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Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011

Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013. Cara McCarthy Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast Program National Water and Climate Center Portland, OR. Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011.

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Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011

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  1. Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013 Cara McCarthy Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast Program National Water and Climate Center Portland, OR Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011 Entry to Geneva Park Snow Course, South Platte, for February 1st, 2013 Measurement, 60% of Normal

  2. Water Supply Forecasts/Current Conditions • A SNOTEL site you should not use for SWE • Snow Course Reductions • Change to 1981-2010 SWE Medians Sawtooth Snow Course, South Platte Feb 1st Measurement

  3. February 1, 2013

  4. Feb 1, 2013

  5. February 1, 2013 Snow Water Equivalent as % of Normal (Median)

  6. SNOTEL Month-to-Date Precipitation % of Normal February 18, 2013

  7. Change in SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent since February 1 Feb 18, 2013 SWE % Normal Feb 1, 2013 SWE % of Normal

  8. Month-to-Date Guidance Forecast Change as Percent of 1981-2010 Normal Feb 18, 2013

  9. From Lucas Zukiewicz, NRCS SSWSF Montana DCO 2/7/2013

  10. Pike Creek SNOTEL May 2009

  11. Pike Creek SNOTEL May 2009

  12. 39 Snow Course Reductions in Montana DCO Area Bear Basin Snow Course 2006

  13. New Normals this Year • Every decade the 30 year normals change periods. • This year we go from the 1971-2000 period to the 1981-2010 period. • The change is meant to keep pace with current climatic conditions as the most recent years are said to represent the current conditions. • Most data types are calculated as a straight average except Snow Water Equivalent which is “median” or “middle value”

  14. Why will SWE use a median?

  15. Lewis Lake Divide SNOTEL Site Yellowstone NP January 16, 2013

  16. Effect of Change to Median SWE 1981-2010

  17. http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reportGenerator/

  18. Questions? www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

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