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Economic and Revenue Outlook: September 2014

Economic and Revenue Outlook: September 2014. August 27 th , 2014. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Mark McMullen Josh Lehner. Economic Overview. Oregon’s Job Growth Advantage. Regional: The Bigger the Better. Regional: Job Recovery by County. Regional: Central Oregon on the Rise.

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Economic and Revenue Outlook: September 2014

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  1. Economic and Revenue Outlook:September 2014 August 27th, 2014 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Mark McMullen Josh Lehner

  2. Economic Overview

  3. Oregon’s Job Growth Advantage

  4. Regional: The Bigger the Better

  5. Regional: Job Recovery by County

  6. Regional: Central Oregon on the Rise

  7. Migration Flows to Oregon Return

  8. Domestic Net Migration: Oregon’s Comparative Advantage

  9. Domestic Migration Across Time: Deschutes County

  10. Domestic Migration Across Time: Coos County

  11. Outlook: As Good As It Gets?

  12. Revenue Outlook

  13. Forecast Evolution: No More Wiggle Room

  14. Weak Year-End Collections Put the Brakes On Personal Income Taxes

  15. The Tricky Part

  16. Personal Income Tax Forecast$ billions, 4 quarter moving sum 2021-23 -$49.0 2020-21 -$81.1 2017-19 -$70.4 2015-17 -$14.2 2013-15 +$34.8 (million)

  17. Corp Collections Spring to Life

  18. Corporate Excise Tax Forecast

  19. Lottery At Risk

  20. Lottery At Risk

  21. September 2014 General Fund Forecast Summary

  22. Effective Reserves

  23. Forecast ChangesDifference from June forecast, $ millions 23

  24. 10-Year Forecast 24

  25. Biennial Revenue Growth 25

  26. For More Information Standard Contact: 155 Cottage Street NE Salem, OR 97301 (503) 378-3405 oea.info@state.or.us www.oregon.gov/das/oea Social Media: www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis

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