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Economic Modeling and Policy Analysis: Labor Supply and Demand Forecasting in St. Louis

Conducting in-depth analysis of labor supply and demand, this project utilizes cutting-edge econometric modeling to project future employment trends. Collaborating with various partners and conducting policy simulations, it aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. By estimating initial models and refining projections, it serves as a recognized leader in economic forecasting and policy assessment.

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Economic Modeling and Policy Analysis: Labor Supply and Demand Forecasting in St. Louis

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  1. St. Louis MSA Employment Outlook Methods and Background

  2. LEMA Objectives • Estimate Employment (Labor Demand & Wages • Provide Baseline Projections • Conduct Policy Simulations & Assess Impacts • Education model

  3. FAPRI-Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute • Agricultural Baselines and Policy Simulations for the U.S. Congress & Department of Agriculture as well as European Union Commission • Formal Partnerships With Ireland, Africa, and the United Nations • Recognized Leader in Econometric Modeling and Policy Analysis • USDA ‘Secretary’s’ Award • American Agricultural Economics Assoc. Policy Award

  4. Labor Supply & Demand S: Education & Training Now D: Labor Market Demand

  5. Model and Outreach Development • Identify & Collect Data • Conduct Employer Interviews • Refine Model Specification • Initiate Collaboration Between LEMA & MERIC • Estimate Initial Model • Continue Outreach Efforts

  6. Baseline Conferences • Discuss Economic Assumptions • Present Local, State, National Trends • Review Projections • Receive Expert Criticism & Comment • Document & Analyze Feedback • Publish & Distribute Annual Baseline • Conduct Policy Simulations

  7. Steps in Econometric Modeling -- The Never Ending Story Model Specification Data Model Estimation Model Testing & Validation • Application • Baseline projections • Policy simulation

  8. The Policy Simulation Process Baseline Exogenous Values Alternative Policy Variable Values The LEMA Model Baseline Forecast Alternative Forecast Policy Effect = Alternative minus Baseline

  9. The Baseline/Scenario Approach With Assistance Without Assistance

  10. Total Modeled Employment Last 10 years Grew at ~10,600 per year Only 11,000 in Projection

  11. Employment by Category

  12. Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment: SIC 371

  13. Future Course of Action • Labor supply & wage models • Occupational demand and wage models • Policy simulations • Education model

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