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NCEP Suite Review December 2013 Alaska Region

NCEP Suite Review December 2013 Alaska Region. Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Science and Services Manager. NWS Alaska Region. Alaska Aviation Weather Unit Alaska-Pacific RFC National Tsunami Warning Center Sea Ice Desk TV. EMC.

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NCEP Suite Review December 2013 Alaska Region

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  1. NCEP Suite ReviewDecember 2013Alaska Region Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Science and Services Manager

  2. NWS Alaska Region • Alaska Aviation Weather Unit • Alaska-Pacific RFC • National Tsunami Warning Center • Sea Ice Desk • TV

  3. EMC • Usual High Latitude/Complex Terrain Meteorological Modeling Issues • High Latitude Closed Lows • Blocking patterns • Ex-typhoons

  4. EMC • Usual High Latitude/Complex Terrain Meteorological Modeling Issues • Boundary Layer Processes • Steep Stable Surface inversions (20°C/100m every winter)=Extreme horizontal gradients • Boundary Layer Winds—terrain constrained • Moisture • Marine/Coastal stratus year round • Winter Arctic air mass stratus • Summer Convection

  5. EMC • Sea Ice: an “emerged” requirement • Growth, decay and movement • Binary vs. fractional At all time scales: day 1 to seasonal

  6. EMC • RTMA • Deep problems remain with temps, especially winter • Winds in terrain Lack of reliable gridded analysis is a significant contributor to NDFD grids still being “experimental” • WW3 • Incorporation/Improvements in sea ice • SREF • Include Alaska on mag.ncep.noaa.gov

  7. SPC • SREF plume diagrams not available via web • Pcpn Type • Fire Wx • Fire Weather Outlooks

  8. WPC & CPC • WPC • 4-7 day QPF • P-Type • CPC • Verification • Hazards Criteria • Seasonal scale sea ice forecasts (CFSv2)

  9. Communications: AWIPS • SBN (or VSAT when installed) only high reliability WFO comms…but saturated bandwidth • Alaska FOs require ~10 times large file sizes of a model clip than typical CONUS FO • Unable to include already available EMC guidance • GFS 3 hour resolution • NAM 3km • RAP • No experimental data sets • WAN at 168kb/s to AFG and AJK greatly hinders

  10. Communications: Internet • Terrestrial Internet • 3 to 5 times more expensive than CONUS • Multiple single points of failure (ANC & SEA) • TICAP: to keep current bandwidth would be cost prohibitive

  11. MDL • Coop MOS: new site • RAWS MOS • Surge Guidance • Especially Chukchi Sea, forecasts and forecast points

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