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“We regret we are unable to give you the weather, we rely on weather reports from the airport, which is closed, because of the weather. Whether we will be able to give you the weather tomorrow depends on the weather” - Arab News Jan 1979. INTRODUCTION. IMPACT OF WEATHER ON WARFARE.
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“We regret we are unable to give you the weather, we rely on weather reports from the airport, which is closed, because of the weather. Whether we will be able to give you the weather tomorrow depends on the weather” - Arab News Jan 1979
IMPACT OF WEATHER ON WARFARE In 480 BC, Emperor of Persia was on verge of invading Greece, however, weather turned bad and storms at sea destroyed the bridge of boats.
IMPACT OF WEATHER ON WARFARE In 1588, storms off coast of Scotland wrecked many ships of the Spanish armada
IMPACT OF WEATHER ON WARFARE • In June 1812, Napoleon invaded Russia with 5,00,000 troops, left later with lesser than 10,000 surviving troops due Russian winter and cold.
EMERGENCE OF AIRPOWER • First heavier than air flight was flown by Wright Brothers on 17 Dec 1903.
EMERGENCE OF AIRPOWER • By 1909, ac inducted in military service. • Aviation technology comprised of light wooden mono/bi/tri planes and ac very vulnerable to weather effects. • By end of Second World War, jet engine technology invented. • Soon avionics improved and limited weather penetration capability achieved. Transport ac and strategic bombers carried weather radars.
EMERGENCE OF AIRPOWER With development of better nav aids, precision instrument landing devices and advanced weather radars, capability to penetrate and operate in adverse weather conditions improved. Ac called all weather multi role air superiority ac.
EMERGENCE OF AIRPOWER • Recent Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq wars clearly show that effectiveness of world’s most advanced airpower degraded by adverse weather. • They faced serious delays in critical depl of heavy equip and tps, could fight in air for ltd periods of time, precision wpns still went astray and surv activities considerably degraded.
CHANGES IN ROE • Minimising friendly casualties. • Reducing collateral damage. • Adverse weather conditions seriously limit airpower’s ability to strike targets effectively.
THEREFORE WEATHER SUPPORT WOULD REMAIN CRUCIAL IN FUTURE IN THE PLANNING AND CONDUCT OF AIR OPERATIONS
Know yourself, Know your enemy; Your victory will never be endangered. Know the ground, Know the weather, Your victory will then be total. - Sun Tzu
OP OVERLORD • Weather in theatre unfavourable for last three days. • Allies had availability of additional weather observation sites over land and sea. • Forecasters predicted period of slightly improving although still operationally marginal conditions.
OP OVERLORD • Theatre Cdr, decided to launch on 06 June 1944. • German weather forecasters predicted that stormy weather unsuitable for Allied invasion. • Accurate weather prediction and support played crucial role in achieving success at Operational level.
OP MARKET GARDEN • Weather not so kind to Allies on 19 Sep 1944, when major Airborne drop was planned in Holland. • Bad weather existed from airfields in England to drop and landing zones in Holland.
OP MARKET GARDEN • It turned Airborne Ops into disaster. • Less than half of tpt ac and gliders laden with supplies and reinforcements reached their intended destination.
BATTLE OF BULGE In Dec 1944, Gen Patton prayed to God to give him four clear days during Battle of Bulge so that his fighter bombers could attack and recce ac could locate German ground targets.
VIETNAM WAR • During rainy season, due to cloud cover, US fixed wing CAS ac ltd to carrying out low level attacks • Thereby resulting in heavy casualties.
RESCUE OPS: TEHERAN In 1980, efforts to rescue US hostages in Teheran failed when three of eight mission essential heptrs aborted, of which two collided against each other due bad weather.
OP ALLIED FORCE • Air ops in Bosnia significantly degraded due weather. • Of 45,935 sorties planned, only 38,004 flown. • 21 days full scale air ops against 78 days.
OP ALLIED FORCE • In first half of conflict, adverse weather seriously undermined air ops. • Inspite of professed all weather capability, ac still affected by weather.
WEATHER ANALYSIS: GULF WAR • Ideal months to carry out air warfare would be Apr / Oct. • Air war in 1991 carried out during Jan/Feb months. • Weather conditions a major concern during Op Desert Shield and Op Desert Storm. • Period charac by fog, low cloud ceilings and rain. • Terrain periodically affected by high wind speeds averaging 35 to 45 miles/hour.
WEATHER EFFECT ON GULF WAR • Amphibious landing on Saudi Coast aborted. • Timed first air attacks to coincide with absence of moonlight and forecasts of clear weather. • 17 hours after first wpn released, worst stretch of bad weather in 14 years engulfed Iraq and Kuwait. • During first week, rain and poor visibility forced many aircrew to abort missions. • Cloud cover exceeded 25% on 31 out of 43 days, 51% on 21 days and 75% on 09 of these days.
WEATHER EFFECT ON GULF WAR • On 22 Jan 91, 200 missions cancelled. • Accompanying cloud cover occasionally violent winds and heavy rains degrading targeting and BDA. • Laser designation capability significantly affected due to low level cloud cover. • To acquire targets visually, pilots flew beneath cloud layer. • Bad weather conditions also affected Allied surveillance and reconnaissance capability.
EFFECT OF OBSCURANTS • On 22 Jan 91, Iraqi forces set fire to two oil refineries in Southern Kuwait. • Thick viscous plumes of crude oil spread over KTO. • Fumes, vapours and clouds of smoke, major hazard to flying.
EFFECT OF OBSCURANTS • Sensitive seeker heads, extensively affected by films of oil. • Combination of poor weather, fog and smoke resulted in few instances of fratricide. • Sand also affected moving parts in heptrs and caused severe maintenance problems.
GROUND WAR • Weather was major limiting factor in choosing time for initiation of grd offensive. • Due bad weather quantum of sorties generated suffered. • CAS missions too affected by smoke from burning oil wells and fog.
GULF WAR Had the quantitative and qualitative asymmetry not been so large between Allied Forces and Iraq, and had Saddam Hussein exercised his airpower more offensively, result of the air war could have been quite different.
LESSONS LEARNT GULF WAR • Campaign months ideally should have been Apr/Oct. • If enemy exploits weather and artificial obscurants, it could limit modern and technologically advanced airpower’s effectiveness. • Extended periods of adverse weather could seriously delay movement of critical equipment, forces and logistic supplies.
LESSONS LEARNT GULF WAR • Low level cloud cover, poor visibility and fog cause problems in target acquisition and in carrying out accurate weapon delivery. • Obscurants, cloud cover and dust pose problems in laser designation and in performance of precision wpns. Thereby increasing chances of collateral damage and fratricide. • Electro-optical seeker heads get seriously affected by sand, dust and films of oil.
LESSONS LEARNT GULF WAR • Adverse weather severely degrades surveillance and reconnaissance capability. • Best time for exploiting weather is when it improves from bad weather conditions to marginal weather. • Air ops require continuous weather support and availability of real time information on the existing weather conditions.
One of major lessons learnt during Op Desert Storm was that Weather Support Ops were not centralised
