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Climate change and Water Management. Policy options for the future. 1. Climate change – dealing with uncertainties . Temperature rise Sea level rise Precipitation patterns River discharges – averages and peak discharges Storm surges and hurricanes. Risks with respect to water management .

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climate change and water management

Climate change and Water Management

Policy options for the future

1

climate change dealing with uncertainties
Climate change – dealing with uncertainties
  • Temperature rise
  • Sea level rise
  • Precipitation patterns
  • River discharges – averages and peak discharges
  • Storm surges and hurricanes

Climate Change and Water Management

risks with respect to water management
Risks with respect to water management
  • Changes in flood risks: coastal and river areas
  • Changes in water availability and drought risks
  • Salinization of deltas
  • Increased risks of urban flooding

According to IPCC effects of climate change may be prominent in

second half of 2100 (IPCC, 2008)

Climate Change and Water Management

trend in weather related disasters 1980 2009
Trend in weather-related disasters 1980-2009
  • Data do not allow conclusions about relationship climate change and disasters
  • Corrected for population growth andeconomic growth there is a stabilization
  • 2010-2050
  • Population growth by 1/3 up to 9 billion
  • Further economic growth
  • Vulnerability increases
  • Water demand increases

Source: Visser et al., in prep

Climate Change and Water Management

world water resources
Salt water 1,05 billion km3 97,5%

Freshwater 35 million km3 2,5%

Available for use <1 %

World water resources

Source: UNEP; WWAP

Climate Change and Water Management

uncertainties availability demand tipping points

water demand

Uncertainties availability  demand: tipping points

water quantity

  • Options:
  • Increase resource *water harvesting *de-salinization
  • Increase resource efficiency *households *industries
  • *agriculture

Resource variability

Result:

- Reduced vulnerability

- Buying time

2030

2050

time

freshwater use world wide

20% of agricultural area

=> 40% of food production

Irrigation increases crop production factor 2-5

Freshwater use world wide
  • Households 8%
  • Industry 22%
  • Agriculture 70%

80% agricultural area rainfed

Source: UNEP; WWAP

relevant drivers increasing pressure on water
Relevant drivers increasing pressure on water
  • Population growth up to 9 billion people with 70% in cities
  • Economic growth and increasing wealth
  • Growth of food production (irrigation, nutrients, pesticides)
  • Changes in diet: more meat increases water demands
  • Globalisation and liberalisation => shift of food productionfrom dry areas to wet areas
  • Biomass production: water demand >> rice and wheat
  • Climate change
diet change increases water demand
Diet change increases water demand

water use/kg

  • Cattle 15 m3
  • Sheeps/goats 10 m3
  • Poultry 6 m3
  • Rice 3 m3
  • Wheat 1,5 m3
  • Citrus 1 m3

Source: FAO

shift of food production increases water stress

Europefood/biomass

China, Korea, Japan -> Africa

food, biomass

Brasil -> Mozambique

biomass sugercane

Saoudi Arabia -> Ethiopiafood Soedan

Shift of food production increases water stress

Source: PBL in OECD; WUR

water embedded in complex interactions
Water embedded in complex interactions

Food import

international

networks

Urban

developments

  • Export
  • food
  • biomass

food

migration

capital

land conversion

capital

food

….

Rural &

Nature

developments

Capital driven

agriculture

Water and food-

security not only a

matter of water

national &

foreign

investors

water

land conversion

labour

emissions

role of water management
Role of water management
  • Main drivers out of reach
  • Water needs to be integrated in economic analyses- optimizing crop per drop (production/m3 , $$ /m3)- $$/m3 agriculture  $$/m3 competing activities- $$ ecosystemservices- …
  • Contribution to fair sharing: between nations, between people, between sectors (nature, ecosystems)
  • Basis: analysis on scale of river basins!
wide variety of policy instruments
Wide variety of policy instruments
  • Information – behavioural changes
  • Standards waterquality * nutrients * other emissions
  • Water permits, water rights
  • Land use planning
  • Technology * improving resource eff. * de-salinisation
  • Cutting perverse subsidies
  • Introduce positive subsidies
  • …..
slide20

Future challenges

  • Strategic
  • Integration of water and climate in economical and political strategies
  • Powerfull economical analyses on river basin scale for informed decisions on water allocation and use (River Basin Committees  National governments)
  • Water is cross-cutting issue: supra-sectoral approach required withincontext of water basins
  • Guiding principles: sustainable use and fair sharing
  • Technology
  • Sharp improvement of resource efficiency especially in agriculture
  • De-salinization based on renewable and cheap energy
  • Water-harvesting techniques
  • …………

Willem Ligtvoet, January 12

20

Climate Change and Water Management

slide21

Enormous geographical differences

  • No silver bullets – area-specific analyses and approaches needed

Economic system

Political/societal system

Physical system

What?

How?

Willem Ligtvoet, January 12

21

Climate Change and Water Management

slide22

Thank you !

Willem Ligtvoet, January 12

22

Climate Change and Water Management