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Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System

Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System. Jing Chen, Hua Tian, Gou Deng National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA. Contents. GEPS System Configuration GEPS Update Tigge relative research and use. T213 GEPS Configuration. T213L31. Obs. SSI+ATOVS. BGM perturbation method.

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Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System

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  1. Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System Jing Chen, Hua Tian, Gou Deng National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA

  2. Contents • GEPS System Configuration • GEPS Update • Tigge relative research and use

  3. T213 GEPS Configuration T213L31 Obs SSI+ATOVS BGM perturbation method Con.l Run IC1+ IC1- IC2+ IC2- Run all members. Product processing

  4. T213 GEPS Based on-BGM System Structure and Flow Chart

  5. Global EPS Upgrade Data assimilation from Optimal Interpolation  3DVAR +ATOVS in 2008 CMA old EPS CMA upgraded EPS Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) Control run forecast skill improve from 5 to 6.5 day

  6. New update in 2009 for Global TC ensemble prediction Old TC EPS： Perturbed TC environment Upgrade TC EPS：perturbed TC environment ＋ Vortex. Difference Old TC EPS New TC EPS

  7. The ensemble products update on the NMC’s web http://www.nmc.gov.cn/publish/nwp/eps-t213/probability/precipitation/index.htm

  8. Tigge relative research and use • Relative Research • Global EPS system upgrade; • Typhoon EPS system development; • Method for bias correction & combination, cluster; • Numerical model error analysis and NWP Probability; • Hydrology prediction drived by TIGGE data; • Method for severe weather potential forecast; • TIGGE-LAM researches • Data operational use • Medium-range forecast with TIGGE data; • CXML typhoon track EPS product;

  9. Global TC track EPS CXML digital products CXML ( Cyclone extensible Markup Language): No.0817, HIGOS (2008) CMA ECMWF NCEP JMA KMA UKMO

  10. CMA CMA ECMWF ECMWF NCEP NCEP Hydrology forecast based on downscaling TIGGE precipitation TIGGE precipitation in watershed

  11. Period and flood runoff forecast based on EPS data Super EPS flood runoff probability prediction

  12. THANKS

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