Pricing Financial Derivatives. Bruno Dupire Bloomberg L.P/NYU AIMS Day 1 Cape Town, February 17, 2011. Addressing Financial Risks. Over the past 20 years, intense development of Derivatives in terms of:. volume underlyings products models users regions. Vanilla Options.

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Pricing Financial Derivatives

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Addressing Financial Risks Over the past 20 years, intense development of Derivatives in terms of: • volume • underlyings • products • models • users • regions

Vanilla Options European Call: Gives the right to buy the underlying at a fixed price (the strike) at some future time (the maturity) European Put: Gives the right to sell the underlying at a fixed strike at some maturity

Risk Management Client has risk exposure Buys a product from a bank to limit its risk Not Enough Too Costly Perfect Hedge Risk Exotic Hedge Vanilla Hedges Client transfers risk to the bank which has the technology to handle it Product fits the risk

OUTLINE Theory - Risk neutral pricing - Stochastic calculus - Pricing methods B) Volatility - Definition and estimation - Volatility modeling - Volatility arbitrage

Warm-up Roulette: A lottery ticket gives: You can buy it or sell it for $60 Is it cheap or expensive?

2 approaches Naïve expectation Replication Argument “as if” priced with other probabilities instead of

Price as discounted expectation Option gives uncertain payoff in the future Premium: known price today Resolve the uncertainty by computing expectation: Transfer future into present by discounting

S t t S Modeling Uncertainty Main ingredients for spot modeling • Many small shocks: Brownian Motion (continuous prices) • A few big shocks: Poisson process (jumps)

Black-Scholes PDE • Black-Scholes assumption • Apply Ito’s formula to Call price C(S,t) • Hedged position is riskless, earns interest rate r • Black-Scholes PDE • No drift!

Option Value P&L Break-even points Delta hedge P&L of a delta hedged option

drift: noise, SD: Black-Scholes Model If instantaneous volatility is constant : Then call prices are given by : No drift in the formula, only the interest rate r due to the hedging argument.

Option pricing with Monte Carlo methods • An option price is the discounted expectation of its payoff: • Sometimes the expectation cannot be computed analytically: • complex product • complex dynamics • Then the integral has to be computed numerically

Computing expectationsbasic example • You play with a biased die • You want to compute the likelihood of getting • Throw the die 10.000 times • Estimate p( ) by the number of over 10.000 runs

Volatility : some definitions Historical volatility : annualized standard deviation of the logreturns; measure of uncertainty/activity Implied volatility : measure of the option price given by the market

Estimates based on High/Low • Commonly available information: open, close, high, low • Captures valuable volatility information • Parkinson estimate: • Garman-Klass estimate:

Move based estimation • Leads to alternative historical vol estimation: = number of crossings of log-price over [0,T]

Black-Scholes Model If instantaneous volatility is constant : Then call prices are given by : No drift in the formula, only the interest rate r due to the hedging argument.

Implied volatility Input of the Black-Scholes formula which makes it fit the market price :

K K K Market Skews Dominating fact since 1987 crash: strong negative skew on Equity Markets Not a general phenomenon Gold: FX: We focus on Equity Markets

Skews • Volatility Skew: slope of implied volatility as a function of Strike • Link with Skewness (asymmetry) of the Risk Neutral density function ?

Market Skew Supply and Demand Th. Skew K Why Volatility Skews? • Market prices governed by • a) Anticipated dynamics (future behavior of volatility or jumps) • b) Supply and Demand • To “ arbitrage” European options, estimate a) to capture risk premium b) • To “arbitrage” (or correctly price) exotics, find Risk Neutral dynamics calibrated to the market

S t t S Modeling Uncertainty Main ingredients for spot modeling • Many small shocks: Brownian Motion (continuous prices) • A few big shocks: Poisson process (jumps)

K 2 mechanisms to produce Skews (1) • To obtain downward sloping implied volatilities • a) Negative link between prices and volatility • Deterministic dependency (Local Volatility Model) • Or negative correlation (Stochastic volatility Model) • b) Downward jumps

A Brief History of Volatility (2) Dupire 1992, arbitrage model which fits term structure of volatility given by log contracts. Dupire 1993, minimal model to fit current volatility surface

A Brief History of Volatility (3) Heston 1993, semi-analytical formulae. Dupire 1996 (UTV), Derman 1997, stochastic volatility model which fits current volatility surface HJM treatment.