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The ESA Space Weather Pilot Project Status in November 2005

The ESA Space Weather Pilot Project Status in November 2005. A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly Space Environments and Effects Analysis Section, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands C. de Matos and F. Ongaro EUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris. Historical Background 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather.

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The ESA Space Weather Pilot Project Status in November 2005

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  1. The ESA Space Weather Pilot ProjectStatus in November 2005 A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly Space Environments and Effects Analysis Section, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands C. de Matos and F. Ongaro EUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris

  2. Historical Background 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather. 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe. 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop. 1999-2001: ESA feasibility study on a Space Weather Programme. 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team. 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management board =>Rejected (Quantification of value of service for sustainability and need more scientific basis). 2001: Start preparation of ESA-PP, COST724, and other… 2003: ESA SW pilot-project formally starts. 2003: COST 724 starts. 2005: COST 296 starts.

  3. Where we stand now in Nov 2005 Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296, COST724). Coordinated service investigation/evaluation in Europe (To end: April 2004). Options for next step: - NoC for spacecraft effects - ERA-net for science - overall coordinations????

  4. Coordinated Service Investigation Space Weather European Network (SWENET): Network of 26 service development activities (SDAs): 16 ESA co-funded SDA applications activities began on 1st April 2003 + 10 independently funded activities. Continuously increasing... Common support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling. Represents ~5 M€ investment incl. 2 M € from ESA GSP and rest from other ESA prog., national agencies, private investments,.... Independent benefit assessment is establishing the economic and other benefits of the services (Contract with SEA). Interaction with EC – Ongoing (cf COST, EUCORES, FP6). ESA participation to ISES (International Space Environment Services- under IUGG).

  5. SWENET as a sample for study Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or developers from 9 member states. Broad community of users (incl. military). About 90% of the pilot project activities addressed three main types of effects which are: External geomagnetic field Ionospheric perturbations of radio signal (comms, nav). Direct space environment effects on spacecraft.

  6. External geomagnetism in Europe Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military. SW Service: ~1-3 M€; ground based magnetometers + ACE. 10 Y Market trend: remains of same order. Space advantage: not needed for ground effects, speculative for global scale and/or forecast, major for Solar wind. => Case for a SW monitor?

  7. Ionospheric effect on radio signal in Europe Users: HF users (airlines, military and civilian security applications) and GPS single frequency (~all) and dual frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military, off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport approach). SW Service: ~10 M€/Y, Ionosonde, dual frequency networks. 10 Y Market Trend: significant growth (Galileo, +down stream growth). Space advantage: global coverage, (possibly) forecast. => Case for a LEO constellation?

  8. Direct effects on space systems in Europe Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned space flight. SW Service: ~10 M€/Y; using US NOAA, NASA data. 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (new techno, manned space flight). Space advantage: major (no serious alternative). => Case for monitoring in critical regions?

  9. Space Infrastructure Options

  10. Discussion of space elements options Option 0: No change User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case basis and with difficulties). Cost: ~1-5 M € /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M€ /Y (for non-ESA). Market and related R&D: non space related market durably disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).

  11. Discussion of options Option 1: Hitchhikers on planned missions User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage. Cost: ~10 M€ /Y (for ESA) . Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and Nav. via a programme or an inter-directorate activity; rapid improvement expected upstream and downstream.

  12. Discussion of options Option 2: Hitchhikers + dedicated spacecraft User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and forecasting capabilities. Cost: ~200 M€/5 Y (through ESA). Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g. like Meteosat or GMES); improvement expected.

  13. Conclusion SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry). Market now within 10-100 M €/Y in Europe and rely on US or ground based data. Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space flight). Various space elements options are possible with investment commensurate with market size. Refinement of market scenarios and cost benefit analysis is in progress (contract with SEA). Possible undertaking for space elements need to be discussed after ESA council in December (relevant to next council in 2007-2008). S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal). Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296. Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E-STAR (TBC) and a possible ERA-Net. Maintenance of overall coordinating structures (SWWT & SWENET) is under discussion (Lefeuvre proposal to ESA).

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