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The link between appraisal and strategic models

The link between appraisal and strategic models

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The link between appraisal and strategic models

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  1. The link between appraisal and strategic models Tony May and Simon Shepherd (ITS)

  2. Project F Objectives • Enhance existing predictive transport and land use models • Identify those policy instruments which could most usefully be incorporated into existing models and develop and test ways of doing so • Enhance existing sketch planning models so that they can be used more effectively and interactively by a wider range of stakeholders • Develop our sketch planning models and network management design tools as pilot strategy generation tools

  3. Ranking of importance*satisfaction [1]Note: The neutral score is 0.3175. Higher scores indicate a barrier. Score 1.0 would indicate Very important and not at all satisfied for all respondents.

  4. Case Studies • MARS – strategic model – Leeds • SATURN Various case studies (York Shrewsbury, Cambridge + theoretical) • PT-SATURN – Harrogate • STM – Strathclyde • STEER – York • To be presented at a workshop on July 4th

  5. MARS in outline • A land use – transport interaction model • Reflecting year on year changes over a (say) 30 year period • With a simplified representation of spatial structure and networks • And with behavioural responses linked to a constant time budget • Using Causal Loop Diagrams • Designed to assess broad strategies interactively • Able to complete a 30 year strategy test within a minute

  6. CLD for the transport model – commute trips by car in MARS

  7. MARS - completed • Representation of increased parking search time due to parking capacity • Over crowding on public transport • Quality factors for bus corridors • Congestion added to the off-peak • Heavy rail model incorporated for urban stations in Leeds

  8. MARS - planned • Add awareness campaigns as a policy instrument • Add in population cohort approach • Develop “flight simulator” front-end • Link to Animap facility • Test with Leeds • Hold general workshop on MARS for all Local Authorities (November 2007)

  9. Links to appraisal • Designed to output an agreed set of indicators • Outcome indicators (e.g. CO2) • Intermediate outcome indicators (e.g. by mode) • Based on those developed in Project C • Able to incorporate CBA or MCA objective functions • Used elsewhere to identify optimal strategies for a given set of objectives

  10. MARS Output GIS (1)

  11. MARS Output GIS (2) – example for future use AniMap interactive displays animated spatio-temporal information with open-source software and open standards (Web server, PHP, MySQL, Internet Explorer, XML_SVG). „