2011Report 65- 3rd Quarter Release - Johannesburg 14 November 2011
Introduction: General Up-date: Economic Outlook. Global economic climate remains precariously balanced. Impact of Euro zone “bail-out or bankrupt” debates cause uncertainty within in emerging markets such as ours. 2012 First Glance It’s never been truer that tomorrow will be less like yesterday than ever before! We’re expecting 2012 to be the toughest year in memory. Client budgets are not keeping pace with rate inflation. Media owner discounts are declining generally…”closing gaps”. Media owner audiences are declining and increasingly more fragmented. Landscape is changing rapidly ; 20% of radio listenership via cell phone! The currency for decision making is under threat. Media owners have generally lost the art of selling.
Local Up-date: Media Inflation Up-date Jan– June 2011 While total rate inflation is currently running at 8.7%, print tracks 2% less at 6.7%. Despite this the % performance remains poor and hence the MIW Index is constant at 13%. • B2B index has declined from 10.5% • Community and Weeklies have marginally improved. • Daily Newspapers inflation remains almost 5 time higher than overall MIW inflation despite reduced rate inflation.
Television is becoming more cost efficient due to lowering rates (FTA) and growing performance. Pay TV has marginally higher MIW inflation. Radio. % Performance has slowed (CIW in particular) while rate inflation has held. Still modest MIW index. Cinema. Improving as decline in audience slows while rates drop. Still delivers high MIW inflation.
International Up-date: Print fights back! 2011/12 MPA Fact book launched recently aggressively promotes prints by identifying 10 key facts. Available via free down load or via app. • Ten trends…proven • Magazine audiences getting stronger in the under 35 year group. • Magazines more engaging than any other platform. • Advertising content is considered valuable by readers. • Magazines build reach faster than TV ! • Magazines build trust. • Magazine readers influence others to buy products. • Digital magazines (editions) more effective in prompting purchase. • Magazines more influential in initiating digital search. • Magazine audiences expanding more and faster into the digital arena. • Magazines improve ROI.
Global ad expenditure continues to grow despite stock market turmoil…October 2011 Global ad expenditure is forecast to grow 3.6% in 2011 after a modest slowdown in expenditure growth towards the end of the year Growth forecast for 2012 remains a reassuring 5.3% This picture is consistent with a history of ad market growth after many previous stock market shocks, assuming the world economy does not deteriorate dramatically Developing markets to increase their share of the global ad market from 31.0% in 2010 to 34.9% in 2013 Internet the fastest-growing medium between 2010 and 2013 (14.6% a year) Television to contribute most new ad dollars (46% of total)
Rule Amendments effective 1st July 2011: 1. Addition to the definition of ‘Subscriptions’ – ‘Where combined titles are offered, the individual titles must be available at different prices’. 2. Sales by a Reseller – will be able to be claimed as paid circulation under certain circumstances. 3. Mailed copies of B2B magazines must be posted on or before the 7th of the month following the month of issue. 4. In respect of weekly newspapers, application for exclusion may be made regarding organized stayaways etc., provided the loss exceeds 15% of the average of 2 comparative weeks.
Approach a) Track Print performance against GDP and Retail Sales b) Trend Analysis: YOY c) Compare Category Circulation Composition YOY d) Scatter graph • Evolutionary, familiar but better: • Recognizes state of economy / retail sales. • 4 year category trends. • YOY category composition comparison – to see where the shifts are coming from. • Familiar scatter graph – but with defining titles. Large & Growing Small & declining
Overall Economic Perspective Comment: • Retail sales for the 3 months ended August 2011, reflect an increase of 4.1%, compared to 2010. The largest increase was in ‘Retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear, and leather goods’. • GDP increased by 1.3% in the second quarter. The main contributors were: General Government Services, Finance, Real Estate and Business services. Manufacturing Industry showed the largest decline.
Newspaper Performance Relative to Economic Measures. Comment: • Total newspaper circulation increased by 135,000 copies over the previous quarter, attributable to Free and Weekly newspapers.
Trend Analysis – Total Circulation:Daily Newspapers Comment: The rate of decline has slowed. 72,000 (5.1%) fewer newspapers sold than in the same quarter last year. 24,000 (1.7%) fewer than the previous quarter.
Q.3 – Composition Comparison:Daily Newspapers Comment: • Copy Sales declined by 6%. • Some PMIE above 50% of cover price was replaced by PMIE below 50% of cover price.
Trend Analysis – by language:Daily Newspapers Comment: When compared to the prior year English titles decreased by 7%, and Afrikaans titles by 4.3%. Vernacular titles showed an encouraging increase of 9.3%.
Daily Newspapers ranked by Copy Sales: Comment: • 10 titles decreased circulation, while 4 increased circulation, and 4 remained static. • There has been no change in the ranking.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis:Daily Newspapers Comment: • Isolezwe (9.3) and Beeld (4.7%) reflected the largest increases. • Daily News suffered the largest percentage decline (-14.7%) while Daily Sun suffered the largest numerical decline (-36,700 copies).
Trend Analysis – Total Circulation:Weekly Newspapers Comment: • Total circulation reflects a dramatic increase of 20%, improving the increase reflected in the previous quarter.
Q.3 – Composition Comparison:Weekly Newspapers Comment: • Copy Sales increased by a significant 18.7%, amounting to 88,000 copies!
Weekly Newspapers ranked by Copy Sales: Comment: • The overall increase in circulation was directly attributable to the significant increase in circulation of the 2 largest titles.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis:Weekly Newspapers Comment: • Soccer Laduma grew a substantial 30.7%, while Ilanga (16.5%) and Mail and Guardian (10.8%) grew significantly. • Umafrika declined by 23.4%
Trend Analysis – Total Circulation:Weekend Newspapers Comment: • Circulation declined by 3.2% (70,000 copies) over the prior year, and by 2% (44,000) over the previous quarter. • 17 titles declined, 4 increased, and 2 remained static.
Q.3 – Composition:Weekend Newspapers Comment: Copy sales declined by 4% (68,000 copies). Encouragingly, Subscriptions increased by 7% (29,000 copies). Both PMIE and Third Party Bulk sales declined.
Trend Analysis – by language:Weekend Newspapers Comment: • English titles declined by 4.6% (70,000 copies), while Afrikaans titles declined by 3% (16,000 copies) • Vernacular titles increased by 10.8% (16,000 copies).
Weekend Newspapers ranked by Copy Sales: Comment: • Of the 6 largest titles only IlangaLangesonto showed growth. • There has been no change in the ranking.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis:Weekend Newspapers Comment: • IsilezwengeSonto grew a significant 15.8%, while Beeld (6.6%) and IlangaLangesonto (6.5%) showed creditable increases. • Weekend Argus (-10.7%) and Pretoria News (-10%) showed the largest declines.
Trend Analysis – Total Circulation:Community Newspapers Comment: • Stable performance with little growth.
Trend Analysis – Total Circulation:Free Newspapers Comment: • Whilst total circulation increased by 10.8% (561,000 copies) because of new entrants, real circulation increased by 1.6% (83,000 copies).
Q.3 – Composition Comparison:Hybrid Newspapers Comment: • The Times grew paid circulation significantly, both Copy Sales (172%, 24,400 copies) and Subscriptions (37.6%, 27,764 copies).
Magazine Performance Relative to Economic Measures. Comment: • Total circulation declined significantly, resulting from the loss of 2 titles from the ABC data. • Vuk’uzenzele, a free government title resigned, prior to converting to a newspaper. • Vodaworld magazine did not publish during the year, although has since restarted under a new publisher.
Trend Analysis – Total Circulation:Consumer Magazines Comment: • Whilst total circulation increased by 7.3% because of new entrants, real circulation declined by 3.7% (215,000 copies).
Q.3 – Composition:Consumer Magazines Comment: • Whilst Copy Sales remained static, Subscriptions declined a disappointing 16%! • Free circulation increased by 61.5% , mainly because of new free circulating titles.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • The category declined by 5.5%. • The Thinker increased by 42%, albeit off a small base and Succeed Magazine increased by 6%. • Noseweek (-13%) reflected the largest decline.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: Comment: • Copy Sales declined by 13%. • 3rd Party Bulk Sales declined by 50%!
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • Of the quarterly reporting titles, Drum (8.6%) and Reader’s Digest (5.2%) showed the largest increases. • Huisgenoot (-5%) reflected the largest decline.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: Comment: • Subscriptions declined a disappointing 50%!
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • House & Leisure (11.1%) and Tuis/Home (9.4%) reflected the largest increases. • Top Billing (-38%) and SA Garden/SA Tuin Paleis (-26%) showed the largest declines.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: Comment: • Copy Sales (6.2%) and Free Circulation (53%) increased because of new entrants. • Subscriptions declined a disappointing 19%.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • Popular Mechanics increased by 8.2%. • FHM (-23%) and Tech-Smart Magazine (-16%) showed the largest declines.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: Comment: • Free circulation declined by 13%.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • Cars in Action grew a significant 48.4%! • Auto Trader (-10.7%) showed the largest decline.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: • Comment: • Copy Sales grew by 4.5%. However, Subscriptions fell by 7%.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • Mamas & Papas (42%!) showed the largest increase. • Living and Loving (-28%) and Your Baby (-20%) reflected the largest declines.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: Comment: • Copy Sales declined by 16%. Subscriptions increased by 20% , albeit off a small base. • Free circulation increased by 21%, because of a new free circulating title.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • Amakhosi (30.7%) showed the largest increase. • Golf Digest declined by 67% because of the loss of World of Golf contract. Modern Athlete declined by 28.6%.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: Comment: • Copy Sales increased by 9.9%. • Subscriptions fell by 31% because of the previously mentioned reason.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • SA country Life grew by 5%, while Getaway declined by 8%.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: Comment: • Copy Sales and Free circulation increased because of new entrants.
Q.3 – Year on Year Analysis Comment: • Kuier grew by 98%! (off the chart) – all in copy sales! • O, the Oprah Magazine (-23%), Fairlady (-19%) and Your Family (-18%) reflected the largest declines.
Q.3 – Circulation Composition: Comment: • Copy Sales declined by 4%, while Subscriptions remained static.