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Turning the Tide: Using Longitudinal Data to Understand the Flow of Children through Foster Care

Turning the Tide: Using Longitudinal Data to Understand the Flow of Children through Foster Care. Daniel Webster Joseph Magruder University of California, Berkeley Terry Shaw University of Maryland The 12 th National Child Welfare Data and Technology Conference Bethesda, MD June 2009

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Turning the Tide: Using Longitudinal Data to Understand the Flow of Children through Foster Care

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  1. Turning the Tide:Using Longitudinal Data to Understand the Flow of Children through Foster Care Daniel Webster Joseph Magruder University of California, Berkeley Terry Shaw University of Maryland The 12th National Child Welfare Data and Technology Conference Bethesda, MD June 2009 The Performance Indicators Project is funded by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation

  2. Outline • Approaches to examining longitudinal data • Limitations of these approaches • Flow—an expanded perspective • Application of flow across a seven-year span • Conclusions and next steps

  3. Approaches to Longitudinal Data • How do we investigate children’s experience in the child welfare system? • Point in time – counts of children on a day. • Exits – counts of children leaving care. • Entries – counts of children entering care. • Ecological – counts of children in a year.

  4. Limitations of Approaches • These approaches give a limited view of children’s trajectory and often cyclical involvement with the foster care system. • How long was the child in care? • How many placements did the child have? • Did the child’s placement level step down? • How many episodes has the child had? • Did the child reenter care?

  5. Flow through the foster care system • Flow—building upon the ecological data approach • Fully-longitudinal data are necessary to answer these questions. • The following slides look at children’s experience in the child welfare system from 1999 through the end of 2008. • Looking at exits • Reentries • Re-exits and Re-reentries

  6. Data Source • Based on quarterly extracts from California’s Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS) • Extracts are configured into a longitudinal database as part of a collaboration between the California Department of Social Services and the Center for Social Services Research (CSSR) at UC Berkeley • 1999-2001 child welfare-supervised care • Children 0-11 years old (on first day of year or at entry to care) • Followed for 7 years in and out of care (data cut-off: 1/1/09)

  7. 26,035 1,168 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 240 48 2000 77,077 Children

  8. 2,129 24,405+655 2001 54,112 Children 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 2000 77,077 Children 121 87

  9. 2,232 15,077 +1,179 73 69 2001 54,112 Children 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 2000 77,077 Children 2002 40,084 Children

  10. 2,087 8,067 +1,431 47 58 2001 54,112 Children 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 2000 77,077 Children 2003 2002 32,684 Children 40,084 Children

  11. 2,249 5,640 +1,677 2001 54,112 Children 70 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 2000 77,077 Children 2004 27,615 Children 2003 2002 32,684 Children 40,084 Children 69

  12. 2001 2,234 54,112 Children 70 77 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 2000 77,077 Children 2005 3,515 +1,821 24,506 Children 2004 27,615 Children 2003 2002 32,684 Children 40,084 Children

  13. 3,670 +2,142 76 70 2001 2,133 54,112 Children 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 2000 2006 77,077 Children 20,821 Children 2005 24,506 Children 2004 27,615 Children 2003 2002 32,684 Children 40,084 Children

  14. 3,455 +2,106 84 66 2001 1,899 54,112 Children 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 17,141 Children (16.8% of original) 2000 2006 77,077 Children 20,821 Children 2005 24,506 Children 2004 27,615 Children 2003 2002 32,684 Children 40,084 Children

  15. 2001 54,112 Children 1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738) Flow through the foster care system 1999 102,136 Children 17,141 Children (16.8% of original) • 17,141 children in care on 12/31/2006 (16.8% of the original) 2000 2006 77,077 Children 20,821 Children • 11,991 Children never exited from care (11.7% of original – 70.0% of children in care on 12/31/2006) 2005 24,506 Children 2004 27,615 Children 2003 2002 32,684 Children 40,084 Children

  16. 2002 48,238 Children 2000 In-care (71,555 children) and Entry population (26,580) Flow through the foster care system 2000 98,135 Children 15,397 Children (15.7% of original) • 15,397 children in care on 12/31/2007 (15.7% of the original) 2001 2007 67,630 Children 19,152 Children • 10,653 Children never exited from care (10.9% of original - 69.2% of children in care on 12/31/2007) 2006 22,363 Children 2005 24,890 Children 2004 2003 28,943 Children 36,446 Children

  17. 2003 44,518 Children 2001 In-care (62,392 children) and Entry population (26,835) Flow through the foster care system 2001 89,227 Children 13,355 Children (14.97% of original) • 13,355 children in care on 12/31/2008 (14.97% of the original) 2002 2008 62,244 Children 16,968 Children • 9,227 Children never exited from care (10.3% of original - 69.1% of children in care on 12/31/2008) 2007 20,124 Children 2006 22,145 Children 2005 2004 25,617 Children 31,951 Children

  18. 1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years

  19. 1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years

  20. 1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years

  21. 1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years

  22. 2001 Children Not Exiting in 7 Years by Age & Ethnic Group

  23. Conclusions • Children already in care at start of a period (the ‘stock’) were much less likely to ever exit over a span of 7 years than children entering during the period. • There appears to be a slight decrease in the never-exit proportion from 1999 to 2001, which holds for almost all ethnic groups. • Nonetheless, it is quite notable that one out of ten children already in or entering care in 2001 never exited foster care over a span of 7 years. • African Americans and young school-aged children (6-10 year olds) had the highest proportions for never exiting.

  24. Next Steps • Examination of flow by county or region (to uncover potential practices worth replicating via PQCR) • Application of multivariate model on likelihood of never exiting (using demographic, placement constellation, service history covariates) • In addition to ‘non-exiters,’ analysis of children with multiple exits and reentries (‘recyclers’). • As time passes, examination of flow with more follow-up time, and for post CFSR years will be instructive.

  25. Questions Daniel Webster dwebster@berkeley.edu 510.290.6779 Joseph Magruder joemagruder@berkeley.edu 510.643.2585 Terry Shaw tshaw@ssw.umaryland.edu 410.706.3811

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