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Opportunities for the Future Forest Products Industry. Ron Brown President and Executive Director Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance North Carolina State University Pulp and Paper Foundation Annual Meeting September 12, 2013. Where Will the Paper Industry Be in 10-20 Years? .

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opportunities for the future forest products industry

Opportunities for the Future Forest Products Industry

Ron Brown

President and Executive Director

Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance

North Carolina State University Pulp and Paper Foundation Annual Meeting

September 12, 2013

where will the paper industry be in 10 20 years
Where Will the Paper Industry Be in 10-20 Years?
  • United States: AF&PA

Better Practices, Better Planet

sustainability goals for 2020

  • Canada: FPAC

Vision 2020 – One-third growth by 2020 from product innovations, significant sustainability improvement

  • Europe: CEPI

Roadmap for low-carbon economy

(To impact 2050, must develop new technologies now!)

many projections of the industry s future
Many Projections of the Industry’s Future

Better Practices, Better Planet 2020

AF&PA

Europe:

Unfold the Future

2050 Low-Carbon Roadmap

CEPI

Canada:

Vision 2020

FPAC

Canada:

Bio-Pathways

FPAC

Environmental Vision

Envir Paper Network

Europe:

Horizons – Vision 2030 EU FTP

Future from Fibre

WBCSD

End of Tunnel?

PPI Survey

State of the Pulp Industry

Rod Fisher

Living

Forests

WWF Intl

Facts Trends Vision 2050

WBCSD

Transformations

Sten Nilsson

Growing

the Future

PWC

Europe: Strategic Research Agenda for 2020 EU FTP

Vision 2050:

New Agenda for Business WBCSD

Manufacturing the Future

McKinsey

FPI Tech Roadmap

Agenda 2020

Global Trends 2030

Natl Intelligence Council

consensus a vibrant future industry
Consensus: A Vibrant Future Industry
  • Worldwide demand of traditional paper products grows 1.5% per year average over next 40 years
    • Steady growth in packaging grades
    • Printing and writing grades continue declining to 2030
  • Many opportunities in the emerging biobased economy
    • Forest resource is excellent foundation
    • No competition with food
    • Biobased materials offer value, not competition for fiber
    • Integrate with existing manufacturing
opportunity forest biomaterials in the emerging bioeconomy
Opportunity: Forest Biomaterials in the Emerging Bioeconomy
  • Get the highest possible value from resources – wood, forest residuals, recycled fiber
  • Develop new markets while growing markets for traditional wood and paper products
  • $200 billion a year global market potential (FPAC) $100 billion a year for biobased polymers (Lux)

(U.S. forest products are $200 billion)

    • Green chemicals and biofuels
    • Plastics
    • Lightweight composites
    • Bendable concrete with cellulosic

nanomaterials (example shown)

the bioeconomy requires innovation
The Bioeconomy Requires Innovation

Unfold the Future:

The Forest Fibre Industry

2050 Roadmap to a Low-Carbon Bio-Economy

CEPI, 2011

www.unfoldthefuture.eu

opportunity improved and new products
Opportunity: Improved and New Products
  • Lighter, stronger paper and paperboard
    • Strength from cellulosic nanomaterials
  • Higher-value, specialized papers and packaging
    • Novel optical properties
    • Barrier to vapors, reduced sensitivity to moisture
    • Niche products for population that is aging and more urban
    • Smart packaging
  • New products
    • Flexible electronics (example shown)
    • Clear films from renewables
opportunity wood and fiber
Opportunity: Wood and Fiber
  • Wood is available.
  • Wood removals in 2050 three times current rate.
  • (WWF Living Forests, 2012)
  • Steadily growing demand for wood and paper products
  • Escalation in wood for bioenergy
  • Forest plantations are more productive than natural forests and will become larger portion of global wood supply.
  • Global demand for long-fiber kraft pulp is opportunity for southern U.S.
opportunity sustainable manufacturing
Opportunity: Sustainable Manufacturing
  • Many calls for a sustainable industry
  • Renewable energy – good progress with fuels and CHP
  • More attention needed on mill water and energy demands
    • Concerns about future access to water in some locations
    • Little or no recent progress in water or energy use per ton
    • Envir.
    • Paper
    • Network
    • chart for
    • 2000-08
challenges sustainable manufacturing
Challenges: Sustainable Manufacturing
  • Improving sustainability metrics is difficult without new equipment
  • North American mills mostly are well-optimized and have much old equipment
  • World’s oldest fleet of bleached kraft pulp mills in N. America
  • Best available technologies offer 20-25% reduction in energy use per ton in U.S.
  • High capital investment needed to implement BAT
  • New technologies if developed could give another 20% reduction
challenges sustainable manufacturing1
Challenges: Sustainable Manufacturing
  • Recovered fiber will become larger share of furnish
    • Higher waste recovery rates, lower fiber quality
    • Impacts on strength and mill operations
  • Mills will become host platforms for bioproducts
    • Mill infrastructure is good foundation for producing biomaterials as add-on processes
    • Integrate process systems to reduce energy, water, wastes, capital
    • Opportunity to improve mill sustainability metrics
opportunity marketing industry advantages
Opportunity: Marketing Industry Advantages

Forest products offer many advantages to society

  • Renewable raw material from sustainable forests
  • Recyclable products, high rate of recovery and reuse
  • Renewable energy

The paper industry intends to launch a new marketing program in 2014 – do a better job of telling our story

  • Paper Check-Off (www.papercheckoff.com)
  • USDA-sanctioned fund from producers
  • Organizational activities led by AF&PA
opportunity breakthrough technologies
Opportunity: Breakthrough Technologies

Urgent need for breakthrough technologies to address the opportunities

  • New and improved products
  • More efficient manufacturing
  • Get “a better story to tell”

Start development now to be ready for first installations by 2030 to have large impact in 2050

challenge outlook for innovation is bleak
Challenge: Outlook for Innovation Is Bleak
  • Industry spends less on R&D than competitive industries:
    • R&D % of sales: 0.24% paper, 0.7% textiles, 1.3% plastics
    • Patent intensity: 1.2 paper, 4.1 textiles, 10.7 plastics
    • Lacks capacity for much mid and long-term research
  • Federal R&D spending is available but mostly bypasses our industry.
agenda 2020 a unique voice for the industry
Agenda 2020 – A Unique Voice for the Industry
    • Identifies full set of industry technology needs (2010 Forest Products Industry Technology Roadmap)
  • Drives consensus on R&D priorities
  • Promotes R&D programs funded in part by government
  • Informs government agencies and universities about industry research needs
  • Member-funded 501(c)(3) organization
    • Not a lobbying group
    • Supports and works closely with AF&PA
conclusion pursue the opportunities
Conclusion: Pursue the Opportunities
  • Attractive opportunities exist and need new technologies
  • Forest biomaterials
  • Sustainable manufacturing
  • Improved and new products
  • Best technologies available today are expensive and not sufficient to achieve market potential and sustainability
  • Research on breakthroughs is needed now
  • More money for industry R&D
  • New technologies must be in place by 2030 to have large impact by 2050
thank you
Thank You

For More Information

Ron Brown

President & Executive Director

Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance

ron_brown@agenda2020.org

202-463-2742