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Randomized Evaluation: Do s and Don’t s

Randomized Evaluation: Do s and Don’t s. An example from Peru Tania Alfonso Training Director, IPA. Outline. Design Implementation Analysis. Outline. Design Research question Power Randomization Sampling Implementation Analysis. Research question.

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Randomized Evaluation: Do s and Don’t s

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  1. Randomized Evaluation: Dos and Don’ts An example from Peru Tania Alfonso Training Director, IPA

  2. Outline • Design • Implementation • Analysis

  3. Outline • Design • Research question • Power • Randomization • Sampling • Implementation • Analysis

  4. Research question • Do make sure the research question is policy relevant • Do make sure your indicators are answering your research question

  5. Power • Don’t conduct an under-powered evaluation • What does it mean to be under-powered? • Sample size and power

  6. Power • Do power calculations first • Effect size • Sample size • Getting data • (What will take-up be?)

  7. Power • Do cluster your standard errors when doing power calculations • Bad examples (two districts, 10,000 people)

  8. Randomization • Do Ensure balance • Stratification • Re-randomizing • Costs and benefits

  9. Sampling • Do make sure your sampling frame is as close to your target population as possible • Effect size

  10. Outline • Design • Implementation • Measurement • Monitoring • Attrition • Analysis

  11. Measurement • Don’t collect data differently for treatment and control groups • Introducing bias

  12. Measurement • Don’t use as your primary indicator something that may change with the intervention, even when the outcome does not

  13. Monitoring • Do monitor your intervention to ensure the treatment groups are receiving the treatment, and control groups are not • Contamination

  14. Monitoring • Do collect process indicators to unpack the black box

  15. Attrition • Do whatever it takes to minimize attrition • Attrition bias

  16. Outline • Design • Implementation • Analysis • Treatment integrity • Attrition • Final outcomes • Subgroup analyses • Covariates

  17. Integrity of design“Once in treatment, always in treatment” • Don’t switch treatment or control status, based on compliance • Intention to Treat • Treatment on Treated

  18. Attrition“Once in sample, always in sample” • Do not ignore “attritors” • Attrition bias

  19. Attrition • Don’t relax just because rates of attrition are the same in treatment and control groups • How do we test • How do we know

  20. Final outcomes • Don’t run regressions on 20 different outcomes and only report on 1 or 2 “significant impacts” • Do report on all outcomes

  21. Sub-group analysis • Don’t run regressions on 20 different subgroups and only report on 1 or 2 “significant impacts”

  22. Covariates • Do specify the regression(s) you plan to run beforehand • Do include covariates that you stratified on and those helpful for absorbing variance.

  23. External Validity • Do be modest about the external validity of your results • Consider the context (needs assessment) • Consider the process (process evaluation)

  24. Cost effectiveness • Do have listened to Iqbal’s lecture yesterday • Not sure if he is presenting or covered this…just a guess…

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