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Demographic and Enrollment Research Crow’s Nest Institute June 21, 2001 D. Scott Looney Director of External Affairs Cranbrook Schools Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304 slooney@cranbrook.edu. ________. Outline. Importance of Demographic and Enrollment Research RESEARCH: Broad Trends

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  1. Demographic and EnrollmentResearch Crow’s Nest InstituteJune 21, 2001D. Scott LooneyDirector of External AffairsCranbrook SchoolsBloomfield Hills, MI 48304slooney@cranbrook.edu ________

  2. Outline • Importance of Demographic and Enrollment Research • RESEARCH: Broad Trends • Being A Futurist • RESEARCH: Institutionally Specific Demographics • Mapping • Websites for Demographic Research • RESEARCH: Institutional Enrollment Patterns • Benchmarking • NAIS Stats Online (offline demo)

  3. Teenagers in the United States 11,000,000 20% who live in Midwest 2,200,000 25% who would consider leaving home 550,000 Demographic Research 4% who can afford boarding 22,000 25% who are Strong Enough Students 5,500 Inquiries & Leads 1,084 Interviews / Visits 322 Applicants 284 Enrollment/Retention Research Accepts 146 94 Enrolled 69 Alumni

  4. The Importance of Being a Futurist • Futurists are not in the business of predicting the future…the future is quite unpredictable. • Futurists suggest what is possible in the future. • By analyzing current trends the range of possible future outcomes can be reasonably estimated. • By knowing what the range of future outcome might be, and what factors affect those outcome, people are better able to chose among alternative paths. • Trend analysis is simple…A,B,A ….then B? • Multiple variable trend analysis is very complex (due to compounding and unintended consequences) World Futures Society

  5. The unintended effects of new technologies World Futures Society

  6. Broad Trends Years to Attain 25% Market Share

  7. Cranbrook Schools Enrollment 1988 - 1998 vs.Gross Domestic Product* in 1992 constant dollars andvs. Population of School Age Children* in the U.S. Recession ? Recession & Low Population *School Age Children Population and GDP indexed to same range as Cranbrook Enrollment

  8. Age 27 Age 11 Number of Births (in thousands) in the United States 1909 - 1994 American Demographics, 1997 Age

  9. U.S. Teen Population (in millions) ages 12-19 “What number do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two Children More than Two 1976 1986 1996 1976 1986 1996 50% 50% 55% 33% 37% 29% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 +9% +7% +3%

  10. Suburbs Gain(percent of people living in central cities, suburbs and non-metropolitan areas, 1950 and 1998)

  11. “Some people say that because of past discrimination, blacks should be given preference in hiring and promotion. Others say that such preference is wrong because it discriminates against whites. Are you for or against preferential hiring and promotion of blacks? For: 15% Against: 77% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 Percent distribution of births by race 1995 - 2050 “Which law would you vote for? 1) A homeowner can decide for himself whom to sell his house to, even if he prefers not to sell to blacks. 2) A homeowner cannot refuse to sell to someone because of their race or color.” Up to Owner (1)Can’t Refuse (2) 1976 62% 34% 1986 47% 51% 1996 29% 67% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997

  12. Percent of Household with Incomes of $100,000 or more, 1980-1997(in 1997 dollars) • In 1996, 67% of Americans agreed with the statement: “Both the husband and the wife should contribute to the household income.” • In 1986, only 48% felt this way. • General Social Survey • National Opinion Research Center • University of Chicago, 1997 American Demographics, Jan. 1999

  13. How much respect and confidence do you have in the Public schools? Gallup Organization

  14. Enrollment Growth N.A.I.S. vs. Public and Parochial NAIS Statistics 1997, Vol.1

  15. Growth in Charter Schools Center for Education Reform

  16. Institutional Demographic Research

  17. You are a new admission director of a school and need to understand where, and to what degree, you should invest your recruitment budget and staff energies? Your school is considering expanding enrollment and the question has been posed to you…is this new larger capacity sustainable? You are adding a significant program to your school (adding a lower school, an after care program, a summer camp, etc.). Your Board is considering changing the tuition in a significant way. You are the development director and have been asked by the board to gear up for a capital campaign. You are the business manager and have been asked to come up with an auxiliary services plan which will bring in additional revenue for the school. Which of the potential new services will be most appealing to the marketplace? Your school is launching a strategic plan. The local economy (or demography, or sociography) appears to be shifting, but you are uncertain as to the extent or the meaning of this shift? When do you need to do demographic research? To know when to time your career change out of the admission profession

  18. A Method (certainly not the only method)To Produce Useful Demographic Research • Gather data on the location of current constituencies • Gather data on shifts in population or characteristics of current constituencies • Map out the geography of current constituencies • Examine the key demographic and economic data within the specific areas suggested by the location of current constituents. • Indentify specific markets and your purpose for market identification.

  19. Targeting Organizations are not able to serve whole markets effectively. The organization is wise to choose a segment or segments to serve and differentiate its marketing programs for those different markets. What is it that makes groups within the target market different from one another? What is it that each of these target groups (or organizations or individuals) wants? Each target group has a special influence on the institution’s ability to operate in the most effective manner. Markets are: 1. Identifiable 2. Homogeneous 3. Measurable 4. Reachable

  20. Targeting Using this procedure, a slice of the segmentation pie for a high price/high value independent college preparatory school located in an affluent area of growing young families opening a new K-5 division might look like this: 1. Isolate Families with school-age children 2. Segment Families with school-age children who live in gated communities in geographic target market areas 3. Break down into targets Families with school-age children who live in gated communities in target geographic areas and are acquainted with a trustee, alumnus, parent of alum, or current parent 4. Develop strategies Direct marketing strategies based on referrals to reach and relationship-building events such as neighborhood coffees, one- on-one conversations, small group presentations

  21. New Marketing Strategies Market Development (Current product into a New market) (Diversification) New product into a new market Markets Market Penetration (Present Product deeper Into present market) Product Development (New product into existing Markets) Present New Products

  22. 2000 1996 1991 1 Yarmouth 40 Yarmouth 40 Yarmouth 21 2 Cumberland 19 Cumberland 25 Cumberland 17 3 Portland 17 Portland 16 Brunswick 16 4 Freeport 15 Raymond 14 Freeport 10 5 Falmouth 13 Brunswick 14 South Portland 9 6 Cumberland Foreside 10 Cumberland Foreside 11 Falmouth 7 7 Raymond 10 Falmouth 10 Scarborough 7 8 Brunswick 9 Cape Elisabeth 10 Portland 6 9 Auburn 6 Freeport 7 Raymond 6 10 North Yarmouth 6 Auburn 7 Gray 6 11 Cape Elisabeth 5 North Yarmouth 7 Lisbon Falls 6 12 Pownal 5 Scarborough 6 Cape Elisabeth 5 13 Gray 4 Topsham 6 Auburn 5 14 Scarborough 4 Bath 5 Westbrook 5 15 South Freeport 4 Woolwich 5 Cumberland Foreside 4 16 Topsham 4 Pownal 4 Topsham 4 17 Bath 3 Gray 4 Bath 4 18 Harpswell 3 South Portland 3 New Gloucester 4 19 South Portland 3 Richmond 3 Gorham 4 20 Durham 2 South Harpswell 3 Windham 4 Student Enrollment Patterns, 2000, 1996 and 1991 Rank

  23. 1999 Population 1990 Population Change in # Change in Percent Bowdoin 3073 2207 866 39% North Yarmouth 2669 1996 673 34% Waldoboro 5929 4625 1304 28% Arrowsic 628 498 130 26% Scarborough 15130 12504 2626 21% Durham 3259 2740 519 19% West Bath 1942 1655 287 17% Gorham 13741 11720 2021 17% New Gloucester 4518 3878 640 17% Bowdoinham 2527 2190 337 15% Falmouth 8817 7681 1136 15% Standish 8611 7532 1079 14% Gray 6692 5858 834 14% Cumberland 6875 6103 772 13% Windham 14767 13148 1619 12% Woolwich 2857 2569 288 11% Raymond 3751 3410 341 10% Freeport 7657 6974 683 10% Population Change For Communities in Maine 1990 to 1999 In Rank Order Source: www.census.gov

  24. Mapping Software Demo • How to know where all your constituents are located in 30 minutes or less. • Microsoft Streets and Trips 2001

  25. Missouri Counties, Population Changes 1990 to 1999 US Census Bureau Homepage

  26. National Population Trends and Forecasts State Population Trends and Forecasts Zipcode specific population trends Public Opinion Polls Geographic Mobility School Enrollment and Forecasts Educational Attainment Marital Status and Living Arrangements Child Care Arrangements Labor Force and Occupation Age Distributions Family Income The Black Population The Hispanic Population The Asian / Pacific Islander Population Property Ownership Consumer Spending Habits Wealth Transfers Information Readily Available on the Web

  27. Average and Median Household Incomes for Cranbrook’s Top Ten Day Student Communities vs. Michigan and U.S. norms.

  28. Average and Median Household Incomes for Doe Academy’s Top Twelve Student Communities vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. norms.

  29. Cranbrook Doe Academy

  30. Demographic Resources on the Net • United States Census Bureau homepage (www.census.gov) the entire census is available and easy to navigate with “clickable” states and county maps. New 2000 Census data now is general population and ethnicity. Can map down to the census tract level. • Fed Stats(www.fedstat.gov) all public statistics from every government agency is available, but not the most user friendly site. • University of Texas - Austin(www.lib.utexas.edu/Libs/PCL/Statistics.html) List of nearly every possible link of publicly available demographic data. • “The Right Site - Easy Analytic Software” homepage.(www.easidemographics.com) offers up to 10 free customized reports, although only 1990 data. • American Demographics Webpage: (http://www.demographic.com) many of their great articles are available. • EconData (www.econdata.net)Has great “top ten” list of economic data links. • Economic Information Systems(www.econ-line.com)Very user friendly site with good economic data. • CASI Marketing Systems(www.demographics.caci.com/free_menu.html)Very detailed data of any zipcode, using the ACORN system of neighborhood profiling. Easy to use site. • GeoStat: Geospatial& Statistical Data Center-University of Virginia Library(fisher.lib.virginia.edu/)Incredibly detailed and graphical data. Searchable in nearly every conceivable manner. Great site for highly detailed and technical research, but not for a rookie researcher or technological novice. • FDIC Regional Economic Conditions (RECON) site. (http://www2.fdic.gov/recon/) A great site for economic forecasts.

  31. U.S. Census – American Fact Finder

  32. American FactFinder: Reference Maps

  33. Reference Maps, Census Blocks

  34. Reference Maps, Block Level

  35. U.S. Census – American Fact Finder

  36. U.S. Census – American Fact Finder, Theme Maps

  37. Theme Maps, Select Geography

  38. Theme Maps, County Level

  39. Theme Maps: Select Census Tracts

  40. Theme maps, Census Tract Level

  41. Zoom in on Specific Areas

  42. Identify Specific Census Tracts

  43. Isolate Census Blocks

  44. Isolate Census Blocks, Zoom In

  45. FEDSTATS (www.fedstats.gov)

  46. FEDSTATS (www.fedstats.gov)

  47. FEDSTATS (www.fedstats.gov)

  48. FEDSTATS (www.fedstats.gov)

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