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SREF Applications at AWC. Dr. Steverino Silberberg Aviation Weather Center May 13, 2008 4 th Ensemble Users Workshop. Aviation SREF Algorithms. AWC- developed Externally-developed RUC-based deterministic/ensemble guidance icing (CIP, FIP), turb (GTG), RUC conv prob Collaboration

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sref applications at awc

SREF Applications at AWC

Dr. Steverino Silberberg

Aviation Weather Center

May 13, 2008

4th Ensemble Users Workshop

aviation sref algorithms
Aviation SREF Algorithms
  • AWC-developed
  • Externally-developed
    • RUC-based deterministic/ensemble guidance
      • icing (CIP, FIP), turb (GTG), RUC conv prob
  • Collaboration
    • AWC-EMC (Binbin Zhou, Jun Du)
    • AWC-SPC (David Bright)
    • AWC-GSD (RUCsters: Stan Benjamin, Steve Weygandt)
aviation specific sref guidance
Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance
  • Flight Restriction (Ceiling/Visibility)
    • Ceiling (4500’, 3000’, 2000’, 1000’, 500’, <500’, mean, cloud top)
    • Visibility (5, 3, 1, 0.5 st mi)
    • VFR (>3000’ and > 5 st mi)
    • MVFR (1000’<ceiling3000’; 3 vis5 st mi)
    • IFR (500’ceiling<1000’; 1vis<3 st mi)
    • LIFR (<500’ and/or <1 st mi)
aviation specific sref guidance1
Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance
  • Cloud Amount
    • Total mean
    • Max mean
    • Min mean
    • Clear prob
    • Scattered prob
    • Broken prob
    • Overcast prob
aviation specific sref guidance2
Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance
  • 10 m wind
    • Speed & direction mean
    • > 10, 20, 30 kt prob
  • Low-level wind shear (lowest 2000’ agl)
    • Sfc – 2000’ mean
    • Severe prob
aviation specific sref guidance3
Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance
  • Convective Cloud
    • Mean and spread
    • Severe prob
  • RUC Convective Probability
  • Jet Stream
    • 4500’; 18,000’; 34,000’
  • Icing Probability
    • FL000, 030, 060, 090, 120, 150, 180, 240
aviation specific sref guidance4
Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance
  • Turbulence probability
    • Light-moderate, moderate, severe
    • FL180 - 420
  • Tropopause height/temp
  • Freezing level height
  • Precipitation type
  • Fog occurrence
aviation sref dataflow
Aviation SREF Dataflow
  • NAWIPS:
    • Individual ensemble members only
    • Would like Aviation SREF fields added to mean, prob, and spread GEMPAK files for NAWIPS
aviation sref feedback
Aviation SREF Feedback
  • Reduce/access/calibrate uncertainty
  • Reduce/represent model error
  • Provide distribution characteristics, etc.
  • Algorithm enhancements, changes
  • Hourly output F00-F24
  • Add aviation-specific guidance to global ensemble
  • Add mountain obscuration guidance
aviation sref feedback1
Aviation SREF Feedback
  • Application to AWC production & products
    • FAA requires deterministic aviation forecast products – except for probabilistic collaborative convective forecast product (CCFP)
aviation sref verification validation
Aviation SREF Verification/Validation
  • Verification/Validation is difficult
    • PIREPS  difficult to use for turb, icing
  • NCEP FVS works for regular weather not for aviation weather
    • low level wind shear has been verified in FVS
    • adapt FVS to aviation
  • Collaborate with RTVS for aviation verification/validation
summary
Summary
  • Robust aviation-specific SREF guidance
  • SREF used primarily for Cb forecasts
    • FAA requires deterministic forecasts
  • Add aviation SREF fields to mean, spread, prob files in GEMPAK
  • Need to calibrate aviation SREF fields, represent model error
  • Excellent collaboration between AWC and EMC, SPC, and RUC
  • Verification/validation issue:
    • Difficult using PIREPs
    • Collaboration between FVS and RTVS for verification/validation