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V. R. Reddy

Achieving Food Security and Mitigating Global Environmental Change: Is there a role for Crop Models in Decision Making?. V. R. Reddy Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, USDA-ARS, 10300 Baltimore Ave. Beltsville, MD 20705, USA V. Ambumozhi

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V. R. Reddy

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  1. Achieving Food Security and Mitigating Global Environmental Change: Is there a role for Crop Models in Decision Making? V. R. Reddy Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, USDA-ARS, 10300 Baltimore Ave. Beltsville, MD 20705, USA V. Ambumozhi Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kansai Research Center, Kobe 651-00, Japan K. R. Reddy Dept. of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS 39762, USA

  2. Outline • Past and future trends in population, food production and climate change perturbations • Global environmental change and its impact on agriculture production systems • Role of crop simulation models in addressing future food security and climate change

  3. Issues of 21st Century, Particularly in Developing Countries • Meeting food demands for the growing population • Reducing the risks of soil and ecosystem degradation • Minimizing the risks of eutrophication and contamination of natural waters • Decreasing the net emissions CO2 and other greenhouse gases

  4. Trends That Shape Our Future

  5. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPast, Present and Future World Population

  6. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPresent and Future World Population Trends 56% 10% 50% 120% -5% 42% 39%

  7. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth Global Major Foods – Per Capita Consumption

  8. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthMaize - Production and Yield – Selected Counties P= 67%, and A= 46%

  9. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthRice - Production and Yield – Selected Counties P= 60%, and A= 55%

  10. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthRice - Production and Yield – Selected Counties

  11. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth Cropland area, Irrigation and Salinization Year 2000 Cropland area Irrigated area Salinized area ----------------------------- Mha -------------------------------- China 124.0 54.4 (22%) 7-8 (14%) India 161.8 54.8 (31%) 10-30 (50%) USA 177.0 22.4 (13%) 4.5 -6 (15%) USSR 204.1 19.9 (2%) 2.5-4.5 (21%) World 1364.2 271.7 (21%) 62-82 (37%) Percent change since 1985 S.G. Pritchard and J. S. Amthor, 2005

  12. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPopulation, cereal yield, arable and irrigated area, N use

  13. Feeding 10 Billion Mouths • We must develop the capacity to feed 10 billion people within in the next 40 to 50 years • The average world current cereal yield is about 3 tons per ha for about 6 billion people • We need about 4 tons per ha for 8 billion (33 % more than the current), and 5 tons per ha for 10 billion (67 % more than the current)

  14. Routes to Greater Food Production • Increase in the area of land under cultivation • Displacement of lower yielding crops by higher yielding ones (done since the dawn of domestication) • Efficiency of crop production in terms of: Per unit of land area (yield per ha) Per unit of time Per unit of inputs such as fertilizers, water and labor etc.

  15. Here comes the greatest challenge of our time, The Global Climate Change

  16. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth • Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O etc.) • Temperatures • Glaciers, oceans and sea-levels • Precipitation patterns and drought intensities • Extreme events • Higher ozone and UV-B radiation

  17. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthGlobal Carbon Emissions- Sources

  18. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthGlobal Carbon Emissions and Carbon Fixation

  19. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration

  20. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthProjected Global Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

  21. Global Warming and the Ozone Story Global Warming Process Ozone Depleting Process CFCs are commonly used as refrigerants, solvents, and foam blowing agents. The most common CFCs are CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115.

  22. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPast and current levels in global greenhouse gas concentrations, rates of change and atmospheric lifetime

  23. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthFuture trends in global carbon dioxide concentration and associated climate change, if no interventions are made

  24. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityCotton Photosynthesis – Solar Radiation

  25. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityPhotosynthesis – Leaf Water Potential Well-watered Water stressed

  26. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityCotton Photosynthesis – UV-B Radiation

  27. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityTemperature and CO2 – Rice Growth Baker and Allen, 1993

  28. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityTemperature and CO2 – Rice Yield Baker and Allen, 1993

  29. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityRice Growing Areas

  30. Ambient temperature: 25.36°C = 8.26 t/ha Ambient plus 5°C: 30.36°C = 5.51 t//ha, 33%

  31. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityTemperature and Cotton Growth 4-week old cotton seedlings 20 25 30 35 40

  32. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityTemperature and CO2 – Cotton Reproductive Growth Fruit Production Efficiency

  33. High Temperature Effects on CottonHeat-blasted flower buds and flowersSan Joaquin Valley, California

  34. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityTemperature Effects on Crop Yield – Several Major Crops

  35. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityTemperature and CO2 – Rangeland C4 Grass – Big Bluestem Vegetative Weight and Seed Weight

  36. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityPresent and Projected Temperature Changes

  37. Climate Change and Crop ProductivityConclusions – Temperature and CO2 Interactions • Even though elevated CO2 provided greater protection from abiotic stress effects on vegetative and photosynthetic processes, the damaging effects of either high temperatures or elevated UV-B levels on reproductive process were not ameliorated by elevated CO2. • There are no beneficial effects of elevated CO2 on reproductive processes in the crops investigated (cotton, bean, rice, sorghum and soybean). • There are no beneficial interaction of temperature or UV-B on CO2 effects on reproductive processes. • Higher temperatures and higher UV-B aggravated the damage on many reproductive processes.

  38. Why Do We Need Models? • Provide quantitative description and understandingof biological problems • Help pinpoint knowledge gaps • Design critical experiments • Synthesize knowledge about different componentsof a system • Summarize data • Transfer research results to users

  39. Crop Model Applications for Natural Resource Management • Farm management (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization and harvest scheduling) • Resource management (e.g. several Govt. agencies and private comp. use) • Climate change and policy analysis • Production forecasts (e.g. global, regional and local forecasts) • Research and development (e.g. research priorities and guide fund allocations) • Turning information into knowledge (e.g. information overflow in every area including agricultural research)

  40. GOSSYM DATES CLYMAT TMPSOL FERT FRTLIZ SOIL RAIN RUNOFF GRAFLO PIX ET CHEM PREP UPTAKE CAPFLO PNET NITRIF GROWTH RUTGRO RIMPED NITRO ABSCISE PLTMAP MATAL PMAP FREQ OUTPUT COTPLT Model Mechanics GOSSYM: Model Structure • Models needs to be robust as simple models can’t predict complex process. • Like any other system, models needs to be continuously updated as new information becomes available. • Models needs to be extensively tested across diverse environments, soil conditions and cultural practices. • Information feedback from scientists, farmers and farm managers needs to be taken for user-friendliness. Mechanistic, process-level cotton simulation model - GOSSYM

  41. Crop Model Applications for climate Change Scenarios – Case Study Reddy et al., 2002

  42. Crop Model Applications for climate Change Scenarios – Regional Emphasis Doherty et al. 2003)

  43. Climate Change and Crop ProductivitySome Considerations • Climate change has no boundaries, and can’t be viewed in isolation. • We should consider other stresses on food production systems such as population dynamics, habitat destruction and fragmentation, land-use changes, biodiversity and invasive species dominance. • The current and projected changes in climate are unprecedented, and the ecosystems including managed ecosystems such as agriculture may not cope with the changes projected in climate.

  44. Climate Change and Crop ProductivitySome Considerations • Except limiting the causes of climate change, there are no other long-term strategies. • For a shorter-term, we must develop crop varieties which can withstand changes projected in climate to meet the growing demands for food. • We must also develop models that provide adequate warning or guidance for policy makers to act proactively rather than reactively. • Everybody and every nation should participate in the process, opportunities are there for everyone.

  45. Thanks and any Questions? We will be over 10 billion by 2050 in a much different climate than what we have today We need to produce enough goods and services in a sustainable way

  46. Leading America towards a better future through agricultural research and information

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