-related activities on a spatial and temporal basis by resolving multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives The Modeling Approach The Modeling Approach Schedule of Treatments in Time and Space Schedule of Treatments in Time and Space Step 2: Develop Fuel Treatment Scenarios with MAGIS MAGIS MAGIS SIMPPLLE SIMPPLLE MAGIS is used to develop four fuel treatment scenarios for the landscape. Candidate treatments for National Forest stands outside the designated Wilderness included broadcast burning, mechanical thinning followed by broadcast burning, precommercial thinning, and several types of commercial timber harvest. Inside the Wilderness area, the candidate treatments are limited to prescribed burning without mechanical thinning. Location & Severity of Disturbance Processes Location & Severity of Disturbance Processes Issues applying to selected scenarios Step 1: Simulate Processes for ‘No Action’ with SIMPPLLE Step 4: Calculate and Compare Overall Effects and Costs SIMPPLLE is used to run 20 stochastic simulations over five decades for the ‘no action’ management alternative with fire suppression. The natural processes modeled are light and severe western spruce budworm, mountain pine beetle in both lodgepole pine and ponderosa pine, root disease, and three intensities of wildfire: light-severity fire, mixed-severity fire, and stand-replacing fire. The frequency of occurrence over five decades for each process is recorded by stand. In the sample problem, all scenarios reduced the acres of stand-replacing fire and low-intensity fire, and accordingly reduced the fire suppression costs over the five decades modeled. However, when the treatment costs and revenues are included, a net savings in cost relative to “no action” is predicted for only Scenarios 2 and 4. Acres of prescribed burning and harvesting by decade. Acres of prescribed burning and harvesting by decade. Discounted Net Cost Including the Treatment Revenues, Treatment Costs, and Fire Suppression Costs Acres of Hiding Cover by Decade from Treatments and Natural Processes Percent Change in Sediment from Current Condition, Including both Treatments and Natural Processes Step 3: Apply MAGIS Fuel Treatment Scenarios in SIMPPLLE to Simulate Processes The four management scenarios developed by MAGIS are imported into SIMPPLLE to model the effect of these treatment schedules on the extent and frequency of natural processes, and on fire suppression costs. Twenty simulations are run for five decades for each scenario. By J. Greg Jones, Jimmie Chew, and Janet Sullivan