Influences on Voting Part One

1. Influences on Voting Part One Why do people vote the way they do?

2. THE INFLUENCES ARE COMPLEX There are many influences on voters in the UK. They are complex. They are changing. They are also inter-related, not separate. We all have a social class. We all have a gender. We all have a race. The media is also an influence. But there are many different types of media. And the different social classes access different kinds of media. Let’s look at the different influences and come to some conclusions.

3. Social Class 2010 general election Voting by Social Class Source: Ipsos MORI Social class remains a key influence. Why?

4. Social Class Up until the 1970s there was a clear two party system, with Labour seen to be championing the working class, the Conservatives the middle and upper classes. Since then, the middle class has grown in size. All the major parties now compete for the middle ground. The FPTP system also encourages parties to ignore “safe” seats and win over floating voters in marginal constituencies. The Electoral Reform Society claims that 382 out of the 649 seats are so safe that any opposition vote is a wasted vote.

5. Social Class and first past the post It is the party which wins the most seats throughout the country who wins UK General Elections. Not the party which wins the most votes. But to win seats, you need to win votes. There are 649 seats in total and each is a distinct geographical area. These areas are separated by social class. Richer people tend to live next to other richer people. Poorer people can only afford to live next to other poorer people. So, many seats are either “safe” Conservative or “safe” Labour, depending on their social class composition. For example….

6. Safe Seat: Richmond (Yorkshire) Safe Seat: Glasgow North East

8. Social class still matters So while, average incomes have risen and we all own more material possessions than ever, the gap between rich and poor still exists. Indeed, it is growing. This gap shows itself in a whole number of social/economic statistics in health, education, crime and housing. Why should voting behaviour would be any different? Voters tend to vote for the party which they feel represents their economic interest. The sociologist Danny Dorling points out that it was voters in the best off constituencies which swung most firmly towards David Cameron.

9. The scottish factor Pamela Nash, Airdrie and Shotts is the youngest MP in the House of Commons. Jim Murphy romped home in affluent East Renfrewshire Labour continues to do best among poorer sections of the community in UK general elections. But, a national aspect also enters the equation. In 2010, Scottish voters, perhaps seeing the General Election as a two horse race between Labour and Conservatives, returned Labour MPs with increased majorities. Labour won in even the most affluent areas, e.g. East Renfrewshire. The Conservatives won just 1 seat in the whole of Scotland.

10. SOCIAL CLASS & Scotland A feature of the 2011 Scottish elections was the scale of Labour’s defeat in its traditional working class heartlands. Labour’s vote fell everywhere, but its best result came in affluent Eastwood (9.7% increase) but Labour’s vote actually fell most heavily in areas of social deprivation. Labour lost “safe” seats such as Glasgow Shettleston and Kirkcaldy. Labour won the Inverclyde by-election in June 2011, despite losing the same seat in the Scottish elections a month earlier. This may be further evidence of a “twin track” approach by some traditional Scottish Labour voters; voting Labour in UK elections where as Labour/Conservative contest is most likely but looking to the SNP for Scottish elections. Frank McAveety (Lab, Shettleston) was just one of the many Labour MSPs in Traditional Labour seats who lost out in 2011 to the SNP

11. Gender is an influence too Women used to have a strong attachment to the Conservatives. In fact, if it wasn’t for the female vote, Labour probably would have won every post-war General Election up until 1979. Since then, their vote has been up for grabs. It is middle class women who are sought after though. Poor women, like poor men, tend to vote Labour. So, meet those who are not so committed. “School Gate Mum”, for example. School Gate Mum is the British version of the “Soccer Mums” found in the USA. They are working women who have demanding lives, balancing work and family responsibilities.

12. 2010 gender & social class The Conservatives won clear majorities among women who have a career, work or have higher disposable incomes. A vital demographic group. Part of the Cameron agenda was for the Conservatives to have more female candidates and be more family friendly. Did this work? Importance of the female vote

13. gender & mumsnet Mumsnet is an internet network that is becoming increasingly influential in politics. Ahead of the 2010 General election all three party leaders went out of their way to woo the influential, middle class female users of the Mumsnet forum by conducting online web chats and answering users questions. Gordon Brown’s wife was the keynote speaker at Mumsnet’s 10th birthday party. Alex Salmond got in on the act ahead of the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, by taking part in a Mumsnet Q & A where he pledged to keep education and personal care for the elderly free in Scotland.

14. Age Traditionally, younger voters are more likely to support parties promising social change. For some time, the Conservatives core vote has been among older, affluent voters. But, in 2010 the Conservatives promoted a more youthful identity.

15. Age & 2010 election The Conservatives did much better in 2010 among younger voters….while maintaing it’s core elderly vote.

16. Race Black voters, traditionally are more likely to be Labour supporters. So too are Asian voters, but not as strongly as blacks. Labour, in general, has been seen to be more sympathetic to the needs of minority ethnic voters. But, David Cameron worked hard to lose the Conservatives the image as the “nasty party”. The Conservatives made big efforts to win the votes of minority voters. Gordon Brown’s slogan “British jobs for British workers” was, ironically, taken up by the BNP. The BNP, with it’s explicitly racist message, failed to win any seats.