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2013 Florida Legislative Overview

2013 Florida Legislative Overview. United Way of Miami-Dade 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United Way of Florida, Inc. Money - Post War U.S. Recessions. 2. Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions, August. 3.

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2013 Florida Legislative Overview

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  1. 2013 Florida Legislative Overview United Way of Miami-Dade 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United Way of Florida, Inc.

  2. Money - Post War U.S. Recessions 2

  3. Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions, August 3 Source: Calculated RISK Finance & Economics, September 2012

  4. Florida Economy Population 4

  5. Florida Economy - Population Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, May 11, 2012 5

  6. Florida Economy - Population Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, June 2011 6

  7. Florida Economy - Population Avg. Ann. Pop. Grwth 318,000 7

  8. Florida Economy – Population Growth by Age Group 8 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  9. Florida Economy Construction Home Sales Foreclosures 9

  10. Florida’s Long Recovery Construction • -384,000 jobs from 2007 • +4,200 (1.3%) jobs Sept/Sept • 2007 levels won’t return until 2031 10 Source: University of Central Florida, August 2012; Associated General Contractors, November, 2012

  11. Home Sales Continue Improving Existing Single-Family Homes – 11/2011-2012 • +24.4% • US - +14.5% • 8 months consecutive increase • +14.1% - Median Sales Prices • $154,000 • +10.6% - Average Sales Price • $223,301 Condo Sales • +18.3% • +20.2% - Median Sales Prices 11 Source: Florida Realtors, December 2012; January 2013

  12. Home Sales 12 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  13. Florida Foreclosures Florida Foreclosure Rate • #1 in US 2012 • 1 Filing for every 312 Housing Units • US Rate = 1/706 • #1 – Foreclosure filings in January • 29,800 homes entered foreclosure • July –December 2012 • 105K - foreclosures cleared from the court • 98K – foreclosures started • December 31 – 371K pending foreclosures Source: RealtyTrac & Office of the State Courts Administrator, February 2013 13

  14. Florida Foreclosures Average Foreclosure Timeframe in Florida • 2007 - 169 days • 2012 - 861 days (about 2.5 years) • 3rd longest in nation But…Foreclosure Starts +24% Dec./Dec Result on FL Budget Flat/slight growth in property tax income. Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Long Range Financial Outlook, Fall 2012 14

  15. Florida Foreclosures Ahead 38% of all residential loans in Florida are for homes that are underwater. 15 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  16. August 2012 Foreclosure Rate Heat Map 16 Source: RealtyTrac LLC, August 2012

  17. Florida Economy Tourism 17

  18. Tourism Rocks! Total Tourism Spending (Tourism/Recreation Taxable Sales) 2002-2011: 2002 - $51.1 billion 2003 - $51.5 billion* 2004 - $57.1 billion  2005 - $62.0 billion 2006 - $65.0 billion 2007 - $65.5 billion 2008 - $65.2 billion 2009 - $60.9 billion 2010 - $62.7 billion 2011 - $67.2 billion 18 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

  19. Tourism Rocks! Total State Sales Tax Revenues from Tourism 2002-2011: 2002 - $3.0 billion 2003 - $3.1 billion 2004 - $3.4 billion 2005 - $3.7 billion 2006 - $3.9 billion 2007 - $3.9 billion 2008 - $3.9 billion 2009 - $3.7 billion 2010 - $3.8 billion 2011 - $4.0 billion 19 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

  20. Tourism Rocks! Number of Persons Directly Employed by Tourism Industry 2002-2011: 2002 - 862,900 2003 - 874,700 2004 - 920,700 2005 - 948,700 2006 - 964,700 2007 - 991,300 2008 - 1,007,000 2009 - 973,800 2010 - 974,700 2011 - 1,013,100 20 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

  21. Tourism Rocks! Quarter ending June 30, 2012 over 2nd quarter 2011 • +1.3% overall • 2.4M Foreign Visitors: +10% • 18.8M domestic visitors: +0.3% Tourism Jobs: +1.1% (11,300) to 1,041,900 Tourism-Related Taxable Sales: +8.8% ($31.5B) 21 Source: Visit Florida, August 2012

  22. Florida Unemployment 22 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  23. Florida Unemployment December 2012 Florida Unemployment • 8% - lowest rate in more than four years (11/08). • 7.8% - US Rate • 749,000 Floridians unemployed New jobs: • Leisure and hospital industry lead the way: +29,900 jobs (3.1% increase) 23 Source: Department of Economic Opportunity, January 2013

  24. National Jobs Lost & Recovered 24 Source: National Employment Law Project, The Low-Wage Recovery and Growing Inequality, August 2012.

  25. Florida Budget Florida Budget 25

  26. Florida Budget Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida Bad: • 2010 SS payroll tax deduction expires - $6.5B • Temporarily reduced in 2010 (6.2% to 4.2%) • 7.1 million Florida households seeing a tax increase • Median Florida household ($45,000) – +$900 taxes in 2013. Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 26

  27. Florida Budget Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida Good: • Extended federal emergency UC program, due to expire Jan. 1, for another year. • $1.4 billion for Florida economy • Long Term Unemployment • US – 40% • FL – 50.6% Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 27

  28. Florida Budget The Sequester $85 billion in spending cuts (2.4% of $3.6 trillion in federal spending) Source: The White House, February 2013. 28

  29. Florida Budget The Sequester: Florida Impacts • -31,000 civilian DOD jobs furloughed (-$183.2m) • -7,450 – children vaccinated (-$509,000) • -2,700 Head Start Children • -1,600 – subsidized child care children • -$3.8 million – meals for seniors • -$5 million – substance abuse grants • -$54.5 million – primary & secondary education Source: The White House, February 2013. 29

  30. Florida Budget Florida: Positive Debt Picture • -$2B since 2010 • $28.2B - $26.2B AAA Bond Rating • State Borrowing • 2012 - $416M • 2002-2010 - $2B annually (avg.) • Programs dependant on bonding: • School construction &maintenance (57% of debt load) • Transportation (27%) • Florida Forever (10%) 30 Source: Office of the Chief Financial Officer, December 2012

  31. General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) Source: Legislative Budget Commission, September 2011 31

  32. General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) • Updated December, 2012 • All GR – recurring, nonrecurring, roll-over • Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Fall 2012 Report 32

  33. No Budget Shortfall??? 2013-2014 Budget: “Flat” Flat is good! Budget surplus: first in 5 years 33

  34. Florida GR History 34 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  35. Florida GR Budget 2012-2013 35 Source: The Florida Legislature

  36. Florida GR Budget 2012-2013 36 Source: The Florida Legislature

  37. Florida Budget 2012-2013 37 Source: The Florida Legislature

  38. Florida Budget 2012-2013 38 Source: The Florida Legislature

  39. Florida GR Revenue Sources 39 Source: FL Revenue Estimating Conf.; 2012 Florida Tax Handbook

  40. 2013 Legislative Session Overview Thanks! 40

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