Climate Outlook – February 2013
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Climate Outlook – February 2013. Cool-Neutral ENSO Conditions Continue. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. NDJ 2012-13 SST forecast from Oct. Correlation ( w.r.t . map average) Glob 0.45 Trop 0.36 Uncentered correlation ( w.r.t . clim average):

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Climate Outlook – February 2013

Cool-Neutral ENSO Conditions Continue


SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season

NDJ

2012-13

SST

forecast

from Oct

Correlation

(w.r.t. map

average)

Glob 0.45

Trop 0.36

Uncentered

correlation

(w.r.t. clim

average):

Glob 0.55

Trop 0.48

NDJ

2012-13

SST obs

anom

(deg C)


Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast

NDJ

2012-13

precip

tercile

categ

obs

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G -0.007 (0.009)

T 0.008 (0.016)

Rate of Return:

G-0.007 (0.009)

T-0.006 (0.017)

Heidke skill:

G-0.007 (0.044)

T-0.008 (0.070)

GROC:

G 0.523 (0.540)

T 0.541 (0.564)

NDJ

2012-13

precip

probab

forecast

from

mid-Oct


Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast

NDJ

2012-13

temp

tercile

categ

obs

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G 0.129 (0.110)

T 0.278 (0.162)

Rate of Return:

G 0.130 (0.107)

T 0.299 (0.168)

Heidke skill:

G 0.298 (0.287)

T 0.552 (0.376)

GROC:

G 0.601 (0.585)

T 0.692 (0.638)

NDJ

2012-13

temp

probab

forecast

from

mid-Oct


Last week’s SST anomaly

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Stronger El Niño

El Nino

La Nina

StrongerLa Niña


La Nina

signature

in atmosphere

Outgoing

Longwave

Radiation

Anomalies

5N – 5S

Climate

Prediction

Center

NCEP

weak

El Nino

signature

in atmosphere

La Nina-looking


Stronger La Niña

***** *****

Stronger

El Niño






Feb

2011

Feb

2012

Feb

2013

Slightly enhanced trade winds

Thermocline deep in mid-Pacific, shallow in east

Oceanic ENSO state: neutral, leaning cold


Recent phase and strength of

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)



February 2013 SST forecasts

(plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right)

PLUS

MEAN

MINUS


Six IRI focus areas:

12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts

RPSS

GROC

RPSS

GROC

score

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G


This ppt file is available to anyone

on the shared drive:

……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr

or

……/tonyb/iri_html

/fctbriefingmonyr


Tropical Cyclone ForecastsJanuary 2013

NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones

ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy