impacts of climate change on agro climatic indices in eastern canada
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Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada. Sam Gameda and Andy Bootsma Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa. CGCM1 Mean Temperature Change Summer - JJA 2050s. Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group. CGCM1 Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s.

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impacts of climate change on agro climatic indices in eastern canada

Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada

Sam Gameda and Andy Bootsma

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Ottawa

cgcm1 mean temperature change summer jja 2050s

CGCM1 Mean Temperature ChangeSummer - JJA 2050s

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

cgcm1 precipitation change summer jja 2050s
CGCM1 Precipitation ChangeSummer - JJA 2050s

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

gcms predict increases in climate variables e g temperature precipitation
GCMs Predict Increases in Climate Variables(e.g. Temperature, Precipitation)
  • How will these changes affect Agro-climatic indices?
  • What are the potential impacts on crop production?
slide6
Crop Heat Units (CHU)

Average Crop Heat Units

implications for atlantic canada
Implications for Atlantic Canada

Significant potential for Large-scale:

  • expansion in corn and soybean areas
  • Reduction of areas under small-grain cereals (e.g. barley)
implications for quebec ontario
Implications for Quebec & Ontario
  • Some areas presently marginal or unsuitable for grain corn and soybean production will become suitable for these crops.
  • Areas presently well-suited for grain corn and soybean production will be suited for longer-season hybrids, with potentially higher yields
some considerations
Some Considerations
  • These findings are based on comparisons of current 30-year climate normals (averages) with those from an equivalent future 30-year period
  • Significant changes in variability and extreme events are anticipated under climate change
slide21
Projected 24-h Rainfall Events Averaged over Canada

(Source: CGCM1A - Kharin and Zwiers 2000)

summary
Summary

Likely consequences of climate change on agriculture in Eastern Canada:

  • Significant increases in areas under corn and soybean in Atlantic Canada.
  • Significant increase in yields of corn and soybean in Quebec and Ontario
  • Expected increases in variability and extreme events could have significant impact on seasonal variability and risks to production
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