Operational Monitoring at CPC

1. Operational Applications of Satellite Products in Climate Monitoring at NOAA CPC Pingping Xiewith contributions fromD. DeWitt, M. Charles, M. Chelliah, M. Chen, R. Joyce, C. Long, K. Mo, L. Ren, M. Rosencrans, W. Shi, W. Thiaw, S. Wu, L. Xu, Y. Xue, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

2. Operational Monitoring at CPC • Monitoring of Circulation, Climate Variability, and Boundary Conditions • General circulations, tropical convection • ENSO, MJO, Teleconnections, (AO, NAO, PNA, AAO).. • Ocean, land (soil moisture) • Monitoring of Climate Phenomena and Extremes • Monsoons, hurricanes, Arctic Sea Ice, • Drought, flooding , … • Monitoring of Regional Climate Conditions • United States • Africa, South Asia …

3. Satellite Products are Critical for Climate Monitoring • Primary Sources of Information for Climate Monitoring • Reanalyses / Climate Model Simulations • Satellite-based products • Conventional observations • Satellite Products of Particular Importance to Climate • Sea Surface Temperature (SST) • Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) • Precipitation • Sea Surface Height (SSH) • Soil moisture • Atmospheric temperature / moisture • …

4. Satellite Products Developed / Integrated at CPC • OLR • Integrated from NESDIS AVHRR Level 2 OLR • Monthly / pentad from 1979 • 2.5olat/lon over the entire globe • Precipitation • CMAP / CAMS-OPI / GPCP pentad • monthly / pentad from 1979 • 2.5olat/lon over the entire globe • CMORPH • Bias corrected, reprocessed • 30-min interval from 1998 • 8kmx8km over the globe from 60oS to 60oN • Generated at 2 hours, 12 hours, and ~3 months latencies • Gauge-CMORPH Blended • Daily from 1998 • 0.25olat/lon over the entire global land • Gauge – OLR Blended (experimental) • Daily from 1979 • 0.25olat/lon over the entire global land

5. Examples of Satellite Applications in Climate Monitoring • ENSO • MJO • Global Precipitation • Drought • Global Monsoons • International Desks • Climate anomaly attribution • Stratosphere monitoring (ozone and UV index)

6. ENSO Monitoring [1] • In situ – satellite blended SST analysis monitors the evolution of ENSO

7. ENSO Monitoring [2] • Satellite observed OLR captures tropical convection and its variations

8. MJO Monitoring • Satellite observed OLR and Global IR data are used at CPC, together with information from other sources, to monitor MJO and associated tropical convections

9. Global Precipitation [1] • Global precipitation is monitored routinely at CPC as a part of the CPC Monthly Review, Monthly Ocean Briefing, Monthly Drought Outlook Discussions, Weekly Monsoon Updates, Global Hazards Outlook and many other operational tasks; • Gauge-based, satellite estimated and gauge-satellite blended products of precipitation are utilized • Most of these products are developed at CPC to meet requirements for climate applications

10. Global Precipitation [2] • CAMS-OPI (streamlined version CMAP) used for CPC Monthly Climate Review • For climate monitoring purposes, anomaly and percentile of precipitation need to be calculated and examined • Requires a long-term time series of homogeneous quality

11. Drought Monitoring [1] • CPC monitors the evolution of droughts and issues outlook of droughts over the United States • Monitoring of the droughts over the United States rely heavily on gauge-based analysis of precipitation which presents high quality due to dense station network there and extended data record back to 1948 • CPC also monitors droughts over the global land, using the experimental gauge – OLR blended analysis of daily precipitation as an important source of information • In addition to the precipitation, soil moisture, vegetable index, and sub-surface water et al are also examined

12. Drought Monitoring [2] • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is computed from total precipitation based on statistical parameters defined from historical data • Example of SPI used for the monitoring of drought over US • The SPI here is derived from CPC daily gauge analysis

13. Drought Monitoring [3] • For global applications, an experimental product, gauge – OLR blended analysis of daily precipitation is used to compute the SPI • The gauge – OLR blended analysis combines the strength of the daily / monthly gauge analyses, CMORPH, and OLR.

14. Drought Monitoring [4] • Satellite-derived Shallow Groundwater Drought Indicator, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Health Index are used in the CPC drought monitoring AVHRR GRACE VIIRS Soil Moisture

15. Global Monsoons Monitoring [1] • CPC issues Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems and sends out summary PPTs to interested users • Satellite-based products, including SST, OLR, precipitation, IR cloud images et al, are heavily used together with conventional observations and reanalyses • Gauge-based, satellite estimated and gauge-satellite blended products of precipitation are utilized • CPC Monsoon Monitoring Web Site

16. Global Monsoons Monitoring [2] • Asian – Australian Monsoon is one of the targets • Precipitation is expressed as departure from as well as percentage of normal

17. CPC International Desk [1] • CPC International Desks (leader: Dr. Wassila Thiaw), together with several other tasks, performs routine monitoring of weather and climate for several international regions including Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, Central America and Caribbean, and disseminate climate forecast / monitoring information to associated partners. • Satellite data used to perform monitoring there including: • CPC Rainfall Estimation (RFE) Version 2 (a daily version of CMAP) • CPC Full-resolution GEO IR TBB data • OLR • SST • CPC International Desks Web Site

18. CPC International Desk [2] • Sample RFE2 10-day Africa precip for 11-20 Sept. 2017 • Web Site for Africa Weather and Climate

19. CPC International Desk [3] • Sample CMORPH 10-day SE Asia precip for 11-20 Sept. 2017 • Web Site for SE Asia Weather and Climate

20. Forecasts Verifications [1] • Observed precipitation is used to verify and quantify the skills of various CPC climate forecasts • Satellite precipitation is also used, together with the gauge-based analysis, for this application; • An ongoing activity is to use gauge analysis and CMORPH satellite estimates to verify CPC Week 2 Precipitation Forecasts • For application to the Week 2 Precipitation Forecasts, a whole set of precipitation climo, including mean as well as percentiles needs to be constructed using long-term observations

21. Forecasts Verifications [2] • Sample 7-day precipitation climo (99 percentile) over the global land • Work is underway to define the climo over ocean using CMORPH data

22. Attribution of Climate Anomalies • CPC conducts diagnostic studies of the climate anomalies observed over recent period and once a month summarize the diagnostic results for the anomalies of the past three months • CMAP precipitation used as the ‘truth’ for global precipitation and its anomaly

23. Prec positive anomalies over Maritime Continent, which were surrounded by negatives over WP and tropical Indian Ocean; • Temp positive anomalies tend to be over most of lands, that is related to the warming trend in SSTs ; • Temp negative anomalies over the W. Euro and the NE NA were corresponding to the centers of z200 negative anomalies;

24. Satellite Observations of Ozone CPC utilizes profile and total column ozone for short term and long term monitoring. CPC has used observations from the SBUV(/2) instruments on NOAA POES since 1978 and continues this long term monitoring with the OMPS instrument on S-NPP and future JPSS satellites. Short term monitoring includes events such as the Antarctic ozone hole. CPC relates the ozone hole size with stratospheric meteorology that dictates the annual size and longevity of the ozone hole. Long term monitoring involves a Climate Data Record of monthly zonal mean total column ozone values from multiple satellites and cohesively combined into one long term data set. From this CDR time series of global ozone anomalies can be generated.

25. UV Index Fcsts from Ozone Observations • The amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the earth’s surface is primarily dependent upon the total column ozone amount. • along with solar zenith angle, surface albedo, elevation, clouds and aerosol optical properties. • Left top is a recent global map of noontime UV Index forecasts. Left bottom is the same UV Index forecast for the CONUS. • NCEP generates UV Index forecasts from Global Forecast System (GFS) model forecast fields. • CPC maintains/upgrades the code to generate the UV Index forecasts. • Satellite observations of Ozone (along with many other satellite observations) are assimilated into the GFS. • Health impacts due to increased UV radiation as a result of ozone depletion warranted the generation of UV Index forecasts. • UV radiation not only affects humans but also agriculture, sea life, and materials.

26. Summary • Satellite-based products are widely used at NOAA/CPC in climate monitoring, climate forecast verifications, and seasonal anomaly attribution; • For climate applications, a data set need to be produced at reasonable time / space resolution to resolve associated phenomena, covering a wide spatial domain and extending for a sufficient long time period (ideally from 1981) with reasonable quantitative homogeneity, and updated on a quasi real-time basis; • A set of climo needs to be constructed, including at least the climate normal, and ideally the percentiles as well, to quantify the climate anomaly, especially for the extreme events; • Satellite based products often need to be combined with in situ measurements, and sometimes even model simulations, to satisfy the requirements for climate applications; • Work is underway at CPC to construct the climo package for the CMORPH and gauge-CMORPH blended analysis for improved quantitative applications in climate monitoring and climate forecasts verifications;