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Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. WMO DRR Expert Meeting IOC Tsunami Warning Systems, Operational National end-to-end Systems, Co-ordination and Support Geneva, November 27 2007. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Established in 1960 in UNESCO

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Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

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  1. IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission WMO DRR Expert Meeting IOC Tsunami Warning Systems, Operational National end-to-end Systems, Co-ordination and Support Geneva, November 27 2007 Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  2. IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission • Established in 1960 in UNESCO • Purpose to promote international cooperation and to coordinate programmes in research, services and capacity-building, in order to learn more about the nature and resources of theocean and coastal areas and to apply that knowledge for the improvement ofmanagement, sustainable development,theprotection of the marine environment, and the decision-making process of its Member States Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  3. IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission • Mandated by IOC Assembly resolutions in 1960, 2005 and 2007 • Mandate extended to multi-hazard approach, • Specifically sea-level based hazards • Global oversight Working Group TOWS under Assembly established to • - ensure coherency and consistency • - provide uniform governance structure • Mandated under UNGA 61 Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  4. Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System • 1965: IOC established the ICG/ITSU International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (PTWC headquarters) - successful & operational Tsunami Warning & Mitigation system • 2005: IOC established the ICG/IOTWS, ICG/NEAMTWS, ICG/CARIBE-EWS • 2007: IOC establishes TOWS (global supervisory) Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  5. United Nations role: What is the System? • Define the proper scale of problem and its solution. • The system must be: • Fully owned by countries in region • Based on international multilateral cooperation • Based on open and free data exchange • Protect ALL countries in region • Transparent and accountable to all members Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  6. End-to-End System Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  7. FACTS: • Every Ocean Basin and Sea impacted • Next tsunami can occur anywhere and any time • Some countries have coasts on 2 or more basins • No Early Tsunami Warning Systemsoutside Pacific in 2004 • Comprehensive Tsunami Mitigation Programme required Hazard Risk Assessment, Preparedness, Warning Guidance Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  8. Besides the Pacific system three more regions to coordinate Criteria -relevant -appropriate -affordable -robust Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  9. Designing a GLOBAL Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System 3 Oceans 4 Seas Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  10. IOC in UN partnership Warning guidance Hazard assessment Mitigation IOC ISDR WMO Communication (GTS) Multi-hazard Public awareness Preparedness Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  11. How does it function? • Is based on the joint operation of international networks of detection connected with national tsunami warning centres • UN governance provided under the IOC • Each nation is responsible for issuing warnings in their territory and protect its own population. • National centres must have strong links with emergency preparedness authorities (national, provincial and local) Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  12. REGIONAL ELEMENTS (Pacific): Regional Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System NationalTWC WC/ATWC NationalTWC NationalTWC NWPTAC NationalTWC NationalTWS NationalTWC PTWC RegionalTWC International TsunamiInformationCentre (ITIC) Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  13. Describing the System PRESENT: PTWS: PTWC, WC/ATWC,JMA Interim System (PTWC, JMA) FUTURE PTWS? Intl System comprised of Natl/ sub-regional TWC as countries develop their own centres Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  14. Indian OceanWhere are we now? • A single system being established All countries of Indian Ocean participate • Interim Tsunami advisory information from centres in Hawaii and Tokyo. • National 7/24 Focal Points in 26 nations • Governance under UN/IOC • Full scope of task recognized: multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3) • Joint UN implementation: IOC, WMO, ISDR, UNDP, UN-ESCAP Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  15. Status and achievements in the ICG/IOTWS process (mainly through ISDR Flash Appeal) • 28 real-time sea level stations • 25 new broadband seismometers • Dozen technical training courses on tsunami modelling and seismic analysis • 19 TW capacity assessment missions • Tsunami Warning Emergency Standard Operations Procedures for Indonesia (2006-07) • TsunamiTeacher: multi-purpose educational toolkit in English and Bahasa Indonesia (7 more languages under way) • Various educational material on tsunamis • 23 country assessment missions Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  16. The unseen part of post-disaster recovery process is an Early Warning System • Two major tasks: • - Identify, detect, verify and predict natural extrema, such as tsunami, cyclones, earthquakes with potential implications to mankind (upstream component) • - Raise awareness and preparedness to react appropriately to warnings of such extreme events (downstream component) Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  17. IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience): • WARNING CENTREprovides warning guidance incl Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings; Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn) • NDMO (recognized authority) receives warning, immediately evaluates/translates, disseminates public message Additionally, hazard and risk, preparedness guidance • BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER 3. EWS SUSTAINABILITY – MULTI-HAZARDS APPROACH 4. COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, esp. for regional and distant tsunamis Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  18. What are the essential information for Civil Defense and the emergency plan ? The warning centre must provide: 1) Information on the earthquake: • location and magnitude 2) Information on tsunami • time of tsunami arrival • Importance of the tsunami (i.e, est. of amplitude of the tsunami) 3) Seriousness of the warning evaluation of the danger associated rescues to be forecasted (Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)

  19. THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS • VERY RAPID EARTHQUAKE EVAL • VERY RAPID SEA LEVEL EVAL • VERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONS • Multi-national, Global Nets • Real-time transmission • Data Sharing • ALL REQUIRED FOR WARNING IO Core Seismic Network IOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoring IOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoring IOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoring

  20. A perfect warning will be useless if people do not know what to do in case of an emergency Awareness and preparedness at the country/community level is essential Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  21. TAKING ACTION - WHAT TO DO: MOST TIMELY WARNINGS - HOW? • TO ACT FAST WITHOUT CONFUSION Develop/implement TWC and TERP SOP • TO ACT FASTER / MAKE SURE IT WORKS, PRACTICE Test communications, end-to-end response before the real thing Conduct Drills since tsunamis infrequent BEST, LONG-TERM PREPAREDNESS • BUILD TSUNAMI ADVOCACY GROUPS Resilient self-motivated, communities How? People-centered No simple process, no simple answers Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  22. Successes, Failures - 2006How the Pacific is responding: • 3 May, TONGA, M7.9 - Media causes NZ evac, not Natl auth • 26 Dec, TAIWAN, M6.9 - Media reports though ‘small’; telecom delays due to undersea cable disruption => PTWC to provide HEADS-UP (EQ Obs Msg) • 17 Jul, JAVA, INDONESIA, M7.7 - Slow earthquake, but downstream dissemination and coordination not in place => SOP development, End-to-End TWC to Locals IOC (TWC); Local: IOC, UNDP, Germany, IFRC, USA + national/local partners; Sept - present / continuing • 28 Sep, SAMOA, M6.9 - local tsunami - highlighting again the need for local/sub-regional eq/tsunami alert system. In 2006, total of 13 earthquakes > M6.5 => SWP TWG (PTWS) - ongoing ITP-Hawaii Training (Tonga, Samoa TWC / NDMO), Oct IOC PTWS / WMO Reg V /SPREP TWC ws, Apr 2007 Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  23. Successes, Failures - 2006How the Pacific is responding: • 15 Oct, HAWAII, M6.7 - felt EQ but below warning threshold so no message issued - public wants info; statewide power outage hampers communications => Advisory Clear-the-beach - new msg for Hawaii / USA • 15 Nov, KURILS, M8.3 - Warning issued but cancelled, but criteria for cancellation not universally defined. No close-in-time direct confirmation of tsunami generation. International coordination needed. • 13 Jan 2007, KURILS, M8.1 - repeat of 15 Nov => PTWS TWC Coordination Mtg, Jan 2007 8 PTWS TWC + IOC Extensive discussion on all aspects of warning • 21 Jan 2007, MOLUCCA SEA, INDONESIA, M7.5 - quick response with Indonesia downstream dissemination Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  24. TAKING ACTION - 7 steps • KNOW and UNDERSTAND tsunamis, risk • RECOGNIZE natural warning signals • PLAN, and IMPLEMENT warning system (monitor, detect, evaluate, warn) • MONITOR and WARN everyone • MAKE AWARE diverse audiences • KEEP preparedness going forever System readiness - practice to improve Personal responsibility • PREVENT damage by making stronger Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  25. IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission Observations: • Awareness • Preparedness • Detection, verification • Response • Relief • Recovery Remarks: Training is Capacity Building at all levels, steps for those operating the and in the TWS Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  26. IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission Downstream activities: • Define standards, reference material, codes, definitions of terminology on risk, hazard, vulnerability, • Economical, ecological, societal impact studies • “Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get at the people on the beach • Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end system • How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”? Ownership, stakeholder attitude Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  27. IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission Downstream activities: • Define planning/zoning standards, ICAM • Develop building codes, ISEEE • Define, introduce unique signage ISO • Awareness material to be “regionalized”: ISDR, IFRC, WHO, WMO • Develop legal instruments: UN Ocean, DOALOS, • Advise on streamlining administrations • OECD, UNDP, UN Sec, others Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  28. IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission Research Needs: • hi-tech end: better source identification • earthquake, tsunami generation, propagation modelling, coastal inundation maps • Lo-tech end: appropriate national communication systems, governance, increase awareness, preparedness: establish civil defense structures, coastal planning, building codes Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  29. IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission Research Needs: • Clear definitions of risk, hazard, vulnerability, • Economical, ecological, societal impact studies • “Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get at the people on the beach • Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end system • How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”? Ownership, stakeholder attitude Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  30. Conclusions • O standardization of means and contents • O keep it simple, get it cheaper • O get sustained funding • O don’t overload the people involved • O training at all levels, again and again • O upstream: • clear responsibilities, instant reaction • - 90 s off warning interval cost extra 7 MUS$/y • O downstream: • low tech, simple message, trained response Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  31. A perfect warning will be useless if people do not know what to do in case of an emergency Awareness and preparedness at the country level is essential Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

  32. “We cannot stop natural calamities, but we can and must better equip individuals and communities to withstand them.”“Should disaster strike again,and it will in some part of the world,we must be able to say that we did everything humanly possible to build resilient societies.”former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan

  33. Thank You

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