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Climate change and Water Management

Climate change and Water Management. Policy options for the future. 1. Climate change – dealing with uncertainties . Temperature rise Sea level rise Precipitation patterns River discharges – averages and peak discharges Storm surges and hurricanes. Risks with respect to water management .

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Climate change and Water Management

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  1. Climate change and Water Management Policy options for the future 1

  2. Climate change – dealing with uncertainties • Temperature rise • Sea level rise • Precipitation patterns • River discharges – averages and peak discharges • Storm surges and hurricanes Climate Change and Water Management

  3. Risks with respect to water management • Changes in flood risks: coastal and river areas • Changes in water availability and drought risks • Salinization of deltas • Increased risks of urban flooding According to IPCC effects of climate change may be prominent in second half of 2100 (IPCC, 2008) Climate Change and Water Management

  4. Trend in weather-related disasters 1980-2009 • Data do not allow conclusions about relationship climate change and disasters • Corrected for population growth andeconomic growth there is a stabilization • 2010-2050 • Population growth by 1/3 up to 9 billion • Further economic growth • Vulnerability increases • Water demand increases Source: Visser et al., in prep Climate Change and Water Management

  5. Salt water 1,05 billion km3 97,5% Freshwater 35 million km3 2,5% Available for use <1 % World water resources Source: UNEP; WWAP Climate Change and Water Management

  6. water demand Uncertainties availability  demand: tipping points water quantity • Options: • Increase resource *water harvesting *de-salinization • Increase resource efficiency *households *industries • *agriculture Resource variability Result: - Reduced vulnerability - Buying time 2030 2050 time

  7. 20% of agricultural area => 40% of food production Irrigation increases crop production factor 2-5 Freshwater use world wide • Households 8% • Industry 22% • Agriculture 70% 80% agricultural area rainfed Source: UNEP; WWAP

  8. Relevant drivers increasing pressure on water • Population growth up to 9 billion people with 70% in cities • Economic growth and increasing wealth • Growth of food production (irrigation, nutrients, pesticides) • Changes in diet: more meat increases water demands • Globalisation and liberalisation => shift of food productionfrom dry areas to wet areas • Biomass production: water demand >> rice and wheat • Climate change

  9. Water demand 2000-2050 increases Source: PBL in OECD

  10. Urban Rural Population lacking access to improved watersupply Source: PBL in OECD

  11. Urban Rural Population lacking access to improved sanitation Urban Rural Source: PBL in OECD

  12. Diet change increases water demand water use/kg • Cattle 15 m3 • Sheeps/goats 10 m3 • Poultry 6 m3 • Rice 3 m3 • Wheat 1,5 m3 • Citrus 1 m3 Source: FAO

  13. Europefood/biomass China, Korea, Japan -> Africa food, biomass Brasil -> Mozambique biomass sugercane Saoudi Arabia -> Ethiopiafood Soedan Shift of food production increases water stress Source: PBL in OECD; WUR

  14. Water embedded in complex interactions Food import international networks Urban developments • Export • food • biomass food migration capital land conversion capital food …. Rural & Nature developments Capital driven agriculture Water and food- security not only a matter of water national & foreign investors water land conversion labour emissions

  15. Role of water management • Main drivers out of reach • Water needs to be integrated in economic analyses- optimizing crop per drop (production/m3 , $$ /m3)- $$/m3 agriculture  $$/m3 competing activities- $$ ecosystemservices- … • Contribution to fair sharing: between nations, between people, between sectors (nature, ecosystems) • Basis: analysis on scale of river basins!

  16. Integrated water basin management

  17. Interactions upstream/downstream

  18. + complex thematic interactions Land use Water use

  19. Wide variety of policy instruments • Information – behavioural changes • Standards waterquality * nutrients * other emissions • Water permits, water rights • Land use planning • Technology * improving resource eff. * de-salinisation • Cutting perverse subsidies • Introduce positive subsidies • …..

  20. Future challenges • Strategic • Integration of water and climate in economical and political strategies • Powerfull economical analyses on river basin scale for informed decisions on water allocation and use (River Basin Committees  National governments) • Water is cross-cutting issue: supra-sectoral approach required withincontext of water basins • Guiding principles: sustainable use and fair sharing • Technology • Sharp improvement of resource efficiency especially in agriculture • De-salinization based on renewable and cheap energy • Water-harvesting techniques • ………… Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 20 Climate Change and Water Management

  21. Enormous geographical differences • No silver bullets – area-specific analyses and approaches needed Economic system Political/societal system Physical system What? How? Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 21 Climate Change and Water Management

  22. Thank you ! Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 22 Climate Change and Water Management

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